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| Padres 2012 Organizational Depth: First Base |
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| 2012 - 2012 | |||
| Written by Cheri Bell | |||
| Wednesday, 25 January 2012 14:00 | |||
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This alone should get Padres fans excited about this season and future seasons. It is not Padres scouts or front office personnel spinning out these lists but respected baseball experts and writers who are very high on the crop of players who are one to two seasons away with some expected to crack the 25 man sometime this season. With that said, I will attempt to highlight the top prospects at each position for the Padres with some notes and projections based on information gleaned from the watching of video, reading of scouting reports and opinions obtained from some of these experts. I will list the sources of this information so that you can all go read the source itself anytime you doubt the veracity of the opinions. Everybody loves offense and for the first time in a long time the Padres have some legitimate bats in the minor league system so we will start with the offense. It has been a sore point with Padres fans since the team moved into Petco Park (not so affectionately known as Petco National Park by some writers and players) that the low scoring games that have become commonplace at Petco have frustrated and even alienated some of the fan base. The departure of Adrian Gonzalez also marked the end of the any reliable output from the Padres lineup. So let’s start with first base and see what the future holds. Yonder Alonso: 2008 1st round (7th overall) pick of the Cincinnati Reds. Born: 4/8/87 in Havana, Cuba. Bats/throws: L/R 6-2, 240 lbs. Alonso moved with his family to Florida at the age of ten and was drafted from the University of Miami. Blocked by All-Star Joey Votto, there was an attempt to move Alonso to LF so that he would be able to stay in Cincy but that experiment did not work out well and it apparently became clear to the Reds that moving him for talent was their best option. As part of the Mat Latos deal, and with the subsequent departure of Anthony Rizzo, Alonso now appears to be the regular first baseman and is now able to show what he is able to do. Minor league numbers with 1179 AB- 85 2B, 6 3B, 36 HR, 179 RBI and 20/29 SB for a .293/.370/.466 batting line. In 2011 his minor league line was .296 avg, with 24 2B, 4 3B, 12 HR and 56 RBI before his call up in late season. His 88 AB for the Reds yielded a .330 avg with 4 2B, 5 HR, 15 RBI. Not known for his power numbers (FanGraphs grade of 50), Alonso has a line drive swing with gap power. His bat is quick to the ball with a short, compact swing and a short stride. What power he does exhibit seems to work best as a pull hitter. Able to take walks, he has a good eye that is able to discern pitches well and is disciplined. It is interesting to note that Jonathon Mayo of MLB.com, in his recent first base rankings, rated Anthony Rizzo at #1 and Alonso at #2. For those who think the Padres gave up on Rizzo too soon the thinking from the Padres side is that Alonso is better suited to Petco with Rizzo a more pure power hitter and a likely victim of the marine layer and deep fences. The end result of this strategy remains to be seen. Jesus Guzman: Born 6/14/84. Acquired by the Padres before the 2011 season as a free agent, Guzman made a splash during spring training and made the jump to the major league team due to the strength of his hitting. His previous major league experience consisted of 12 games with the San Francisco Giants. For 2011 with the Padres, 76 games and 247 AB yielded a .312/.369/.478 line with 22 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 44 RBI, 22 BB, 43 SO and 9/11 SB. A native of Venezuela, Guzman is 6-1 215 lbs. Bat/throws: R/R and figures to be the primary back up for Alonso at first base. He might be part of a platoon situation to start the season as the Padres ease Alonso into a full time role on the major league team. Kyle Blanks: Blanks is a natural first baseman but is listed on the Padres depth chart and roster as an outfielder (LF). If he makes the opening day roster, Kyle figures to be playing in the outfield but the Padres have a lot of outfielders and most with more experience than Blanks. It is most likely he will start the season in AAA to give him more AB’s on a regular basis and work on his arm strength to further recover from his elbow surgery. Minor league first base prospects: Matt Clark: Born 12/10/86 and drafted in the 12th round of the 2008 draft. Bats/throws: L/R. 6-5 215 lbs. A power hitting first baseman, Clark was pushed off 1B last season and into the outfield. He was odd man out in the Rizzo development project and played more games in the outfield than he did at first base. He figures to share time this season with Cody Decker and would probably be the first to be called up to give Decker more development time (unless Kyle Blanks continues to work at first as well). Over three full seasons (and a few games his signing year) Clark posted 1603 AB with 89 