We are proud to announce The San Diego Padres Top 30 Prospects for 2012. Peter Friberg has been studying minor league and amateur baseball players for nearly 10 years and has been writing about Padres minor leaguers for approximately eight.

In all my years, this is the hardest list I have ever had the privilege of compiling.  When working on top prospect lists, I, in good faith, cannot simply plug in the top draft picks at or near the top of the list. I am not going to leave recently drafted players off the list; rather I am going to reward professional performance. The good news, in my system of ranking (mixing production with upside), is that while many of these top 10 players may graduate off the list this year, players with potentially even higher upside may invade the top 10 next year.

Additionally, the Padres take a lot of heat for not signing top-tier free agents. However, they do not have the financial resources to compete with the big boys for the top free agents. This current collection of minor leaguers has many future MLB’ers. The Padres need to avoid the temptation to spend money on stop-gap free agents and further block the potential stars in the system.  (Last Updated: 1/3/12)

1.

2.

Good: Gyorko does everything you want your offensive 3B to do. He hits for average, he hits for power (not a ton, but lots of doubles and at least average HR power), and he controls the strike zone. He profiles as the offensive 3B the Padres thought they had in Chase Headley.

Bad: There are two legitimate concerns with Gyorko: 1. Jedd’s 5’10” listing is generous. While pitchers are never going to knock the bat out of his hands, you can’t help wishing your MLB third baseman looked more like Adrian Beltre rather than David Eckstein. 2. Jedd’s defense gets mixed reviews; some say Gyorko will thicken-up and become too immobile to play 3B while others say he’ll never be elite but he’s more than adequate…

3. Yonder Alonso, 1B, 6’2” 215; Bats: Left, Throws: Right; Born: April 8, 1987

 

Good: Alonso hits for high average and controls the strike zone well. He has a short, compact, swing that translates into a high batting average and a fair amount of power. When he was in college, he was one of THE premiere hitters in all of college baseball.

Bad: Alonso doesn’t run well though he probably would not be classified as base-clogger. Also, despite being groomed for LF by the Reds (to get Alonso’s bat in the lineup with entrenched 1B and 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto) he doesn’t have the defensive or athletic acumen to handle a corner-outfield spot (at least not above-average). Lastly, while Alonso’s contact-ability and strike zone discipline skills grade out better than Blanks and Rizzo, he does not have their top shelf power.

Outlook: Alonso has spent all the time he needs in the minors. He even demonstrated his top flight hitting skills by hitting .330/.398/.545 in 88 MLB at-bats. Alonso will be given every opportunity to lock up the 1B job for the big league club.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	21	Sarasota	FLOR	A+	6	19	1	6	1	0	0	2	0	0	5	5	.316	.440	.368	.808
2009	22	3 Teams	3 Lgs	A+-AA-Rk	84	295	33	86	24	0	9	52	1	1	41	46	.292	.374	.464	.838
2009	22	Reds	GULF	Rk	6	15	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	.133	.278	.133	.411
2009	22	Sarasota	FLOR	A+	49	175	21	53	13	0	7	38	0	1	24	30	.303	.383	.497	.880
2009	22	Carolina	SOUL	AA	29	105	12	31	11	0	2	14	1	0	14	15	.295	.372	.457	.829
2010	23	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AAA-AA	132	507	69	147	36	2	15	69	13	3	56	92	.290	.362	.458	.820
2010	23	Carolina	SOUL	AA	31	101	19	27	5	0	3	13	4	2	19	16	.267	.388	.406	.794
2010	23	Louisville	IL	AAA	101	406	50	120	31	2	12	56	9	1	37	76	.296	.355	.470	.825
2011	24	Louisville	IL	AAA	91	358	46	106	24	4	12	56	6	5	46	60	.296	.374	.486	.860
4 Seasons					313	1179	149	345	85	6	36	179	20	9	148	203	.293	.370	.466	.837
AA (2 seasons)				AA	60	206	31	58	16	0	5	27	5	2	33	31	.282	.380	.432	.812
AAA (2 seasons)				AAA	192	764	96	226	55	6	24	112	15	6	83	136	.296	.364	.478	.842
A+ (2 seasons)				A+	55	194	22	59	14	0	7	40	0	1	29	35	.304	.389	.485	.874

