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| I'm Not of Fan of the Mat Latos Trade... Not Yet Anyway |
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| 2011 Season - 2011 Season | |||
| Written by Steve Adler | |||
| Sunday, 18 December 2011 12:21 | |||
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Moving forward, I’m not a fan of the trade. I’m also surprised that so many people that follow minor league baseball have lacked the foresight to dig deeper into the trade. On a shallow level, I can see how some people would say the Padres got a great haul for Latos. Although the three prospects that Padres receive rank in Baseball America’s top ten in the Reds organization, that doesn’t translate to the Padres system. Alonso is a top five guy, but Grandal is a fringe top 10 and Boxberger is a fringe top 20. I have noticed that some people are claiming that Latos had a down year, but after fighting through a shoulder issue the first half of the season, Latos was lights out the second half of the season. You can compare Latos’ first two seasons with the likes of Hanson, Price, and Kershaw. Latos is a true ace and even though Stauffer and Luebke are nice pitchers, they are not on the level of Latos. Casey Kelly, Joseph Wieland, and Robbie Erlin are all top 10 prospects, but only Keyvius Sampson has electric stuff and he is all the way down in low A. A guy like Karsten Whitson (a guy that would likely be the #1 prospect in the system) would sure make this easier to swallow. My point is that kids like Latos don’t grow on trees. When you control a player like that for the next four seasons, you better get some MLB ready studs at positions of need if you are going to move him. This leads me to… Why I don’t like the trade of Mat Latos. All trades are different, so comparing trading one year of Adrian Gonzalez for Rizzo, Kelly and Fuentes or Mike Adams for Erlin and Wieland with the Latos trade is not fair. With that said, I don’t think trading a player even Latos is a bad thing, if you can get a large haul in return, but I think the pieces need to fit. The two key pieces in this deal are clearly Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal. Edinson Volquez doesn’t have much value. Since his 2008 season he has been a hot mess. Sure pitching in Petco National Park will help him, but best case scenario, he’s an innings eater and fills the Harang/Garland role. Brad Boxberger has nice numbers, but according to BA his fastball is 91-93 and his slider is simply average. I am encouraged by the fun the twitter community with have with Brad’s name, but by the numbers, he looks like a younger Brach and a step up from Nick Vincent. I think the future closer term is used loosely and with Brach, Hamren, Vincent, Mikolas, Burns, and Vincent, Boxberger is going to need to do more to stand out. Yonder Alonso is a nice player. He doesn’t profile to be a future all star, and he doesn’t profile to be better than Anthony Rizzo. He does profile to hit better in Petco than Rizzo does, which is saying something. Alonso is nearly two years older than Rizzo, doesn’t have the power Rizzo does, and has a long way to go with his glove. For those of you that love Jesus Guzman, Alonso reminds me of a younger Guzman with more upside. Some Padres fans have soured on Rizzo prematurely, it should be noted that Rizzo suffered two hand injuries before getting called up to the Padres. As if breaking into the bigs wasn’t hard enough already try doing it with a busted hand. Yasmani Grandal ironically played at Miami with Padres prospect Jason Hagerty. I feel the need to point out Hags was the 2010 Padres minor league hitter of the year. He hit well in Elsinore, but struggled in the second half at San Antonio. Is Grandal an upgrade over Hagerty? Yes. Is it a huge upgrade? No. The reality is that they could both be catching for the Padres in 2013, while keeping things warm for (best case scenario) Austin Hedges. My point is… I think as a general manager you must always look to improve the team, even if it means trading a very popular player. Does this trade do that? In my opinion… No. When you trade one of the best young pitchers in game I expect more than:
Did the Padres pick up some good prospects? Yes. Are these guys are positions of need? Not really. That is why, the day after, I’m not a fan of this trade, not yet anyway. I do expect more moves from Byrnes, which hopefully will include a top notch SS prospect and some upgrades (not named Ryan Ludwick Carlos Quentin) to the offense at the major league level. Until then, I want to wish Mat and Dallas Latos the best in Cincinnati. During their short time in San Diego they have both made an effort to become part of the San Diego community. Making San Diego their home during the offseason and being very involved in Charity events. This year alone they were at the front of the clothing drive for the Tornado victims in Oklahoma, they appeared at an event in the pouring rain for SNAP, and they donated the majority of the items for our Friarhood holiday event. Most of these things go under the radar; because they aren’t scheduled appearances through the Padres, but make no mistake these are good people and they will be missed in San Diego. Log in to leave your comments below
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I’m not a huge fan of writing a story about a player move without a day to think about it. With that said, my day after reaction is very similar to my initial reaction. After posting my thoughts on why the Padres are sending mixed messages to fans and that
Comments
So our great system lessens their prospect status? That’s ridiculous. Alonso and Grandal are easily top 100 prospects in baseball and Boxberger is a very good prospect. Don’t act like the Reds don’t have a good farm system. We just got the #3, #4, and #10 best prospects of a good farm system along with a major league pitcher with electric stuff. This is a bigger haul than we got for Adrian Gonzalez as it should it be. Also, all of these prospects are very close to major league ready.
“Latos is a true ace”
No he’s not. Latos is still a potential ace. He’s has had injury problems, inconsistencies , has not topped 200 innings in any season, and has maturity issues. He’s looked like an ace at times, but he’s not the complete package just yet.
“Edinson Volquez doesn’t have much value… but best case scenario, he’s an innings eater and fills the Harang/Garland role.”
