Scrap article and start over…

In my first piece I argued that Quentin should play RF for the Padres thereby allowing Kyle Blanks to play LF thereby relegating Will Venable to either the bench or trade-bait status. But since the decision has been made to play Quentin in LF different analysis is required.

First, let’s look at Carlos Quentin. His career MLB slash-line is: .252/.346/.490. Furthermore his minor league slash line was: .314/.429/.527. This tells us that he has a considerable ceiling. I always look at what MLB players did in the minors (especially if a player has drastically divergent seasons, as is the case with Carlos).

In Carlos’ first MLB season, with Arizona, he hit .253/.342/.530 in 166 AB. In his second season, also with Arizona, he hit .214/.298/.349 in 229 AB… Then Carlos had one really good season with Chicago hitting .287/.394/.571 in 480 AB. Since then his OPS has varied from .779 to .839 while his batting average varied from .236 to .254 (his BA did improve each of the last two seasons).

What should we expect in Petco? That’s a great question and if anyone tells you they’re certain of the answer, don’t listen to them. Is he a creation of the White Sox’ smallish park? Well, he hit more HR on the road last year than at home (but over his career with the Pale Hose he has hit more at home). Is he someone that can rebound towards his .960 OPS season? Probably not… But he is good bet to improve on his career .836 OPS.

As for his defense, Carlos will never win a Gold Glove. He has a RF-capable arm but not the range you want to cover Petco’s spacious real estate. He should, however, be more than adequate for LF.

One of criticisms in the Quentin trade is that we’re only getting a rental. That’s not really a fair, accurate, or even a legitimate complaint.

The worst-case scenario is Carlos impersonates Ryan Ludwick (in which we would want to get rid of him). More likely though he’ll hit ok (for him – say .250/.340/.460) while solidifying the middle of the Padres’ batting order. Best case scenario is probably something like: .280/.375/. 500. The thing most people will complain about is that if Carlos hits like my best option, we won’t be able to afford him. And the Padres only control Carlos through the 2012 season… But I actually like that Carlos isn’t locked up long-term.

I’ve been telling anyone who will listen that the Padres’ minor league system is chalk-full of legitimate big league prospects. At some point the Padres need to see if they guys they have can actually produce at the highest level. Quentin (with his contract status) does not block the Padres best OF prospects.

Carlos is 29. He is not a good candidate for a 5-6 year contract. You do not want guys on long-term contracts that end when a player in his mid-30’s. But as a two-three year solution for LF… He’ll do great.

Lastly, I won’t lie: I am a big Kyle Blanks fan. I think he could lock-down 1B or LF for a few years. If the Padres send Blanks to AAA Tucson this year, he’ll have a monster season. But under my own criteria I have to admit that Quentin is a better option than Blanks in LF (especially if we’re just looking at a one-to-three year span)… I still don’t think Venable is the answer in RF but then, that’s whole ‘nother article.