Every year toward the end of January, baseball fans get several more reasons to get pumped for the start of Spring Training and the upcoming season. Those reasons are tied up in the issuance of annual prospect rankings. In this digital age where baseball happens online as much as between the lines, the release of annual Top 10 or top 20 prospect lists has proliferated to the point where it can be difficult to gather, digest, and interpret all of this information. For that reason we here at the Friarhood have compiled our first annual “Consensus Top 10 Prospects” list for Padres' fans. In essence, we have compiled the Top 10 prospect lists from some of the most well-known and well-respected prospect publications, both national and Padre-centric, and combined them to create a clear(ish) picture of who are the Padres' best prospects by consensus. To reach this consensus we averaged each player's place across our selected top tens, a ranking of one, for example, was assigned one “point;” while being unranked was assigned a score of 12 “points”. Therefore a score of 1.0 would be the highest possible score while a score of 12 is the lowest. Without further ado, lets get to the prospects!

Padres Top Prospects: Consensus Version

Tier 1: Top Prospects - Scouts agree, these four young men are far and away the best prospects in the Padres' system.

Casey Kelly - Son of former big league catcher Pat Kelly, Casey Kelly only converted to pitching full time at the beginning of last season. He was the youngest pitcher in the AA Eastern League, and despite a 5.31 ERA and a .307 batting average against scouts had no problems placing at the top of the heap as far as Padre prospects are concerned. With some claiming that Casey’s struggles were due in large part to an uptick in velocity. Kelly was ranked 1^st on eight out of nine top tens, his lowest ranking came at the hands of Geoff Young at Ducksnorts who ranked him 3^rd.

Simon Castro - The big Dominican righty was the only player aside from Kelly who clearly separated himself from the rest of the pack as far as prospect score is concerned. Simon’s season was littered with accolades, he ended the season with a short cameo for AAA Portland but still finished as the Texas League leader in ERA (2.92), WHIP (1.10), and batting average against (.223). He was also named the starter for the World Team in the 2010 Futures Game. Castro was ranked 2^nd by five publications and a 4^th was his lowest.

Anthony Rizzo - The slugging first baseman received in the Adrian Gonzalez trade saw his raw power blossom into performance last year. Rizzo mashed 25 homers and 42 doubles in 128 games across two leagues while batting .260, significantly down from his career average. The Padres are hoping that his post all-star .281 average is closer to the norm. Anthony spent most of the previous season recovering from cancer. Rizzo was adored, for the most part, by national publications receiving a 2^cd ranking from Baseball America, a 3^rd from Baseball Prospectus, and a 3^rd from Fangraphs. He received less love however, from local publications netting a 5^th and a 6^th from The Friarhood and Ducksnorts respectively.

Jaff Decker -  Did not start his 2010 season well. A hamstring injury limited him to just 29 games in the first half and when he did play he batted a paltry .195 with an unprecedented 41-8 strikeout to walk ratio. During his 50 post all-star appearances however Decker got back to his usual routine of raking (career .295/.435/.510) by batting .305 with 14 homers and nine doubles. Sadly injury would again rob him of a significant portion of his season when a misguided fastball broke his hand causing him to miss the final three weeks of the season. His perception as a prospect is opposite that of Anthony Rizzo, he was ranked 1^st by Ducksnorts and 2^nd by The Friarhood, but received only 7^th rankings from both Baseball America and Fangrphs. It seems concerns about Jaff’s body type are not shared by those who are very familiar with him.

Tier 2: The 6’s and 7’s - The four prospects in this tier are an excellent illustration of the classic scouting debate of floor vs. ceiling. While prospects such as Donavan Tate amaze scouts with nearly unrivaled athleticism and talent, without strong work ethic and mental focus it is perfectly reasonable to assume they will never get past AA. Prospects in the mold of a Corey Luebke, on the other hand, are as close as it gets to a sure thing in the prospect world but do not project to ever be impact players. Where these players rank is often dependent on how scouting services weigh a player’s proverbial floor vs. his ceiling.

Donavan Tate - As the number three pick in the ’09 draft, Donavan, son of former NFL running back Lars Tate, received a 6.25 million dollar bonus. His professional career got off to a rocky start. Immediately after signing, Tate required surgery to correct a pelvis fracture and not long after, Donavan fractured a cheekbone in an ATV accident. He did not begin playing baseball for the Padres until last season and even then Tate missed significant time with a jammed shoulder early in the AZL season and missed most of the end of the season thanks to a stomach ailment. Having said all that, he has by far the highest ceiling of any player in the system with three above-average tools in his raw power, defense, and throwing arm. Tate ranked as high as 4^th (Friarhood) and as low as 10^th (Sporting News).

Cory Luebke - Corey also began his season battling injury. He suffered an oblique injury during spring training and was unable to join the AA Missions until late May. Cory hit the ground running upon his return, posting a 2.40 ERA in 8 AA starts, a 2.97 through 9 AAA starts, and a respectable 4.08 during his September call up with the Padres. Cory was a fairly polished product when the Padres drafted him out of Ohio State in the ’07 draft and he has continued to refine his game to the point where he is very near his ceiling as a number three or four starter. Luebke is the first prospect on our list to be unranked in one of the top 10’s (ESPN). Sporting News gave Cory his highest ranking at 3^rd.

