With Spring Training kicking off, and games just around the corner, naturally I catch myself looking ahead to June and baseball’s Amateur Draft (it’s the amateur GM in me). The Padre system was recently rated #9 in all of baseball by Baseball America in their 2011 Prospect Handbook. With very few prospects expected to graduate into the big leagues (Cory Luebke and a few relievers should be the only guys who lose rookie eligibility) combined with several top selections (5 in the first 60) the Padres should system should take a big step forward as an organization.

Padres 2011 Top-100 Draft Picks:

First Round:

#10 (from their failure to sign Karston Whitson)

#25

First-Supplemental

#48 (for Jon Garland)

#54 (for Yorvit Torrealba)

#58 (for Kevin Correia)

Second Round

#85

Padres 2011 Draft Watch List (for 1^st selection):

Archie Bradley, Broken Arrow HS (OK)

Jedd Bradley, RHP, GaTech

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, So. Carolina

Matt Barnes, LHP, UConn

Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS (OK)

Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA

Jason Eposito, 3B, Vanderbilt

Derek Fisher, OF, Cedar Crest HS (PA)

Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt

Dillon Howard, RHP, Searcy HS (AR)

Taylor Jungmann, RHP, U. Texas

Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde HS (FL)

Daniel Norris, LHP, Science Hill HS (TN)

Matt Purke, RHP, TCU

Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice

George Springer, OF, UConn

Bubba Starling, CF/RHP, Gardener-Edgerton HS (KS)

Blake Swihart, C, Cleveland HS (NM)

Commentary:

There are three prospects we should probably eliminate from contention because it is highly unlikely they will be available when the Padres pick first at #10: Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, and Bubba Starlin. Rendon would have (in some people’s opinion) challenged Harper for the top pick in last year’s draft. There are however two knocks against him, 1. He is shorter than 6 ft., and 2. He has already had surgeries on each ankle – neither injury is considered career-threatening but baseball people may be whispering that he isn’t durable and the two could conspire against him come June. Cole was said to have the best pitching stuff when he came out of high school (he didn’t want to sign then) and according to Baseball America, he has the best stuff again this year. Cole is an easy top 5 pick this year. The third, Bubba Starlin, was described by Keith Law as having, “…upside to spare, [he is] a five-tool center fielder who's low-90s off the bump with plenty of athleticism for a pitching coach to work with.”

So now that we’ve dismissed the three obvious top-5 candidates, what can we say about the rest of the field? We could start by summarizing: there is a lot of pitching in this draft and one of the top collegians (Barnes, Jungmann, Purke, etc.) could move quickly… Or we could talk about the idea that Francisco Lindor, the top shortstop in the draft, would be a nice player to add to a system that lacks a surefire shortstop prospect… Or under the heading, “There’s no such thing as too much pitching,” the Padres could add one of the top high school arms…

I started this article by looking at the Padres point of view, so what should the Padres do; who should they draft with the 10^th pick? The easiest and most honest answer is: I don’t know – it’s too early. But my leading candidates (assuming the obvious guys are taken) would be Lindor and Barnes. Of course I’m probably missing someone who will emerge as a top-10 talent and someone I have my list will have a bad season and miss the first round… It’s gonna be fun!