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	21	CIN-min	6	25	19	1	6	1	0	0	2	0	0	5	5	.316	.440	.368	.808
2009	22	CIN-min	84	340	295	33	86	24	0	9	52	1	1	41	46	.292	.374	.464	.838
2010	23	CIN-min	132	566	507	69	147	36	2	15	69	13	3	56	92	.290	.362	.458	.820
2010	23	CIN	22	29	29	2	6	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	10	.207	.207	.276	.483
2011	24	CIN	47	98	88	9	29	4	0	5	15	0	0	10	21	.330	.398	.545	.943
2 Seasons			69	127	117	11	35	6	0	5	18	0	0	10	31	.299	.354	.479	.833
162 Game Avg.			162	298	275	26	82	14	0	12	42	0	0	23	73	.299	.354	.479	.833

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/2/2012.

4.

Good: The previous two seasons each saw Decker miss significant time from injuries. The best thing about Decker’s 2011 season was that he compiled 600+ at-bats for the Missions. He also continued his patient ways by walking more than 100 times for a .373 on-base rate. Another good thing about Decker is his performance (in several key areas) continues to disprove those who say his athleticism is subpar (successful in 15/20 stolen base attempts, played at least a few innings in CF in multiple games, etc.).

Bad: Decker has always hit for average. So his .236 batting average is baffling. What is particularly curious is that while Missions play in an extreme pitchers’ park in a hitters’ league, Decker hit dramatically better at home than on the road. Lastly, most critics rip Jaff for his physique. The one way this criticism is legitimate is that players with less-than-ideal bodies do not usually age well. While controlling someone like James Darnell through his late 20’s is beneficial, the Padres will want 6 years of Decker starting much younger.

Outlook: Decker’s 2011 season was not as bad as his .236 batting average suggests. And next year, he won’t be as good as his .350 batting average suggests. When Decker’s abilities meet Tucson’s elevation and park dimensions, we will see an offensive explosion. At worst, Decker should get a September big league audition.

5.

Good: Wieland was a guy who always put up solid numbers but was known as a command/control guy because his velocity topped out an ordinary 90-91. In the last year or two, Joe picked up a few ticks and now touches 93-94. Fortunately, his new-found velocity has not come at the expense of his control (21 walks in 155.2 innings). Before the velocity spike, Wieland was thought of as a #4 starter. Now he profiles as a #2-3.

Bad: While Wieland had always struck out hitters at a gaudy rate, he allows a fair number of hits… Additionally, after being promoted to AA, his K/9 rate fell from 10.1 in High-A to 6.9 in AA. A K/9 rate of 6.9 is completely respectable, but when he was striking out guys at 9+ in lower levels it causes people like me to wonder if his rates will fall further to below “acceptable” levels or will he revert to his more dominant levels by getting out of the hitter-friendly Texas League?

Outlook: Joseph, like Erlin, profiles as #2-3 starter. And like Erlin, it is most likely that he will be back in San Antonio next to begin the ’12 campaign.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	WHIP
2008	18	Rangers	ARIZ	Rk	5	1	1.44	13	7	43.2	32	8	7	2	8	41	4	0	3	0.916
2009	19	Hickory	SALL	A	4	6	5.31	19	18	83.0	102	67	49	7	24	73	5	0	6	1.518
2010	20	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-A+	11	7	4.07	26	25	148.0	151	72	67	10	25	133	5	1	5	1.189
2010	20	Hickory	SALL	A	7	4	3.34	15	15	89.0	84	36	33	4	15	71	3	0	1	1.112
2010	20	Bakersfield	CALL	A+	4	3	5.19	11	10	59.0	67	36	34	6	10	62	2	1	4	1.305
2011	21	3 Teams	2 Lgs	A+-AA	13	4	1.97	26	25	155.2	136	42	34	9	21	150	4	0	9	1.009
2011	21	Myrtle Beach	CARL	A+	6	3	2.10	14	13	85.2	78	23	20	7	4	96	2	0	7	0.957
2011	21	Frisco	TL	AA	4	0	1.23	7	7	44.0	35	9	6	2	11	36	0	0	1	1.045
2011	21	San Antonio	TL	AA	3	1	2.77	5	5	26.0	23	10	8	0	6	18	2	0	1	1.115
4 Seasons					33	18	3.28	84	75	430.1	421	189	157	28	78	397	18	1	23	1.160
A (2 seasons)				A	11	10	4.29	34	33	172.0	186	103	82	11	39	144	8	0	7	1.308
AA (1 season)				AA	7	1	1.80	12	12	70.0	58	19	14	2	17	54	2	0	2	1.071
A+ (2 seasons)				A+	10	6	3.36	25	23	144.2	145	59	54	13	14	158	4	1	11	1.099
Rk (1 season)				Rk	5	1	1.44	13	7	43.2	32	8	7	2	8	41	4	0	3	0.916

