San Diego Padres 2011 draft profiles

The San Diego Padres have 5 draft picks in the first 60 players in the draft (10, 25, 48, 54, 58) then the 82nd pick in the 2nd round, 112 in the 3rd round and every 30th pick after that for the remainder of the draft. The #10 pick is compensation for not signing Karsten Whitson last year and is not protected. This means that if they don’t sign the player they don’t get any compensation next year. Most sound thinking will tell you that the player drafted in this spot should be a guaranteed sign. That most likely means a college player that doesn’t have unreasonable expectations for a contract.

This year’s draft, unlike 2009 and 2010, is more wide open regarding the top pick or the top three to four picks. It is becoming more clear who is favored for those spots but with the conference tournaments coming up the list could continue to shift around in a fluid fashion up till the last minute before the draft (June 6). All of these factors make for interesting prognostications about who will be the Padres top pick as well as the #25 pick that comes up later in the first round (their natural pick).

There are some brave mock drafters out there who are willing to name the top 60 picks, which would give us some added entertainment as that would cover the Padres first five picks. But I am having enough trouble trying to narrow down the first two picks, much less taking it out to the first five.

Following are some profiles of the players most often associated with the #10 and #25 picks. This draft is very heavy in college and prep pitchers that are expected to go in the first round. The Padres brass, as they did last year, state they will draft according to talent at their spots. That would imply a heavy emphasis on pitching early in the draft. If you are looking at need they would do well to focus on catching and middle infield help. We had some fun with this last year as the debate showed many different ways of looking at the choices. As it turns out, it mattered little as the Padres were not able to sign their first pick. But it should be pointed out that we were successful in including the pick among the profiles that were done here on the Friarhood site. Hopefully we will have the same good fortune this draft year.

So here goes. Please join in the discussion and leave your comments, agree or disagree.

Pick # 10 in the first round-- The San Diego Padres

Taylor Jungmann   RHP  Texas  Jr.   6- 6, 220 lbs    21 yrs old from Temple, TX

Jungmann is highly scouted and may not last until the 10th pick. He has had a terrific ’11 season so far with a 12-0 record and 0.95 ERA in 14 games and 114 IP with 23 BB and 109 SO. He has done nothing but help himself with his ranking through this season.  In 2010 he was 8-3 2.02 ERA in 123 IP and 129 SO so he has shown improvement since last season. His fastball ranges 96-97 mph and has above average movement. He also throws an average slider with potential for development. His changeup is also a potentially above average pitch but needs some work. His curveball is not used much and is an inconsistent offering. His projection is significant but he does have a somewhat unorthodox mechanical approach and as a result has occasional command issues. With his size and potential for further development he should not slip out of the first 10 picks.

Matt Barnes   RHP   UConn    6- 4   205 lbs    20 yr old

Another tall right hander with projection, Barnes has an 11-3 record with 1.11 ERA in 14 games and 105 IP with 26 BB and 97 SO for this season. He throws a 92-96 mph fastball consistently which tops out at 98 and a very effective 2- seamer that sits around 90 mph with good movement. His upper 70’s curve is a plus pitch and he his able to hold his pitches deep into games. His cutter is getting better and he throws an occasional changeup. He throws with a minimal effort delivery and has a loose arm but has issues with repeating his mechanics at times which causes some lapses in his command. There is also room for development with his body so his projection might go even higher. He has also done well this season and has improved his draft ranking in recent weeks.

Jed Bradley   LHP   Georgia Tech   6- 4  224 lbs   Jr    20 yrs old out of Huntsville, AL

A good athlete, Bradley throws from a 3/4 arm slot with good mechanics and the ability to locate. He is considered one of the most complete pitchers in the draft who has good command, maintains his velocity and has good size and durability. He throws a 91-94 mph fastball (topping at 96) with good movement, a plus changeup and a good slider. He will also throw a curve that sits 77-78 mph and is a solid pitch. His performance this season has not been as impressive as his previous years and he approaches the draft with a 6- 3 record and 3.71 ERA over 85 IP with 28 BB and 94 SO. His 2010 Cape ERA was 1.98 in 41 IP and is more of a reflection of his previous work. He has held onto his top 10 ranking with most scouts despite his uneven season so far.

George Springer   OF   UConn   R/R   Jr   6- 3   200 lbs   21 yr old from New Britain, Conn

An outfielder with CF ability, Springer is felt by many to have the highest upside of any of the college position players in the draft. He is a true 5 tool player in college and has the potential to hold those skills at the major league level. He is a line drive hitter with tremendous power potential but with a high maintenance swing. Possessing fast hands and explosive bat speed there are only concerns regarding maintaining his mechanics. He started the season slowly but has since improved and is sitting at .337 with 3 HR and 26 RBI with a .581 slugging percentage and 10 stolen bases.

