We are proud to announce The San Diego Padres Top 30 Prospects for 2011.  Peter Friberg has been studying minor league and amateur baseball players for nearly 10 years and has been writing about minor leaguers for approximately seven.  Most talent evaluators get pigeon-holed into either the stathead camp or the scouting camp.  While Peter's origins of baseball evaluation techniques are definitely numbers-driven, he absolutely takes the scouting side of things into consideration.

The Padres have routinely taken a lot of criticism for having a below-average system, for drafting poorly, and under Kevin Towers, for not taking high school athletes. While the Padres have certainly had spectacular disappointments with their first round selections (to put it mildly), they have used many high draft picks on high school talents (Tate, Williams, Sampson, Decker, Cumberland, Burke, and Hunter were high-schoolers drafted in the top 4 rounds under Towers and co. since 2006). Even before the additions from the Adrian Gonzalez trade, the Padres system had solid depth and some fascinating pitching talent.

Peter has compiled his top 30 prospects in the Padres system and we at the Friarhood are excited to kick things off with...

1. Casey Kelly, RHP, 6’3” 195, Born: Oct. 4, 1989

Kelly, son of former big league catcher, Pat Kelly, was the top rated prospect in the Boston organization this offseason and last. He is an uber-athletic pitcher who played shortstop and who had received a full ride scholarship to Tennessee to play quarterback. He’s still young – he just turned 21 – and has already pitched in AA. He struggled some in his 2010 campaign by being far too hittable (.307 BAA). He has a very respectable 7.67 K/9 rate and reportedly throws an extremely “heavy” ball. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and can touch 94… He will repeat AA in San Antonio and should see improvements solely from pitching in the Missions’ extreme pitchers’ park. If everything works out, he profiles as a number 2 or 3 starter. He should reach the bigs for good in 2012.

Minor League Statistics:

2. Jaff Decker, OF, 5’10” 190, Born: Feb. 23, 1990

Jaff (pronounced “Jeff”) is as close to a sure thing as there is in the Padres system. Despite only playing 79 games in 2010 and getting off to a slow start after missing spring training, Decker only hit .262/.374/.500 for the High-A Lake Elsinore Strom. But that masks his two-half season. Pre-All Star break, the left-handed outfielder hit .195/.256/.319 in 113 at-bats. After the break, Decker hit .305/.439/.616 in 177 at-bats. When you consider that he hit .343/.513/.521 in 2008 and .299/.442/.514 in 2009. You can see that his first-half numbers in ’10 were not representative of the type of hitter Decker is. Now for the bad news: Decker is conservatively listed at 190 much the way Tony Gwynn was still listed at 185 into his late 30’s. Decker isn’t fat, he’s just thick. He is much more athletic than his frame suggests and even played a respectable CF when he was in the Arizona League. He also threw 93 off the mound as a high school pitcher, so he has the arm to handle RF but in all probability, as his body matures he will gain muscle and bulk and end up strictly as a LF.

Minor League Statistics:

3. Simon Castro, RHP, 6’5” 210, Born: April 9, 1988

Are you a glass half-empty person, or are you the more positive, glass-half-full type? The answer to that question likely explains how you feel about Simon Castro. On the positive side of the ledger, he skipped High-A and posted a 2.92 ERA in AA. On the other hand, his K/9 rate fell from 10.07 in Low-A in 2009 to 7.43 in 2010 in AA. K/9 rates are one of my favorite statistics for predicting future success in pitchers. So despite Castro’s success, I cannot rate him as high as some. Castro still features a mid-90’s FB and is essentially ready for the big leagues. He should split time between AAA and San Diego in 2011.

Minor League stats:

4. Donavan Tate, CF, 6’3” 200, Born: Sept. 27, 1990

Unfortunately for the Padres and their fans, the Padres first round selections have either bombed (Matt Bush), suffered injuries (Cesar Carrillo, etc.), stalled out in their career development (Matt Antonelli), or not been the player the fans wanted (Nick Schmidt instead of Rick Porcello). Donovan Tate was supposed to be the high-priced, high-upside, uber-athletic player that reversed the curse. Then, after signing with the Padres, he suffered a muscle –separation from his pelvic bone. That injury prevented him from getting on the playing field in 2009. Then, in 2010, Tate suffered various other injuries that delayed the beginning of his playing career until the latter part of the season. When he finally started playing last year he struggled and only hit .222/.356/.344. However, the news is not all bad. Tate is probably the most gifted athlete in the Padres system. And he was the team MVP of the Instructional League. Tate is still several years from being big league-ready and 2011 will be his first season of full-season professional baseball. Tate struck out far too frequent in the Arizona League but did show patience… He will need to make more consistent contact as he develops.