Reymond Fuentes - Any discussion of Reymond Fuentes usually begins with some form of “Didja know he was Carlos Beltran’s cousin?”. Now that we have that out of the way, Fuentes was a first round pick in the ’09 draft and has gotten his career off to a quality start since then, compiling a .276 average through 519 at bats while stealing 51 bases and being caught stealing only 10 times.  Fuentes is known as a top-tier defender despite a so-so arm, and is a lock to stick in center field. Fuentes is not without his warts however, as he has yet to find much discernable power in his swing (.378 slugging pct.) despite a very athletic body and needs to work on pitch recognition. Fuentes was left off of both The Friarhood and Ducksnorts Top 10 lists but his prospect score received a huge lift by receiving 4^th rankings from Baseball America and Fangraphs.

Drew Cumberland - Cumberland is the Padres' only real middle infield prospect and he bats left-handed, and as such is extremely valuable. Cumberland was ranked 4^th in the minor leagues with a .365 batting average when he got bumped up to AA in June. Cumberland, like Donavan Tate, has some very nice high-end tools with his contact hitting and raw speed, but his young career has been slowed significantly by injuries across four pro seasons. It is difficult to say that Cumberland is an injury concern since all the injuries have been to various parts of his body - i.e. his hand, oblique and knee. Cumberland was left off of one Top 10 list (Fangraphs), but Sporting News, Baseball Prospectus, and Ducksnorts were closest to his consensus number at 6^th, 6^th and 7^th respectively.

Tier 3: The Up-and-Comers - The final three players who have a prospect score of better than “10” are young talents who still have quite a bit to prove. Two of them were more or less unknown assets at the beginning of the 2010 season and burst onto the scene in the second half of the season, while the other is a former Top 10 prospect looking to bounce back from a difficult season. These three look to factor into the top 2/3 of this list next year.

James Darnell - After a stellar 2009 campaign that saw Darnell hit close to .300 with 20 homers and 35 doubles across two levels, he suffered significant setbacks in 2010. After struggling through the early part of the season James developed a cyst in his right hand which caused him to miss several weeks. A very patient hitter with above average contact skills, the biggest problem for James is sub-par defense at 3^rd base, he lead Texas League 3^rd baseman in errors and may not have the offensive profile to fit in a corner outfield spot. Darnell was left out of the Top 10 by four different publications but got a nice boost receiving a 6^th and a 4^th ranking from The Friarhood and Ducksnorts respectively.

Matt Lollis - As a 15^th round draft choice out of Riverside Community College who signed for $100,000 in the ’09 draft, nobody expected much from Matt Lollis or even knew who he was for that matter. This year however Lollis will be hard to miss, and not just because of the 6’7” 280 pound frame that earned him the nickname “Big Country”. After debuting in short season Eugene with a 2.86 ERA Lollis only got stronger after his promotion to Fort Wayne where he posted a 1.66 ERA with a sparkling 1.10 WHIP. His four pitch mix should help him advance through the system quickly moving forward. For the most part Lollis was ranked in the 8-10 range but Baseball America awarded him his highest rank at 5^th.

Jedd Gyorko - Jedd was drafted in the supplemental round of last year’s draft and signed immediately, allowing him to collect 268 at bats across two levels in a solid pro debut. Gyorko was a college shortstop but has been shifted to third for the time being. Despite major questions about his defense coming out of college, Jedd proved quite competent at the hot corner while splitting time with Edinson Rincon.  Gyorko projects as a solid contact hitter in the future; the biggest question mark with him is whether his power will develop enough to give him a 3^rd baseman’s offensive profile. Jedd received four 8^th rankings and a 9^th, so scouts seem more or less agreed on his standing in the organization.

Honorable Mentions: Of the final four players on our list, three received one ranking of 10, while the other received a 10 and a six, despite being left off the remaining lists. None of them played above low-A ball last year but could be set for big things in 2011.

Jason Hagerty - Hagerty enjoyed a huge year a Fort Wayne’s everyday catcher, leading the Midwest league with a .917 OPS and was one of only three catchers in all of Minor League baseball to finish a season with an OPS over .900 (not even Yankees uber-prospect Jesus Montero managed that). I had one scout tell me that the Padres were “giddy” with Hagerty’s development behind the plate and he is now viewed as the catcher of the future internally.

Adys Portillo - With a prospect score 11.75, Portillo is a name Padre fans have become very familiar with since he signed in 2008, so it is easy to forget that he didn’t turn 18 until December of ’09. Portillo struck out 62 batters in 62 innings at short-season Eugene but walked 40 and has yet to develop a solid secondary offering. With age and experience Portillo should turn his prodigal talent into more tangible results this year.

Keyvius Sampson - Sampson was the Padres' 4^th round selection in ’09 for 2^nd round money and he showcased one of the best arms in the Northwest League this year before he ran into arm trouble and had his season shut down a month early.

Edinson Rincon - Rincon was not able to build on his .300/.415/.468 short season debut the way the Padres has hoped, but he still managed 48 extra base hits while splitting time between 3^rd base and DH for the Fort Wayne Tincaps. Edinson is certainly an “adventure” defensively, leading the Midwest League with 36 errors. His bat will carry him to the Majors eventually but it likely won’t be at 3^rd base.

Top 10 lists provided by: Friarhood.com, baseballamerica.com, fangraphs.com, ducksnorts.com, minorleagueball.com, The Sporting News, baseballprospectus.com

Statistics provided by MILB.com