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

6. Yasmini Grandal, C, 6’2” 215, Bats: Switch, Throws: Right; Born: November 8, 1988

Good: Grandal headed into his junior year at the Univ. of Miami with zero questions about his defense. He was considered an MLB-ready defender at catcher. He received the ball well. He had a strong arm with a quick release. He was agile behind the plate… And he still has those abilities. That junior year he also came around as a hitter and ended as the 12^th overall draft pick by the Reds. He’s a switch-hitting catcher with some patience, good contact ability, and at least average power.

Bad: Ironically, Grandal’s question now, is about his defense. He reportedly is dropping pitches. This is almost certainly a psychological thing and should be easily corrected. But ask Steve Sax or Chuck Knobloch about throwing to 1B.

Outlook: Grandal reached AAA last year but only accumulated 28 at-bats there and he only 156 at-bats in AA. I believe he will begin 2012 back in AA. The Padres are presently pleased with Nick Hundley so there is no need to rush Grandal.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2010	21	Reds	ARIZ	Rk	8	28	4	8	1	0	0	1	0	1	4	4	.286	.394	.321	.715
2011	22	3 Teams	3 Lgs	A+-AA-AAA	105	374	69	114	31	0	14	68	0	1	59	97	.305	.401	.500	.901
2011	22	Bakersfield	CALL	A+	56	206	47	61	14	0	10	40	0	0	41	57	.296	.410	.510	.920
2011	22	Carolina	SOUL	AA	45	156	20	47	15	0	4	26	0	1	13	39	.301	.360	.474	.835
2011	22	Louisville	IL	AAA	4	12	2	6	2	0	0	2	0	0	5	1	.500	.667	.667	1.333
2 Seasons					113	402	73	122	32	0	14	69	0	2	63	101	.303	.401	.488	.888

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

7.

Good: Offensively, Darnell is ready for the big leagues. He hits for average. He hits for power. He even controls the strike zone. Physically, he has the ideal athleticism and stature you look for in an athlete. If he cannot handle 3B he has the athleticism to handle either corner OF spot and the arm strength to handle RF.

Bad: One big strike against Darnell according to most prospect mavens is that he’ll turn 25 in January. He’s essentially done developing. Another negative with James is his defense at the hot corner. He’s not bad and he has the athleticism to do it, but he continuously makes more errors and/or mistakes than you want your everyday 3B to make.

Outlook: Darnell will likely get a shot this Spring Training to take RF away from Will Venable. Or, if the Padres trade Chase Headley, Darnell will likely get a shot at 3B at least until Gyorko is ready. At worst, the Padres will send James back to Tucson for some AAA batting practice before a mid-season promotion.

8.

Good: Rymer is arguably the most exciting player in the Padres’ system. New GM Josh Byrnes said he might be the best player in the system. He combines elite speed with elite power. He even has adequate plate discipline. Rymer profiles as your prototypical power-armed RF with above average range.

Bad: For two consecutive years, Rymer was promoted aggressively then demoted before hitting well. His early season struggles are the only reason I do not have Liriano in the top 5.

Outlook: National experts are talking about Rymer going off in the Cal League this upcoming season. However, his home park is 425 to left-center. He might have dramatic home-road splits and his aggregate statistics may be less impressive than his 2012 performance actually is.

9.

