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| Logan Forsythe: Scouting Report |
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| On the Farm - Tucson Padres | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Written by Matt Baker | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sunday, 08 May 2011 19:53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bat: Forsythe employs a very fluid, hands-oriented swing. He starts the hands at the shoulder, using a very small slide step and hand load he then cuts a very level, direct path to the ball. He generates above average bat speed but not exceptional. Quality plate coverage, a bat that spends a lot of time in the hitting zone, and a fantastic approach help Logan’s bat play way up from it’s true talent level. He excels at hitting balls the other way and even shows the ability to hit close pitches inside-out. His lack of premium bat speed leaves him vulnerable to premium velocity and fastballs inside, and like all young hitters Forsythe struggles with good breaking pitches down and away. I believe his hitting will improve as he continues to adjust to advanced pitchers who know how to work a count as well as he does. Overall though Logan has not yet caught up to AAA pitching and is striking out more often than usual, however he is improving quickly considering recent injury problems and has the potential to be a .275 to .285 hitter in the big leagues.
Approach: Forsythe has a remarkable pairing of skills in his ability to identify pitch type and location, and in his talent for choosing when and how to swing at those pitches. Forsythe is an extremely patient hitter, most notable is his ability to lay off borderline pitches and make pitchers work. He turns in long, quality at bats frequently and his keen eye allows him to make good contact with off-speed pitches. On the other hand, I have heard more than once that Forsythe can be overly passive at times. This year Forsythe is said to be trying to be more aggressive in hitters counts and the results have shown in a good batting average, power output above his career averages, and a K:BB ratio also well above his career norms. I believe Forsythe’s on base numbers will improve as he continues to adjust to advanced pitching and learns to attack pitches in the zone more often, and could potentially be in the top 10-20 in the NL in walks if he reaches his full potential.
Power: Home runs have never been and probably never will be a big part of Forsythe’s game. When he does display power it shows most prominently to left center field, his weakest area seems to be pulling the ball for power. When it comes to doubles power Forsythe seems well suited for PETCO, he has a talent for drilling balls toward the gaps (again, especially to left center) and he has decent enough speed to make most of them count. I think Forsythe will likely max out around 15 homers and 30 to 35 doubles per season in his major league career. But being the natural athlete that he is it would not shock me if he eventually topped out around 20 homers and 40 doubles if he maximizes his potential.
Speed: Logan is not an above average runner by any stretch of the imagination but he checks in at solid average. He shows an above average ability to read pitchers from the base paths which helps his average speed play up while on base. He also shows a good feel for situational base running and gets good jumps going first to third. Forsythe is not an aggressive base stealer and likely will max out around 10 to 15 steals per season as a major leaguer.
Glove: As stated above defense is the biggest question mark when it comes to Forsythe. All of the physical tools are there for him to be an able defender, especially at second, but despite his natural talent he is not yet a natural infielder. This shows up often in his defensive game, he can display above average quickness, reaction time, range (especially to his left) and make snap throws from multiple angles; he can then struggle with two hoppers and balls he has to wait back on. He rushes throws often and his extensive time at third is obvious when he tries to muscle up on a throw and airmails first base. It seems the more time he has to think about a play the more prone he is to errors. Second base is a new position for Forsythe however and I believe that his athleticism and additional experience will not only help him become competent at the position but an eventual plus defender.
Arm: A 50 arm would have been adequate if Forsythe were still at third, but it will play above average at 2nd assuming he learns how to utilize it effectively. He makes an adequate glove/hand transition and can deliver the ball from multiple angles and positions with good velocity. Unfortunately Forsythe can often rush himself and overthrow his target. A large majority of his errors are of the throwing variety and a large portion of those are throws over the head of his target. Forsythe can make excellent catch-spin and throw plays but seems to struggle with some of the easier plays. Right now his arm plays down significantly. Knowing that, it is safe to assume that more instruction and experience at the position will help his arm play at its true talent level.
Overall: All things considered I am quite bullish on Forsythe’s future as a pro. While some of the grades may seem low, if he peaks I have him with one 7 tool and two 6’s, that’s a borderline all-star folks. On the downside, at 24 he is no longer a young prospect and will need considerable improvement to reach his full potential. If his development slows this year in AAA, or especially if he is forced to fill a part time roll with the big club for the rest of this season, he may never reach his ceiling. If he manages even minimal development during and after this season however, he would still be a useful utility player. I believe his athleticism will be the difference maker in getting him there either way. In a perfect world he would finish out this year in AAA and perhaps even start there next year to fully adjust to veteran pitching, become a sounder defensive second baseman, and enter the majors competent and confident in all the facets of his game.
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