We are proud to announce The San Diego Padres Top 30 Prospects for 2012. Peter Friberg has been studying minor league and amateur baseball players for nearly 10 years and has been writing about Padres minor leaguers for approximately eight. Peter has compiled his top 30 prospects in the Padres system for 2012, we are now into the top 10 starting with #10 Casey Kelly

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2011 San Diego Padres Top 30 Prospects

10. Casey Kelly, RHP, 6’3” 195, Born: Oct. 4, 1989

Good: Casey Kelly, as a physical specimen, is everything you want in a pitcher. He is athletic. He has a repeatable delivery. He throws hard (touches 95). Physically, there is nothing you wouldn’t want in a pitcher.

Bad: Justin Verlander was recently awarded the 2011 AL Cy Young and the AL MVP. Coming up through the minors Verlander had pedestrian K/9 rates. Scouts said his performance would catch up his potential. That’s where we are with Casey Kelly. Kelly’s production does not resemble the talent he supposedly has… Number 1 starters are dominant. Dominance is not measured in velocity, dominance is function of results. Kelly has not dominated. In AA Kelly posted 6.4 K/9 and he struck out only 2.3 hitters for each walk. You want to see dominant pitchers strike out more than 8 hitters per 9 innings and have at least 2.5 strikeouts for every walk…

Casey may still develop into a dominant pitcher but to expect him, like Justin Verlander, to improve once he gets to the big leagues is wishful thinking.

Outlook: As I stated with Erlin and Wieland, Kelly will likely be back in San Antonio to begin 2012. Many minor league experts still call Casey Kelly a top 50 prospect but if he doesn’t start getting top shelf results even his most ardent supporters will jump off the bandwagon.