So here we are at the end of December 2010 and the front office of the San Diego Padres has been much more active this off-season than at this same time last year. We can all remember the anxiety with which we approached last season at this time. Jed Hoyer was our new GM and there were a lot of holes to fill on the roster. Trepidation reigned throughout the land as loyal Padres fans wondered if Doogie (our fond nickname at the time) could come through and give us a team worth rooting for in 2010.

Jedi (as he is currently referred to) came through with flying colors and had a successful inaugural season, supplying San Diego fans with a better than expected product on the field. Now with Jed in his second season as Padres GM, we all are in a similar state of uneasiness. Most of the core players of the 90 win, 2010 Padres are gone and the experts are once again picking the Padres to perform below the rest of the division for 2011.

While there is still a lot of off- season to go, much of the Padres 40 man roster is set. Barring any unforeseen surprises, we already have a pretty good idea of the starting 8 for the beginning of he season. It is generally opined that Jed may still add a pitcher or two to increase spring training competition plus a utility infielder to add depth but the budget does not allow for any high priced talent to fill those roles. While Hoyer recently stated that there was still some money to spend, the general perception is the budget will not go above 45 million and the as yet unannounced Brad Hawpe signing, along with arbitration salaries, should take them above 40 million.

Many of us are still uneasy about the catcher position. Nick Hundley has many admirable talents but is unproven as an everyday catcher. And the way he was used last year showed Buddy Black’s unwillingness to test him in that role. Also, his management of the pitching staff, namely Mat Latos, was a topic of discussion here and elsewhere throughout last season. Rob Johnson has major league experience but has a poor hitting record (.200/.282/.302 in parts of 4 season with Seattle) and is primarily viewed as a struggling player both offensively and defensively (9 passed balls last season with the Mariners). The other catcher on the 40 man is Luis Martinez, who is not major league ready. This leads us to hope that Jed is not done shopping for catchers and there is very little left on the FA market.

The signing of Hudson to a multi year deal made it less likely for the Padres to retain Jerry Hairston Jr. as his price would be too high to fit into the budget. A lower cost utility infielder to complement Oscar Salazar is probably in the Padres future.

All that said, what will the Padres 2011 starting lineup look like?

The exact order of the lineup will be worked out during spring training but the inhabitants are currently pretty clear. Unless there are some surprise trades coming in the month of January, your 2011 Padres should look like this:

SS Jason Bartlett  (wearing #8 or 18)

’09  Rays 500 AB 29 2B, 7 3B, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 54 BB, 59 SO .320/.389/.490 with 30 SB, 7 CS

’10 Rays 468 AB 27 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 47 RBI, 45 BB, 83 SO  .254/.324/.350 with 11 SB, 6 CS

2B Orlando Hudson (wearing #1,3 or 13) Commonly referred to as O-Dog (or Dawg).

’09 Dodgers 551 AB, 35 2B, 6 3B, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 62 BB, 99 SO, 8 SB .283/.357/.417

’10 Twins 497 AB 24 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 37 RBI, 50 BB, 87 SO, 10 SB .268/.338/.372

1B Brad Hawpe (#11)

’09 Rockies  501 AB  42 2B,3 3B, 23 HR, 86 RBI 79 BB, 145 SO  .285/.384/.519

’10 Rockies/Rays 298 AB 21 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 42 BB, 85 SO .179/.304/.333

LF Ryan Ludwick (#47)

STL ’09 486 AB 20 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 97 RBI, 41 BB, 106 SO .265/.329/.447

’10 STL/Pads 490 AB 27 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 69 RBI, 48 BB, 121 SO  .251/.325/.418

(Padres line: .211/.301/.330)

RF Will Venable (#25)

’09 Pads 293 AB 14 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 25 BB, 89 SO .256/.323/.440 with 6 SB and 1 CS.

’10 Pads 392 AB 11 2B, 7 3B, 13 HR, 51 RBI, 45 BB, 128 SO, 29 SB and 7 CS .245/.324/.408

3B Chase Headley (#7)

’09 Pads  543 AB 31 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 64 RBI, 62 BB, 133 SO, 10 SB, 2 CS .262/.342/.392

’10 Pads  610 AB  29 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 58 RBI,  56BB, 139 SO, 17 SB, 5 CS .264/.327/.375

C Nick Hundley (#4)

’09 Pads 256 AB 15 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR 30 RBI, 28 BB, 76 SO, 5 SB, 1 CS .238/.313/.406

’10 Pads 273 AB 18 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 43 RBI, 25 BB, 66 SO, 0 SB .249/.308/.418

CF Cameron Maybin (# 24,4)

’09 FL  54 G, 176 AB, 12 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 17 BB, 51 SO, 1 SB, 3 CS .250/.318/.409

’10 FL  82 G 291 AB 7 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 28 RBI, 24 BB, 92 SO, 9 SB, 2 CS .23/.302/.361

You may notice a trend here. Three of the four acquired players during this off-season had significant decline in their numbers for last year. Maybin has yet to prove himself anything but a strike out machine at the plate with poor plate discipline. Bartlett had a severe decline from his All Star ’09 season and Brad Hawpe was released by the Rockies because of his poor performance, presumably injury related, on the field in ’09. All of these players were acquired more easily due to these stats. Hudson also had a decline in performance last season over previous years. His OBP is still higher than anyone else on the team but his performance history has consistently been above last year’s numbers.

Due to the loss of Adrian Gonzalez there is no consistent home run threat in this line up. For the Padres to be successful and win games they must be disciplined at the plate, get on base at a higher rate, employ smart base running and hit doubles and triples to drive in runs. The occasional home run by Ludwick, Hawpe, Venable or Headley will not replace the output by Gonzalez. Unless someone has a surprising year, this will be the definition of a small ball team.

There has been some discussion regarding who will lead off for this lineup and Venable has been suggested as he had some experience last year in the role. Bartlett, in previous seasons, has shown the ability to perform well in the role. It seems that is a question that will be best answered in the spring.

The return of Kyle Blanks early in the season will occur if he performs well in AAA, where he will start the season. Tommy John surgery takes less time to recover from for position players than pitchers but if he is required to serve time in the outfield during the season it would be wise to build up his arm strength in AAA before bringing him up. This will be relevant only if he gets his hitting stroke back.

Another historical weakness of the Padres offense has been their performance against LHP. They must do better to be successful with a power-lacking offense. Will Venable and Chase Headley struggled last season against LHP and both must improve or the Padres must have viable options to replace them in key situations. The depth on the bench will be an important factor in whether this offense is successful.

All said, this could be an exciting team to watch if some of these players have bounce back years and we see the return of the style of play from the first half of last season. Brad Hawpe and Ryan Ludwick figure to clog the base paths when on base but the rest of the lineup has a history of running well. The 2010 Padres led the league in stolen bases for a large portion of the season and will need to repeat that effort to be successful.