2B, 5 3B, 80 HR, 313 RBI with a .279/.357/.491 line. He has good power and is mostly seen as a hit first 1B. Since being drafted he has had to fight for playing time behind higher drafted and valued prospects (Allan Dykstra, Anthony Rizzo) but has continued to put up good numbers and has shown flexibility by playing the OF. Once again Clark will have to fight for playing time in the 1B/LF mix. Cody Decker: Born 1/17/87 and drafted in 2009 in the 22nd round. Bats/throws: R/R. 5-11 220lbs. In three minor league seasons, Decker has shown the ability to hit for power at times and also for average. With 2011 slated to be his breakout season, Cody had a 3rd degree sprain of his right ankle on May 22 and was not able to come back until late August. This set back really complicated the evaluation of his projection as a prospect. For his line through three seasons he has posted a .281/.358/.555 line with 932 AB over four levels. In his last full season (2010 at Lake Elsinore) Decker hit .270/.352/.513 in 507 AB with 35 2B, 2 3B, 28 HR and 90 RBI. This led to a lot of excitement in looking forward to his AA season with the San Antonio Missions and then the injury derailed him. He finished off the 2011 season with 177 AB with a .237/.289/.525 line and he continued his rehab after the completion of the season to prepare to advance to AAA Tucson beginning 2012. I expect a bounce back year for Decker as he is developing a better eye to go with his power ability and if he can stay healthy he should be in Tucson putting up monster numbers in the second half of the season. Nate Freiman: Born 12/31/86 Drafted in the 8th rnd of the 2009 draft. 6-8 220lbs Freiman has advanced hitting skills but his development has taken a little longer due to his size and the difficulty of organizing/coordinating his tall frame. For his 2011 season at Lake Elsinore he showed plus power, improved eye for the strike zone and an ability to hit high strikes very well. His .288/.354/.487 line in 548 AB with 35 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR and 111 RBI led the Storm in the power categories and indicated an increase in his power hitting skills. Nate should start 2012 with the AA San Antonio Missions and his progress will be closely followed. Connor Powers: Born 12/21/87 Drafted in the 21st rnd of 2010 draft. 6-2 220lbs. Bats/throws R/R. During his 2011 season with Fort Wayne, Powers played 1B, sharing it with Wes Cunningham, and 3B. His 275 AB with 29 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR and 45 RBI resulted in a .338/.422/.538 line. Powers has the ability to play both corners and this season should help to sort out his future in the organization. By sharing the two positions last season, he needs more AB’s this year to show what he is capable of. Wes Cunningham: Born 12/4/87 and drafted in the 17th rnd of the 2010 draft. 6-2 200lbs Bats/throws L/R. His 2011 Fort Wayne line of .268/.345/.381 included 362 AB with 20 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR and 50 RBI. Cunningham has less power potential than Powers and might need an improved line with Lake Elsinore to keep up with Powers in the hitting categories. Coming out of college he was seen as a limited defender that was only capable of playing one position so he must improve his hitting this season to continue his advancement through the system. Zach Kometani: Born 11/26/89 in Hawaii and drafted in the 21st rnd of the 2011 draft out of USD. 6-0 200lbs Bats/throws R/R. Good athletic body with bat speed, good eye, pitch selection skills and a solid glove defensively. Kometani is a converted catcher with average range at 1B. He signed in June of last year and played in a limited basis for the Eugene Emeralds. His .250/.319/.380 line included 13 2B, 4 HR and 39 RBI. It can also be noted that he caught in three games during the season as well and would be a good option as an emergency catcher going forward. Fort Wayne seems to be the most likely 2012 destination. Lee Orr: Born 10/23/88 and drafted in the 13th rnd of the 2011 draft. 6-3 205lbs Bats/throws R/R. Orr played in short season Eugene after his June signing with 210 AB, 13 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR and 35 RBI which resulted in a .219/.364/.414 line. He was able to get more AB’s due to his ability to play the outfield as well as 1B. He has good reach and good power but has a weakness with off speed away, which might account for his lower BA. If he can alter his plate coverage his average should improve over the 2012 season. He will probably continue to play OF as well as 1B to allow Kometani more development. Orr definitely has more power but is less athletic and may not be able to hit for average. We won’t address the international prospects playing in the DR as most of them are very young and many will not make it to the US side of the Padres organization. They will be reviewed as they advance to the States side teams. I thank Ryan Parker of Oregon Baseball Report, Doug Gray of RedsMinorLeagues.com and Marc Hulet of FanGraphs for information used in these reviews. Tags:
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