The losing streak aside, there are some major decisions that need to be made this off-season. In my eyes, one major one is whether or not Chase Headley is the long-term answer at third base. Granted, he’s still young and is wrapping up his first full season at the position. But I crunched some numbers and I am distressed by the trend.

 First, let’s look at Headley’s first 3 seasons in the bigs (I include ’08, since he appeared in 90 games).

1^st: .269, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 19 2B, 3.18 K/BB

2^nd: .262, 12 HR, 64 RBI, 31 2B, 4.08 K/BB

So, better… right? I mean not Mike Schmidt improvement year-to-year, but still better. Then, here’s 2010 (where he’s had the same AB’s as he had last year, so it’s a good comp):

3^rd: .272, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 27 2B, 4.94 K/BB.

 So… what can we see? Average is up, slightly. Strikeouts are down, slightly. But the power and RBI numbers are down. So making MORE contact, he’s getting FEWER extra-base hits? Before we draw any conclusions, let’s look at the first three years of another Padre and see if we see a correlation.

1^st: .286, 7 HR, 58 RBI, 27 2B, 6.89 K/BB

2^nd: .298, 2 HR, 47 RBI, 23 2B, 10.05 K/BB

3^rd: .250, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 7 2B, 6.91 K/BB (in only 93 games, so about half a season)

If you’re a Padres fan, you recognize those numbers. If you’re not, that is the epic failure known as Sean Burroughs. Had a 2003 that had us thinking he was the solution at third base, rarely struck out and darned near became the first Padre to hit .300 since Tony Gwynn. 2004 came around and we saw an even high average and better K/BB, but the power numbers were down. And then there was 2005. ick. Granted, the kid was hurt part of the year, but the guy stopped improving. In fact, he regressed.

 Now, am I saying Chase Headley is Sean Burroughs? Of course not… but then again, I see a real eerie similarity between Burrough’s improved contact/depressed power in ’03 and ’04… with Headley’s ’09 and ’10. And the fact that Headley has gained nothing at all in power numbers despite moving into the prime of his career is even more distressing. Sure the guy steals bases, but is that what you want out of your number 5 hitter and a corner infielder. In fact, I would argue that Headley looks to steal bases to increase his own value and keep his job.

 I like how he plays, I’ve interviewed him in the clubhouse when I did some TV stuff and he’s a good dude. But, clubhouse chemistry aside, this cannot be all you get out of your third baseman. Where do we go from here? I dunno. What I do know is that the Padres need to consider their future at third base. Not that third basemen are easy to come by… you think the Cubs would like to have the Aramis Ramirez deal back? Probably… I guess the point is, Chase Headley might be playing for his job, starting next year…. especially with James Darnell and Logan Forsythe breathing down his back-side.