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LoMo? No. LoSythe? Yes. PDF Print E-mail
Voice of the Fan - Padres Fan Blogs
Written by Chris Kelly   
Saturday, 18 February 2012 14:28
Sharing is Caring

Forsythe1There’s a player by the name of Logan Morrison down in Miami (still getting used to that team name) who’s garnering plenty of attention and for good reason. In six minor league seasons, Morrison hit: .290/.381/.464 (.845 OPS). This past season, his first full big league season, Morrison put up: .247/.330/.468 (.798 OPS). He walked 10.3% of the time, struck out 18.9%, and slugged an impressive .221 ISO. The future looks bright for the 6’3” 235 lb left-handed 1B/OF. Additionally, he seems to be a Twitter darling and he has a catchy nickname: LoMo.

Okay, that’s great. Hey, isn’t this a Padres site?

It is. And the Padres have their own Logan as well: Logan Forsythe. Is there a connection? You mean outside of the name? Sort of. The two have put up similar MiLB numbers. In four minor league seasons, Forsythe manufactured: .286/.414/.412 (.826 OPS). That’s pretty much where the comparison ends, though. My apologies.

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Now, more about our Logan. Forsythe, the former first rounder (2008), rose quickly through the system. He split his first season between the Arizona League Padres (Rookie) and Eugene (A-). The following year, he skipped Ft. Wayne (A) and split AB’s between Lake Elsinore (A+) and San Antonio (AA). For the 2010 season, Forsythe spent the duration at San Antonio. Last season, he started in Tucson and finished with the big league club. In a mere 169 PA’s with San Diego, Forsythe produced: .213/.281/.287 (.568 OPS).

Forsythe was drafted as a 3B out of the University of Arkansas, where he played for three seasons before being drafted. What was notable in college was his improvement from his freshman season to his sophomore. In 2006 as a frosh, he hit a paltry .189. For his sophomore season he dramatically improved to .347, the Hogs’ best hitter. Also of note, in a March game during his sophomore season, Forsythe smacked two hits off former first pick, David Price.

Now, the glut of third basemen in the Padres’ system (then and now) contributed to the organization’s decision to move him to 2B. The problem here is that Forsythe’s defense is better suited for 3B, yet his bat profiles better at 2B. Defensively, Forsythe shows quick reactions and a strong arm. He plays as well on charged balls as any of the elite third baseman in the league. His limiting factor at second, though, is his most likely his range.

Don’t get me wrong, Forsythe is not a clog at any position. He’s athletic enough that he played LF, 3B, SS, and 2B during his 2007 season with Team USA for the Pan Am Games. It’s just that his solid frame (6’1”, 205 lbs) makes lateral movements a bit more challenging. However, there’s no reason he couldn’t grow into an average or slightly above average 2B. That defense, combined with an established big league bat, would be of value for the Padres. Forsythe is certainly not pegged as a power hitter, as the only season his ISO cracked .200 was with Tucson last season. And the hitting dynamics of that league have been detailed ad nauseam.

Forsythe’s skill set, offensively, is seen in his OBP. He’s a machine at getting on base. He has a discerning eye and a disciplined approach. Or does he? His strikeout percentages are a bit alarming for a hitter of his type. Here’s a table comparing his BB% to his K%:

YEAR/LEVEL

BB%

K%

2009/A+

20.0

15.7

2009/AA

14.1

21.7

2010/AA

15.9

20.1

2011/AAA

15.1

22.9

2011/MLB

7.1

19.5

courtesy of Fangraphs.com

I chose these seasons because of the number of at bats. They represent the bulk of his career. His AB’s at the lower levels were few. I included his big league numbers just to give you some idea, but 169 PA’s is really not a large enough sample. Now, the K% isn’t alarming in and of itself, but if he is going to crack the starting lineup, especially in the 2-hole, for example, he has to reduce those strikeouts. It’s an unusual combination to have high numbers in both K% and BB%.

Now, where does he fit on this club? It seems that San Diego has him pegged as a utility player. Maybe that is his ceiling; maybe he’s capable of more. He can play 3B and 2B reliably with the occasional fill in at SS if necessary. That does make him a valuable bench player. The ability to get on base will also help him find the lineup fairly regularly. With where his K% sits, pinch hitting may not be a successful endeavor for him, though.

One problem for Forsythe is his potential as a starting 2B is severely hampered by a bad signing in Orlando Hudson. The club is spending too much money on Hudson to cut him, and he’s not an interesting trade commodity. Ultimately, Hudson would have to completely collapse this season to lose his standing in the lineup. Not totally impossible, but likely improbable.

What about 3B? Well, Chase Headley has established himself as a big league regular. Sure, the power hasn’t blossomed, but the bat and defense are very strong. Now, if Headley were to be moved in a trade, Forsythe would be the best candidate to immediately replace him. That opportunity could lead to regular playing time, allowing Forsythe to establish himself, but his numbers would really have to shine to keep him in the lineup at 3B. There are too many other options in the system for that position not to produce. Jedd Gyorko seems the heir apparent but could use more seasoning in the minors. Plugging in Forsythe and letting Gyorko continue to gain experience would make sense unless Gyorko’s numbers are just too overwhelming…and they just might be.

The other issue that comes into play with Forsythe is Everth Cabrera. Cabrera brings to the middle infield all the tools you like: speed, instinct, range, arm. If he can re-establish his bat, he becomes another factor that may affect Forsythe’s playing time. Cabrera is best suited for 2B, but he has shown the ability to play SS. If Jason Bartlett struggles again at short, or if the team winds up moving him, then Cabrera can be plugged into SS. That keeps him out of Forsythe’s way.

For my money, I’d like to see a middle infield combo of Cabrera and Forsythe. Ultimately, that is a bit of a gamble that could backfire, but with regular at bats for these players, I believe they could at least match the performance of the current Bartlett/Hudson combo. Bartlett’s .245/.308/.307 could easily be matched by Cabrera. In his first season in San Diego, Cabrera produced: .255/.342/.361. Sure, he scuffled the following season, but he’s certainly capable of at least that production again…possibly more. For Hudson, he managed: .246/.329/.352.  It’s hard to project what Forsythe could produce, but I’d guess: .255/.380/.370. Not a terrible improvement, but better and for less cost—both monetarily and in the clubhouse.

Well, the time for ifs, projections, and guesses is finally coming to an end, as pitchers and catchers report Sunday. It’s time for the players to prove what they can do on the field. Time to PLAY BALL!
 

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