According to what the experts are saying, Padres GM Jed Hoyer may have overplayed his hand in July when he couldn’t find a trade partner willing to meet his asking price for veteran reliever Heath Bell. Hoyer’s position made perfect sense at the time. Bell, who will be a UFA this winter, would net the Friars two draft picks if he were to sign elsewhere after being offered arbitration by San Diego. Hoyer rightfully expected a package of equivalent value to those draft choices. No one met that demand and today Bell remains a member of the Padres.

The problem the Friars will face this winter is the likelihood Bell will accept their offer of arbitration. Doing so will almost assuredly net the right-hander a 2012 salary in excess of $10 million. Only six relievers are earning salaries higher than $10 million this season but since Bell is one of the better closers in baseball, is a three-time all-star and is making $7.5 million in 2011, a $10 million award is probable in arbitration.

Now as Mr. Adler wrote in an earlier Friarhood post, Padres owner Jeff Moorad has stated the 2012 major league payroll figure will begin with a “5.” That means it could be anything from $50 million up to $59.999 million but my guess is it will be closer to the former rather than the latter. So if Bell gets $10 million in arbitration he would likely account for between 18 and 20 percent of the Friars 2012 payroll.

As many of you already know, I subscribe to the use of advanced stats in baseball. Stat geeks hate relievers. They opine the volatility of relievers’ performances from year to year and describe them as “fungible” or replaceable assets. Every time another free agent reliever gets a rich contract from some team the blogosphere alights with criticism from every self-respecting stat guy around.

Hey, I get it and I agree; for the most part. Heath Bell represents a different case and even stat geeks will tell you there are virtually no universal rules in baseball that should never be broken. The Padres need to extend Bell and the sooner the better.

Set all the numbers aside for a minute, and I would ordinarily be hesitant to give a multi-year deal to any pitcher who has experienced such a precipitous drop in his K/9 rate (down over 40% from a career high 11.06 last season to just 6.58 this). Bell has tremendous value to the Padres apart from his raw numbers. Signing Bell to an extension will show fans and more importantly the Friars young core players that the club is willing to pay to keep top talent.

I don’t think any rational Padres fan expects the club to ever have a payroll on par with the Yankees, Red Sox or even the rival Dodgers. We do want to see the Friars keep popular and good ballplayers in town though if they can do so at a fair cost. Bell wants to be here. He has said he would be willing to take a hometown discount to remain if the club works with him on term. How many talented baseball players in the game today would be willing to leave substantial cash on the table to remain with a club not likely to contend for a championship for at least another couple of seasons? None, that’s how many, except for maybe Heath Bell.

It’s important to find a way to keep Bell in San Diego. Instead of a $10 million salary for 2012 why don’t the Friars agree to extend Bell for two guaranteed years at $8 million per? They can include a mutual option for 2014 at the same salary with a $2 million buyout. That brings the total value up to $18 million guaranteed if the Padres declined their end of the mutual option. That seems pretty fair to me.

I know Bell has asked for three years but maybe he’d be willing to accept two if the Padres include a mutual option. Bell is no spring chicken; he’s 33 currently. The extension would take him through his age 35 season.

On the Padres side, if Bell is still a reliable reliever after 2013, the Friars could pick up their end of the option for a price of just $6 million. That could be a steal if market conditions for relievers in two years are anything like they are today. Plus the Friars could field better trade offers if Bell is locked up to a below-market contract for multiple years.

This really should be a no-brainer for Friar management. They have a popular and skilled player willing to take less to stay in San Diego. Extending him would send a positive message to fans and future Friar free agents when their deals run out. Players like Mat Latos, Anthony Rizzo et al need to see that this ownership and management team are willing to spend to keep top talent in town. Get it done Jed!

(Edit: It was pointed out to me that an interview conducted with Heath by the UT's Bill Center included comments by Heath regarding what type of numbers he was looking at for a new deal. First he feels he may get as much as $12 million through arbitration.

Then he talks about more specifically what type of long-term deal he desires.

"If they offer me three years at $27 million, we'd talk. If they offered me three years at $30 million, I would really have to consider it. Maybe I could get an All-Star bonus. I'd like that."

Plain and simply I do not follow Sign on San Diego for my Padres news and I do not have a subscription to the UT. I didn't see these statements. I apologize.

Nonetheless they do not in anyway alter the voracity of my belief the Padres need to extend Bell. From his statements it is clear he is open to discussing manydifferent options which would keep him in San Diego.

Sure, he seems set on three years but there are ways, as I pointed out earlier in this post, to creatively construct a deal that could appease both sides. If it will cost the Padres an extra million or so per season or they need to creatively address a third season then fine, they still need to get an extension done.)