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You may have heard, but the Padres have a pretty good minor league system. In all seriousness, the Padres minor league system is one of the best, and most certainly one of the deepest, in all of baseball. Usually, in the same articles praising the Padres current organizational success, recently-departed Jed Hoyer is credited with building strong a system and almost as frequently the Sandy Alderson regime is reviled for leaving the system so bereft of talent.
The problem with blaming Alderson, Towers, and company and crediting Hoyer is that it isn’t accurate. The media (sports or otherwise) will latch onto a perception and will run with it. They’ll treat an idea as boilerplate and announce it to their audience as a fact, “As you know, the Padres system hasn’t been very good in a long time…” Occasionally, and more sinisterly, these boilerplate arguments are repeated not even because the media believes them but because they serve an agenda.
Padres’ former team president, Sandy Alderson, was reputed to have a college-first/college-heavy approach to drafting. And certainly the Padres did draft more collegians than high school players under his tenure. But that approach was supposedly a low-risk/low-reward approach. However several highly regarded MLB players drafted during the Alderson regime throw a collective wrench into that logic… What we’re left with is groupthink.
Dictionary.com defines “Groupthink” as: “the lack of individual creativity…that is sometimes characteristic of a group.”
The problem with such overarching statements as, “The Padres have not drafted well,” or, “The Padres haven’t had a good system in a decade,” or “The Padres haven’t produced any legitimate big leaguers recently…” …is facts. Facts often contradict groupthink. Groupthink doesn’t always guarantee inaccuracy but they are frequent bedfellows.
So let’s look at the facts…
Fact #1: In 2004 the Padres badly mishandled the first pick in the draft by drafting Matt Bush.
Fact #2: After the 2004 debacle, Padres owner John Moores brought in Sandy Alderson to oversee the baseball operations.
Fact #3: Ever since the 2004 draft, the Padres have missed on their first selection in every draft since (2009 and 2011 may end up not being a “misses” since we do not know how Donovan Tate and/or Cory Spangenberg will turn out).
Fact #4: The Padres have drafted very well in the later rounds.
Fact #5: The Padres have developed several legitimate big leaguers and even some who are All Star caliber.
Knowing Towers’ poor track record in the draft (even prior to the Bush debacle; which ironically wasn’t entirely Towers’ fault), Alderson brought in Grady Fuson to oversee the minor league development and the draft. Here are the five drafts Fuson oversaw with the Padres:
2005: The first pick was Cesar Carrillo and while he was a legitimate pick – he was well thought of where the Padres were drafting but injuries derailed his careers. Other 2005 draftees:
- Chase Headley
- Nick Hundley
- Will Venable
- 2006: The first pick was Matt Antonelli. Antonelli was one of the best athletes (something experts said the Padres didn’t draft) in the entire draft. He was the high school player of the year in two sports and received other state honors in a third. He wasn’t a five-tool player (he didn’t have above average power) but to question his athleticism is ignorance. Like other Padres first rounder picks, he didn’t work out and was released by the Padres. Unlike some of other picks, Antonelli still has a chance to have a career. Other 2006 draftees:
- Wade LeBlanc
- David Freese
- Mat Latos
- 2007: The first pick was Nick Schmidt. Schmidt was immediately reviled because he wasn’t Rick Porcello (who was still on the board). Porcello was asking for a $7mm bonus and the Padres were not going to spend that kind of money… However, Michael Main was on the board and many (including myself) thought the Padres should have drafted Main (again with the irony theme: Main’s career has also scuttled). This year was probably the Fuson’s least successful draft with the Padres. Here are some of the Padres more successful picks from 2007:
- Drew Cumberland
- Cory Luebke
- Eric Sogard
- Luis Martinez
2008: The first pick was Allan Dykstra. Dykstra was picked because he had “Petco-proof power.” Unfortunately, he also had Petco-sized holes in his long swing. Chalk up another first-round failure… The jury is still out on this draft as the best picks from this draft either haven’t reached the bigs yet, or are just beginning their Major League careers. Several ’08 draftees dot the Friarhood Top 10. Notable others:
- Jaff Decker
- Anthony Bass
- James Darnell
- Logan Forsythe
- Blake Tekotte
- Brad Brach
- 2009: Before we get into this draft, we have to acknowledge that while there are several exciting players in this draft, the best player(s) might be unlisted here and each and every one I list may still flame out… The first pick was Donovan Tate. Tate was an obvious choice. He was one a very few guys who were legitimate candidates at that slot. The number one overall that year was an obvious choice, Stephen Strasburg. And number two was nearly as obvious, Dustin Ackley. Tate oozes athleticism. He is one of the best athletes in all of minor league baseball. He even has the skills to turn those tools into top-flight production. Unfortunately, like so many other Padres’ first round selections, he has missed way too much playing time to injuries and, in Tate’s case, a suspension. Other notables:
- Keyvius Sampson
- Jason Hagerty
- Matt Lollis
- Lastly, in addition to drafting well (with the notable exception of their first round choices) the Padres have also signed quite a bit of talent out of Latin American counties (each of the following were signed under Alderson regime):
- Joakim Soria
- Jonathan Galvez
- Adys Portillo
- Simon Castro
- Rymer Liriano
- As you can see, while it would be foolish to say that Hoyer didn’t improve the system (and do-so in flying colors), it would be just as foolish to say that the Alderson regime left the system devoid of talent. 2012 promises to be an exciting year for the Padres with all the big league changes new GM Josh Byrnes has made. It also will be interesting to watch the development/progress of the minor league stars as they process through the levels. And when the Padres get back to contending for NL West titles (which I think will happen soon) make sure to tip your cap to Sandy Alderson, Kevin Towers, Grady Fuson, and Paul DePodesta.
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Comments
Obviously Hoyer does get some credit for where the system ranks now, but he made some critical errors. A few come to mind.
1. Not signing Whitson for an extra 200K was a huge mistake.
2. Not moving Bell, Qualls, and Harang at the deadline cost the Padres over $4M.
3. The Padres system under Hoyer is more a reflection of what a farm system can look like if you trade away good major league talent for minor league hope.
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