That’s ridiculous. Volquez has electric top of the rotation stuff. I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but he was still recovering from Tommy John surgery last season, an operation that takes a lot of time to heal. Volquez could be every bit as good as Latos over the next 2 years especially under Black/Balsley.
“but according to BA his fastball is 91-93 and his slider is simply average.”
According to BA here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2011/2612727.html
“He throws a 92-95 mph fastball with natural cutting action”
He projects as a back end of the bullpen pitcher. I’m not sure why you’re trying so hard to sell him short. He immediately moves to the top of our relief depth chart ahead of all the pitchers you mentioned. This is definitely needed depth after the loss of Bell, Adams, and others over the last couple years.
“He doesn’t profile to be a future all star, and he doesn’t profile to be better than Anthony Rizzo.”
“Compared with Rizzo, Alonso is a better pure hitter, more polished player and more consistent defender with less power and athletic ability.” Baseball America
Steve, it seems like you’re trying really hard to nitpick this into a bad trade and reaching quite a bit. I understand that you have a personal relationship with Latos and that gives you somewhat of a biased opinion on the trade, but you have to look at it more objectively. The fact is the Padres got a ridiculous amount of talent for a player they might not have been in love with. You’re selling every player/prospect we received short in your analysis and future trades from this surplus for those positions of need could make this trade make even more sense.
The industry consensus is that the Reds paid too much for Latos. Every professional baseball writer, at the very least, thinks this is a good deal for both teams. Only time will tell…
Bringing in and keeping position players to Petco is always going to be difficult. Having positional depth for this team is extremely important. We have as much pitching depth as any team in baseball throughout the system and bringing in/keeping pitchers here will never be a problem.
This was a great trade for the Padres. Hopefully we can say that in hindsight a few years from now.
You wrote way too much for me to respond to it, but right off the bat, you missed the point on what I was saying about prospect status.
My relationship has nothing to do with this post and using this as a point to your argument is insulting. I said, I was not opposed to trading Latos or any player, I just am not a fan of what they got in return. If I didn't make that point above I apologize.
If you want to bring up my relationship with Latos or any other player. I could also argue that because of my relationship, It may be better for him to be traded, because it may be in the best interest of the player.
I addressed, the "so called" experts comments.
It's great to see his increase in velocity, but I still don't feel as though he jumps to the top of the staff as you do.
I respect your opinion, but I don't agree with it.
I guess I did miss whatever point you were trying to make about their prospect status because you weren't making any sense. Care to elaborate rather than just saying I missed the point?
Steve, I was not trying to insult you. I'm simply pointing out the obvious. Again, you're selling every single player we acquired in this trade short. Your analysis of these players was way off base and there's a reason. TEAM LATOS
I respect the opinion that we didn't get players at our biggest positions of need and I agree with that. Sorry, but I don't respect your opinion of the package we received because it's way off base and it appears to be skewed by bias.
You think I'm selling them short, that's your opinion. I would rather see a high ceiling power arm, a top SS, and a power hitting corner OF.
Based on only the people that are part of this trade, my feeling is that these pieces don't really fit into the puzzle. Which is why I said, I'm not a fan of the trade...yet.
I've had plenty of other guys I have great relationships released and/or traded. It's part of the business so assuming I can't be objective is just silly. At the end of the day, this is great for Mat. Cincy is a great baseball city and for me to be anything but excited for him personally would just be selfish on my part.
"You think I'm selling them short, that's your opinion."
That's not just my opinion. That seems to be the opinion of everyone worth listening to.
"I would rather see a high ceiling power arm, a top SS, and a power hitting corner OF."
I would rather that package as well. So, who was offering that package at the same value? People love to say I want this and I want that while ignoring reality.
I didn't say you can't be objective. I said you're not being objective now and it's obvious. You either lack knowledge of the players acquired or your opinion is skewed by bias.
It is a bummer that Petco forces us to adapt to getting players that fit our stadium and not the best players in general. ;/
I don't see a depth of talented players as a problem. Rizzo could spend another full year in AAA and more trades will likely follow.
Not exactly the analysis I was expecting from an editor at BA. Sounds like a blogger looking at BR.
I'm curious what the teams were offering, but more or less for us to get into pointless debates.
Brian pointed out the increase in velocity. I suppose my 2011 BA scouting report is outdated already.
It's never easy to see a fan favorite go and I wanted to give my reaction based on the trade itself, before another trade dropped.
I do think Byrnes will move some pieces and clean things up, but that's why I said, I'm not a fan of the trade... yet.
His increase in velocity came with his move to the pen. That's pretty common.
I also know that BA uses reports from various sources and their is a good chance that one or both of these writers never tracked Box personally.
As you said, these guys don't follow every player around, so the fact that Cooper wrote he sits at 91-93 and Manuel writes something different shouldn't surprise you.
Either way, it still doesn't change my stance, he doesn't seem to be better than any of the other guys I mentioned and I left Quack out of the convo.
I realize pitchers velocity changes from game to game and that's my point. You used a scouting report made after he was a starter for much of the season. Again, Why are you using an old scouting report in the first place unless you are trying to put a negative spin on the trade?
You are entitled to your own opinion about Box and the rest of our relief prospects. You also have the right to be wrong. Box immediately became our best relief prospect.
I thought Hoyer spent a year selling all of us that Rizzo would profile in Petco? lol
Accoording to Mike Kelly's story Alonso is the better fielder over Rizzo.
.993 to .989
Is there something you've seen in Alonso watching him in the minors?
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