Good: Anthony Bass has more stuff than most minor league experts ever gave him credit for. Additionally, as a shorter player (he is not as tall as his 6’2” official height lists him) he is further discredited as a prospect. Yet despite above-average performances year-in, year-out, Anthony is constantly overlooked.

Bad: I define dominance not with velocity readings but with results (specifically: K/9 rates). Anthony continually posts solid rates (well above the 5.5 K/9 minimum threshold but not near the 9.0 “Dominant,” level. Additionally, while Anthony has a solid 2-seam and 4-seam fastball, none of his other pitches are known as “out” pitches. Many still question Bass’ ability to succeed at the highest level without an above-average off-speed pitch.

Outlook: Anthony should begin the 2012 season in the Padres big league bullpen. He has the ability to become an above-average 4^th starter and possibility even a solid #3. Additionally, with a few years of success in the bullpen, and with his bulldog makeup, Anthony could even profile as a closer.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	GS	GF	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	WHIP
2008	20	Eugene	NORW	A-	2	2	2.10	25	0	21	7	34.1	25	12	8	3	14	0	41	1.136
2009	21	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-A+	12	3	2.55	28	26	1	0	123.2	112	48	35	8	39	0	89	1.221
2009	21	Fort Wayne	MIDW	A	9	3	2.19	18	18	0	0	90.1	79	31	22	5	25	0	69	1.151
2009	21	Lake Elsinore	CALL	A+	3	0	3.51	10	8	1	0	33.1	33	17	13	3	14	0	20	1.410
2010	22	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A+-AAA	8	8	3.33	28	28	0	0	138.0	131	64	51	10	23	0	112	1.116
2010	22	Lake Elsinore	CALL	A+	8	7	3.13	27	27	0	0	132.1	124	59	46	9	20	0	109	1.088
2010	22	Portland	PCL	AAA	0	1	7.94	1	1	0	0	5.2	7	5	5	1	3	0	3	1.765
2011	23	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-AAA	7	4	3.62	14	14	0	0	74.2	68	32	30	6	21	0	65	1.192
2011	23	Tucson	PCL	AAA	1	0	1.80	1	1	0	0	5.0	6	1	1	0	0	0	3	1.200
2011	23	San Antonio	TL	AA	6	4	3.75	13	13	0	0	69.2	62	31	29	6	21	0	62	1.191
4 Seasons					29	17	3.01	95	68	22	7	370.2	336	156	124	27	97	0	307	1.168
AAA (2 seasons)				AAA	1	1	5.06	2	2	0	0	10.2	13	6	6	1	3	0	6	1.500
A+ (2 seasons)				A+	11	7	3.21	37	35	1	0	165.2	157	76	59	12	34	0	129	1.153
A (1 season)				A	9	3	2.19	18	18	0	0	90.1	79	31	22	5	25	0	69	1.151
AA (1 season)				AA	6	4	3.75	13	13	0	0	69.2	62	31	29	6	21	0	62	1.191
A- (1 season)				A-	2	2	2.10	25	0	21	7	34.1	25	12	8	3	14	0	41	1.136

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

10. Keyvius Sampson, RHP, 6’0” 185, Born: Jan. 6, 1991

Good: I love high K/9 rates. Last year I noted in my top 30 that Sampson’s 12.14 rate led Padres’ starting pitchers. This year, he followed up his solid ’10 campaign with a similarly stellar 10.9 K/9 rate. Keyvius was similarly stingy when it came to allowing hits (only 81 over 118 IP). Sampson was the unquestioned ace of the Fort Wayne staff.

Bad: There really isn’t anything bad to say about Sampson’s 2011 performance. If we’re picking nits, he walked too many (3.66 BB/9) but he was so unhittable that it countered some wildness. The only other criticism is height-related. Like virtually every other pitcher listed 6’0” or shorter, his height is probably inflated.

And if he really is less than 6’0” the requisite questions about durability arise. Those questions probably are not fair, every pitcher faces questions about durability; pitching is not a natural act.

Outlook: Keyvius will join the prospect, Rymer Liriano, in Lake Elsinore in 2012. Sampson needs to work on his control and staying healthy. If Keyvius is able to do those things, he will rocket up this list and ensure his place in a future Padres rotation.