Defensively he has all the tools. Plus speed, above average arm and lots of range and should be able to stick in centerfield, even in Petco Park.It’s really impossible this draft season to predict the order of the first 10 picks or even who will go beyond the first four or so. Every mock draft out there reflects a different outlook by the analysts and everyone is just guessing on what each organization is looking for. There are so many quality players in the first round that draft order could surprise even the most seasoned veterans.

No one can even agree on the first player taken as there have been fluctuations in performance, injuries and signability issues. This will be the first time in at least 2 years that this level of uncertainty has dominated.

Look for 3B Anthony Rendon (Rice), LHP Danny Hultzen (Viriginia), OF Bubba Starling (Kansas-HS), RHP Gerrit Cole (UCLA) and RHP Dylan Bundy (Oklahoma-HS) to vie for the top 5 spots in the draft and could conceivably go in any order. There are also 2 or 3 other players pushing to get into that list ( SS Lindor, RHP Bauer, SS Baez).

For those of us who get a kick out of following the draft and the minor leagues, this is like Christmas.

Round 1, pick # 25

This one is even more of a crap shoot than the earlier pick. Once you get past the first ten picks in the draft there is almost no way to predict the rest of the draft. But because this draft is so deep in talent for the first round there will still be many top level players waiting to be chosen lower in the round. The following is a list, with some profile info, of who the Padres might target. I am making these picks based on need rather than signability as there are definite areas within the system that lack depth (catcher and middle infield).

Andrew Susac  C  Oregon St   soph.    R/R   6- 1   205 lbs

A solid catch and throw guy with plus power and plus arm strength with quick hands and advanced foot work. He blocks the plate well and has performed well this season with a .352 average in 108 AB. There is a lack of quality catchers in this draft and Susac may not still be on the board when the Padres pick.

Levi Michael  SS  No Carolina   Jr.  S/R  5- 10   180 lbs  20 yr old

Has also played 2B and 3B, he has good bat speed, doubles power, a good base runner/stealers (25/31), a potential lead off hitter with a good eye at the plate. His defensive range is the biggest question but he has good arm strength and accuracy. His 2011 line of .311 in 96 AB with 12 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR and 46 RBI with 14 stolen bases reflects his skills as a hitter.

Dillon Howard   RHP  Searcy  HS- AK    6- 2  200 lbs   18 yr old

He throws a 92-94 mph fastball with good sink and an inconsistent curve and changeup. With only average command, he needs development with his secondary pitches and will need to continue to progress in those areas to reach his projection. But he is a reported baseball rat who works hard and has played many different positions beside pitching. The scouts differ in their opinions of him but he is mentioned often as a first rounder.

Cory Spangenberg   3B   Indian River St (FL)  L/R  6- 0  184lbs   20 yr old

A late bloomer physically, he has above average speed and may not stay in the infield but possibly projects better as an OF. He is an above average hitter with good bat control and developing power. Corner outfield would be the most likely position for him with only an average throwing arm.

Robert Stephenson  RHP  Alhambra HS-CA   R/R   6- 2  185 lbs  18 yr old

Stephenson threw back to back no hitters to start his season and has a 93-95 mph fastball that tops out at 97. He also throws a 788-80 mph curve with good command and an acceptable changeup. Possessing a smooth delivery he is athletic and a good fielder. His 2011 line, 7- 2  1.33 ERA 64 IP, 23 BB, 132 SO.

Blake Swihart C  Cleveland HS- NM   S/R  6- 1   190 lbs

May have a steep price tag this draft as he is committed to Texas. Swihart raised his profile with his play for Team USA last season. He only started catching last year and played 3B previously. He is an above average hitter with well developed approach. As a catcher he has good footwork, receives well, has a strong arm and really good projection.

Brian Goodwin  OF   Miami-Dade JC   L/R   6- 1  190 lbs

Goodwin began his college career at UNC but was suspended for violating policy and transferred to a JC. He has plus tools across the board and is known as a patient hitter. He draws walks and is projected to develop power as he matures.  A plus runner, he could project to any outfield spot with more development.

Not having the option to watch these players in person, we rely on the scouting reports (as well as the mock drafts) available on the internet to rate these guys. Jim Callis of Baseball America also tweets much valuable information to help with evaluation of these players and their suitability within the Padres system. The mock drafts by BA as well as draftsite.com and mymlbdraft.com added some weight to my own evaluations of the prospects based on their college scouting reports. This is my list, based on organizational need. It may not reflect the best players available at the time that the Padres choose.

The Padres brass is in their second season as decision makers for the Padres and this draft may better reflect their philosophy, having had a full season to develop their scouting department and having hired many more scouts and cross checkers within the past year. This draft should tell us a lot about the leadership of this team going forward. Many of them were in high positions within other winning organizations (Boston) before coming here and let’s hope some of that ability will be present in this draft.

I am eagerly awaiting their moves.