In light of the Adrian Gonzalez trade and the obvious corresponding question,” Where will the 2011 Padres get their offense?,” this exercise looks at each position and profiles the primary player at that position for 2010 and the expected primary player(s) for 2011. My attempt is to answer the obvious question.

(Each position’s stats show how the primary player for the Padres performed in 2010 and the career statistics for the player who is likely to get the full-time position in 2011.)

C:

Torrealba (2010): .271/.343/.378

Hundley (Career): .248/.302/.398

Hundley was becoming a very good defensive catcher though he regressed in 2010. Was that due to injuries? Will he regain and even improve on his defensive abilities in 2011? His bat is only average but as a 27 year-old, he is just coming into his prime. It is unlikely the Padres will get Torrealba (or Hundley) level production out of both their catchers, but it is reasonable to expect a slight offensive improvement (relative to himself) out of Hundley in 2011. Defense should be on par with where it was in 2010.

1B:

Gonzalez (2010): .298/.393/511

Blanks (Career): .212/.325/.436

Cantu (Career): .274/.320/.446

Glaus (Career): .254/.358/.489

Hawpe (Career): .279/.379/.490

D. Lee (Career): .282/.367/.498

First, let us be realistic: the Padres are not going to get Gold Glove, MVP caliber production out of first base in 2011 like they have the past two. What are they going to get? What can they get? I started this by showing what the Padres got in 2010 at that position (by the primary player at that position) and by showing the career stats of the players likely to hold down that position for 2011. At 1B however, we do not yet know who will man it. Of the players listed above, only Blanks really has any upside – and he has a lot of it. His MLB numbers are not impressive but they only represent a snapshot. He only has 250 MLB at-bats. In the minors he hit .303/.393/.501 in 1702 at-bats. Approximately three years ago I said Blanks could make Gonzalez “expendable” (that was before Gonzalez became an MVP caliber hitter). I did not say that because I thought Blanks would be a better hitter, but because of the realities of baseball’s and particularly, San Diego’s economics. The Padres could trade Gonzalez and get above average production from a younger, cheaper source – Kyle Blanks. However, Blanks’ elbow injury, and the uncertainty surrounding his recovery, clouds the Padres’ ability to discern if he is ready and able to take that job. Thus four other players are listed. Unfortunately all four are on the downsides of their careers. Below are listed the numbers each posted in 2010. Lee, for one, could post better numbers in 2011 than he did in 2010. But signing any of these hitters, particularly Lee, could impede Blanks. While the other hitters could put up decent numbers, only Blanks has a realistic shot of posting a .900+ OPS in the foreseeable future.

2010:

Cantu .256/.304/.392

Glaus  .240/.344/.400

Hawpe: .245/338/.419

Lee .260/.347/.428

2B:

Eckstein (2010): .267/.321/.326

Hudson (Career): .280/.346/.424

It is likely that Hudson will hit closer to his numbers from last year (.268/.338/.372) than his Arizona-inflated career numbers. But Hudson will improve our defense at the keystone. Eckstein was solid and reliable, but Hudson is that with better range. Hudson is generally regarded as one of the best defenders at 2B in all of baseball. All in all, this is an offensive and defensive upgrade.

3B:

Headley (2010): .264/.327/.375

Headley (Career): .264/.335/.390

In 2006 while playing in High-A Lake Elsinore, Chase Headley hit .291/.389/.434. After that season he told baseball media that the Padres wanted him to bulk up. He said that he put on 10-15 lbs. of muscle that offseason. The next year, in Double-A San Antonio (while playing in a park some say is more of an extreme pitchers’ park than Petco), he hit .330/.437/.580. He followed that up with similarly impressive .305/.383/.556 in AAA. Then, after the 2008 season, when the Padres told Chase he would be playing in the outfield, he said he wanted to be more agile and slimmed down… Instead of improving on his rookie slugging rate of .420, his slugging rate has declined each year. This offseason, I heard another report where Chase said he was going to bulk back up… One can only hope he can regain the hitting prowess he had in 2007-8 when he was one of the most feared hitters in all of minor league baseball.

SS:

Hairston (2010): .254/.299/.354

Bartlett (Career): .281/.345/.385

Much like Hudson’s career numbers are inflated by playing in Arizona, Bartlett has one great season (2009) where he hit .320/.389/.490. Other than that his numbers fall in line with last year’s numbers (.254/.324/.350). It is unlikely that the former Padre farmhand will improve much on 2010’s numbers. But he will provide steady defense while Cabrera tries to get his bat back on track with where it was in the 2009 season. If Cabrera is able to regain that form, he could wrest SS from Bartlett in mid-2011 or by 2012 at the latest.

LF:

Scott Hairston (2010): .210/.295/.346

Ryan Ludwick (Career): .266/.337/.476

Aaron Cunningham (Career): .249/.301/.377

I am looking at two players in this analysis:

Ryan Ludwick currently is the heir-apparent for the LF job. However, with the arbitration-inflated salary Ludwick will receive the Padres will look to move his salary. If Ludwick is a member of the 2011 Padres, he will play above-average defense and should exceed his rate-stats from his 2010 Padres campaign (.211/.301/.330) to an at-least MLB-average level and closer to what his career stats are.

On the other hand, Aaron Cunningham deserves a shot. He actually hit better than Hairston, Ludwick, and virtually every other Padres outfielder last year - .288/.331/.417 but since the Padres had the ability to demote Cunningham without losing him, that’s what they did. Cunningham has the ability to play CF in a pinch – as did Hairston, so the Padres are not gaining or losing much defensively. But when you consider that Aaron hit better last year and has an aggregate minor league line of .302/.376/.483 in 2110 at-bats, the likelihood that he improves on last year is real (though the improvement is likely to come in on-base and slugging, not batting average).

CF:

Gwynn (2010): .204/.304/.297

Maybin (Career): .246/.313/.380

Gwynn played very good defense for the Padres in 2010. However, he was one of the worst hitters in the big leagues. Cameron Maybin has accumulated roughly a full season’s worth of at-bats (548) over parts of four seasons with Detroit and Florida. However, in over 1500 at-bats in the minors, Maybin hit a combined .306/.393/.478. If Maybin fails us and doesn’t turn into even an average hitter, he will still hit better than Gwynn did last year. And Maybin will do so while maintaining Gwynn’s level of defense. This is huge upgrade for the Padres in 2011.

RF:

Ludwick (2010): .211/.301/.330 (with Padres)

Venable (Career):  .252/.325/.418

Venable will provide better defense in RF than Ludwick, but Ludwick is probably more of a sure thing with the bat. That isn’t to say Ludwick would outperform Venable, but Venable is just as likely to outperform Ludwick as he is to bomb and be an offensive hole in the lineup. It will be curious to see much of a leash the Padres front office give Venable if he struggles. Venable had his best season in 2009 when he hit .256/.323/.440 (last year he hit .245/.324/.408). Will he improve on 2009? Will he suffer through another injury-plagued season? Right field is one of the positions to watch closely in 2011.

***

In conclusion, the Padres are likely to see a major performance regression at 1B, and a slight decline from catcher. They will likely see a major improvement out of the aggregate contributions from their outfielders and small gains from their middle infielders. The wild card is Chase Headley. It would be wise to expect the Padres to score less than 700 runs again as they did in 2010 (665).