The Padres finished 2^nd in all of baseball with a 2.91 team ERA in 2010 (second only to the 2.90 ERA posted by the World Series champion Giants). While the Padres will be hard-pressed to post a second consecutive sub-3.00 accumulative team ERA they should again be among the leaders (usually in low-mid 3’s).

The rotation boasts one legitimate ace, Mat Latos, and several guys who profile as #3 starters (or less) by the national media. The national media thinks the Padres pitching excellence is purely a Petco-fueled anomaly (I wonder: will Petco pitchers get the same discretization once afforded to Coors-hitters?). What the national media fails to recognize however, is that last year’s team was aided by a sublime outfield defense and turned 70.4% of balls in play into outs (the Padres only ranked 8^th in this measure but the top 8 were separated by less than 1% - Oakland led by converting 71.3% into outs).

The 2011 team has improved defense across the board (except at 1B which is an underrated defensive position, in my opinion) and this year’s group of solid (if unspectacular) starting pitchers will be lauded as the Padres mystify the experts and exceed expectations – again.

1^st Starter

Jon Garland (2010 statistics): 33 Starts, 200.0 IP, 3.47 ERA, 176 H, 20 HR, 87/136 BB/SO ratio

Mat Latos (career statistics): 41 Starts, 235 IP, 3.29 ERA, 193 H, 23 HR, 73/228 BB/SO ratio

Mat Latos is, without question, the best pitcher in the Padres organization. However, I hope they are not planning on using him as the number 1 starter in 2011. Latos only has one full big league season in the books. Prior to logging 184 innings in 2010, his previous career-high in innings (combining minor league and major league innings) was 122 in 2009. It was clear at the end of the 2010 season that Latos was gassed. Young pitchers are more injury-prone when their innings totals are significantly increased from year-to-year. While Latos has the talent to be the staff ace, I fear that he may put pressure on himself (particularly if the team is struggling) and may over-exert himself and injure that prized right arm.

Assuming a healthy season for Latos, he should be able to replicate his 2010 campaign. Latos is that talented.

2^nd Starter

Clayton Richard (2010): 33 Starts, 201.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 206 H, 16 HR, 16 HR, 78/153 BB/SO ratio

Clayton Richard (career): 67 Starts, 402.1 IP, 4.27 ERA, 421 H, 38 HR, 162/296 BB/SO ratio

Clayton Richard might be the most intriguing guy to look at in this group. Generally, K/9 rates decrease through the minors on up to the majors. Clayton posted excellent K/9 rates his professional debut (8.56 K/9 in 37 IP in the short-season Pioneer League and 6.97 K/9 in 41 IP in the Low-A South Atlantic League). Since then however, he posted sub-6 K/9’s (except for a 6.75 in 44 IP in AAA). Overall he has a 5.84 K/9 in the minors. Following a typical pitcher’s progression, he should decline from that mark once he reached the bigs. Richard, on the other hand, has improved his K/9 each year in the majors (5.48 in ’08, 6.70 in ’09, and 6.83 in ’10).

Richard is still a little too hittable for my liking - especially as a second starter (.272 BAA). But he is serviceable and will provide at least league-average production. If you’re a betting man (or woman) I would not bet on Clayton to improve on his 3.75 ERA from 2010, but I would expect him to post numbers that further improve on his career statistics.

3^rd Starter

Matt Latos (2010): 31 Starts, 184.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 150 H, 16 HR, 50/189 BB/SO ratio

Tim Stauffer (career): 38 Starts, 250.1 IP, 4.06 ERA, 246 H, 26 HR, 94/171 BB/SO ratio

It is unlikely the Padres will get 35 starts and a sub-3.00 ERA out of Stauffer this year. However, his success in 2010 is indicative of the talent Stauffer has and why he was drafted 4^th overall in 2003. Unfortunately an undetected college injury derailed his career and it wasn’t until he missed all of 2008 recovering from shoulder surgery that he began pitching like someone worthy of his draft status. While Stauffer is unlikely to replicate his 1.85 ERA from 2010, he should post roughly a 3.50 ERA in 2011.

4^th Starter

Kevin Corriea (2010): 26 Starts, 145.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 152 H, 20 HR, 64/115 BB/SO ratio

Aaron Harang (career): 240 Starts, 1451 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1546 H, 197 HR, 407/1205 BB/SO ratio

Harang was one of the better pitchers in the National League from 2005 to 2007 despite pitching in Cincinnati. Injuries (and I believe, a poor bullpen) derailed Harang in the three years since. Moving to Petco and starting in front of the Padres bullpen will do wonders for a pitcher.

Harang is good bet to bounce back (he posted 5.32 ERA in 2010) and while I do not think he will pitch better than Garland did in 2010, I think Harang will pitch superiorly in 2011.

5^th Starter

Wade LeBlanc (2010): 25 Starts, 146.0 IP, 4.25 ERA, 157 H, 24 HR, 51/110 BB/SO ratio

Dustin Moseley (career): 32 Starts, 233.0 IP, 5.28 ERA, 275 H, 32 HR, 79/131 BB/SO ratio

While I have immediate knowledge of the negotiations between the Padres and Dustin Moseley, I assume one reason he came to San Diego (not just the chance to pitch in the Grand Canyon of parks) was because the Padres offered at least a chance to win a starting pitching job.

Moseley will have lots of competition for the 5^th starter position but I think with his signing by the Padres he will be given the most chances to win that slot. I also think though, that he will have the shortest leash and is the most likely to be moved back into the bullpen if he falters as a starter.

6^th Starter

Tim Stauffer (2010): 7 Starts, 82.2 IP, 1.85 ERA, 65 H, 3 HR, 24/61 BB/SO ratio

Cory Luebke (career): 3 Starts, 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 17 H, 3 HR, 6/18 BB/SO ratio

I need to begin this section with an explanation. Obviously the Padres will not break camp with a 6-man starting rotation. However, it is beyond unlikely that the same five starting pitchers who begin the season in the rotation will get every start; last year, eight Padres pitchers made starts for the team. And don’t forget, of those eight, only Luebke’s 3 starts were less than the 4 provided by Chris Young (who was a member of the 2010 opening day starting rotation). Thus, I bring you…

Cory Luebke will be first in line to pick up starts if Moseley or one of the others falters. Since he only has 17.2 innings of big league experience, it’s telling to look at his minor league numbers:

32-17 in 84 games (74 starts) with 3.49 ERA in 430 IP, 400 H, 33 HR, 101/361 BB/SO ratio

He never posted Latos’ sublime numbers, but he was solid. He has a career minor league 1.16 WHIP. He doesn’t really profile as much more than 3^rd or 4^th starter, but he should be able to carve out a nice big league career.