Minor League Statistics:

AZL Padres: .222/.356/.344 in 90 AB with 5 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 15/41 BB/SO ratio, 7/8 in SB attempts

5. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, 6’3” 220, Born: Aug. 8, 1989

Rizzo is one of the pieces Boston used to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. Ironically, Rizzo actually profiles similarly to a young Adrian… Please do not read that to say that I think Rizzo will be as good Adrian. I think Rizzo will a tough time wresting the 1B job away from Kyle Blanks. It could be that the Padres try to accomplish the same thing – getting both hitters on the field - with Anthony and Kyle Blanks that they did with Gonzalez and Blanks. Rizzo is noted for his plus power and he is a smooth defender… Unless Blanks turns into an All Star, Rizzo could assume the 1B position as early as 2012.

Minor League Statistics:

6. James Darnell, 3B, 6’2” 195, Born: Jan. 19, 1997

Unfortunately for Padres fans, there is not one top prospect whose 2010 campaign didn’t come with significant problem, concern, or injury. In Darnell’s case, he started slowly and then injured his hand/finger. Pre-All Star break, Darnell hit .215/.301/.354 (AA stats only) after the break, he hit .297/.378/.441. Darnell has enough speed, defense, and arm (as well as hitting ability and power) to be considered a potential 5-tool talent. However, he doesn’t show a lot of speed on the base paths and his work at third needs improvement. He may end up in right field. If Darnell gets off to a good ’11 campaign and Will Venable struggles in RF, we could see James in San Diego soon. Even without that, Darnell will likely become a full-time member of the big league team by mid-2012 at the latest.

Minor League Statistics:

7. Cory Luebke, LHP, 6’4” 215, Born: March 4, 1985

In baseball even the top minds frequently draft poorly. There isn’t one highly respected talent evaluator who, looking back, hasn’t thought, “What was I thinking?” Now I do not put myself in that category (“highly respected talent evaluator”) but Luebke is that guy for me. In 2007, I was following the draft on my computer and I about screamed when I heard the Padres drafted Cory Luebke. “Who!?!” Shortly after Cory began his professional career he became one of my favorites.

As a lefty, he has slightly above-average velocity, sitting at 89-92 and touching 93-94. He also has good offspeed stuff and can mix his pitches well. He profiles best as a 3-4 starter. Like many on the top prospects on this list, Luebke missed time in 2010 due to injuries. He may start the season back in AAA but he should be in San Diego at some point and be there for good by the All Star break this coming season.

Minor League Statistics:

8. Drew Cumberland, 2B/SS, 5’10” 175, Born: Jan. 13, 1989

If Cumberland were consistently healthy, he would rate much higher on this list. However, he has never accumulated more than 303 at-bats in a season (which he did in 2010) and he has never played more than 77 games in a season (as he did in 2009). In a dream world, Cumberland would be that elusive 5-tool shortstop, however, he may not have quite enough arm and/or consistency to handle short and he will never be above average in terms of power. He is however, an excellent athlete with solid on-base and hitting skills. He has an aggregate minor league slash-line of .315/.379/.429. If he can stay healthy he would make an excellent second baseman. He will likely begin 2011 back in AA San Antonio but he should be in line for mid-season promotion. If he can stay healthy, he could reach the bigs at the end of 2011.

Minor League Statistics:

9. Jedd Gyorko, 3B, 5’10” 195, Born: Sept. 23 1988

Gyorko was rated as one of the best college bats in the entire 2010 draft. He played shortstop in college but he lacks the requisite athleticism to remain there as a professional. Some think he could handle second (which would keep his value higher) while others say he will play 3B. So far the Padres have kept Jedd at third but they could give him a chance at second as well. Despite questions about where he would play, most expected Gyorko to be unavailable when the second round began. While he only has average power (for a third baseman), his hitting ability and plate discipline are well above average. The Padres may have gotten a steal by selecting Jedd in the second round. Like they do with many advanced collegiate hitters, the Padres will probably assign Gyorko to High-A Lake Elsinore to begin 2011.

Minor League Statistics:

10. Matt Lollis, RHP, 6’7” 230, Born: Sept. 11, 1990

Matt Lollis was ticketed for big things when he hurt his shoulder in his first start as a high school senior. Tony Gwynn and the Aztecs saved a scholarship for the big right-hander but Lollis elected to go the JUCO route instead and enrolled at Riverside CC. The Padres drafted Lollis in the fifteenth round with very little fanfare. Now the big hurler is one of the best pitchers in an increasingly deep system. Lollis features a fastball that sits in the 91-93 range and has tremendous down-angle thanks to his height. Many experts believe he may have another tick or two of velocity as he continues to physically mature.

Minor League Statistics: