Excited yet Padres fans? We’re about a week away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training and that means baseball is back. It’s been a busy offseason with tons of player movement. How is the Friars opening day roster going to look after all of the wheeling-and-dealing? Despite the multitude of player moves, I don’t imagine there will be many questions to be answered during the exhibition season. I’ll take a stab at forecasting the Padres 25-man roster as they break camp in this post with explanations for each.

Outfield (5)

Starters

Carlos Quentin

Cameron Maybin

Will Venable

Reserves

Mark Kotsay

Chris Denorfia

Quentin is a lock after Byrnes dealt two young pitchers to the White Sox and given his track record he will be counted on to produce offense from the middle of the lineup.

Maybin was recently selected as the Friars team MVP and is a great defender at a premium defensive position. His offensive game shows some potential for growth and it’s already better than league-average.

Venable and Denorfia will platoon in RF. Both are above-average defenders with Denorfia actually performing better in RF than Venable according to FanGraph’s UZR/150 metric. Venable hit better in 2011 versus RH pitching than left (108 wRC+ vs. RH, 30 wRC+ vs. LH). Denorfia, a RH swinger, hit LH pitching to the tune of a wRC+ of 153 but is just a 78 wRC+ versus RHP last year. A platoon makes sense here with Venable starting against righties and Denorfia getting the call against southpaws.

Kotsay is here more for what he brings in the room rather than his on-field production. He hasn’t been worth even a 1.0 WAR since 2005 when he was still playing in Oakland. His defense is average or slightly above in LF and 1B but well below in CF and RF. The Padres missed the veteran leadership last year that guys like David Eckstein and Matt Stairs brought to the club in 2010 and hope Kotsay can help restore that in 2012.

Infield (6)

Starters

Yonder Alonso

Orlando Hudson

Jason Bartlett

Chase Headley

Reserves

Jesus Guzman

Everth Cabrera

The Padres cleared 1B for Alonso when they shipped Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs. They feel he is better suited to hit at Petco than Rizzo and Alonso might have a shot to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.

Hudson and Bartlett both struggled last year after being acquired to upgrade the club’s middle infield. Bartlett in particular struggled with the glove while Hudson rubbed Friar fans the wrong way with his sometimes inconsistent effort. The Padres even looked at the possibility of moving one or both but there was understandably little interest. With a lot of money guaranteed to them the Padres will have to hope they perform better in 2012.

Headley might be an All-Star if he played elsewhere. Petco saps his power but he still contributed in 2011 with the bat as his wRC+ of 125 would attest. That figure would have placed him 6^th in the majors among 3B had he had enough plate appearances to qualify. His triple slash line last year was .289/.374/.399. His slugging lacks for a power position but his OBP is great for a 3B (second among MLB 3B).

Guzman is going to get some AB’s, likely at 1B against tough LHP, perhaps some at 3B and at DH in interleague games. He deserves a chance to show if he can repeat his performance from last season when he was the Padres most dangerous hitter in the second half.

Cabrera will probably get the nod as the final reserve infielder. His ability to handle SS defensively gives him the upper-hand over Logan Forsythe in that battle. Cabrera was a revelation just a few seasons ago but has really struggled since, in part due to injuries. Forsythe still has a future but needs regular playing time to realize it.

Catcher (2)

Nick Hundley

John Baker

Hundley had a nice season with the bat in 2011; at least when he was in the lineup. Injuries limited the four-year veteran to just 308 PA last season. However his triple-slash line of .288/.347/.477 was among the best in baseball for catchers (4^th, 11^th and 3^rd respectively among backstops with at least 250 AB). His wRC+ of 132 ranked third among MLB receivers. Surprisingly he was more effective against RHP than LHP (139 wRC+ versus 110 wRC+). Now if he can just stay healthy.

If Hundley does continue to battle the injury-bug, John Baker is here to provide the Padres with a better hitting alternative. Of course Baker himself has had problems staying on the field. He has just 104 big league PA over the last two seasons. When healthy, as he was in 2009, Baker can hit. That season he posted a roughly league average wRC+ of 99 with Florida.

Perhaps just as important as his role as the backup catcher is the fact he hits LH. The Padres were terrible against RHP last season finishing 27^th in baseball with a wRC+ of 83. Baker, for his career, has a wRC+ of 105 against righties. He gives the Friars a solid LH hitting option in the lineup or late in games as a pinch-hitter.

Starting Rotation (5)

Tim Stauffer

Clayton Richard

Edinson Volquez

Cory Luebke

Dustin Moseley

With the departure of Mat Latos, Stauffer is the surest thing in the Padres rotation. He won 9 games last season and recorded a xFIP of 3.71. Maybe in many rotations Stauffer is no better than the #3 or #4 but here in San Diego and pitching at Petco, Stauffer should still give San Diego solid starts.

Richard returns after an injury-shortened 2011 and the hope is he is more the guy who won 14 games and ate up 200+ innings in 2010 than the pitcher who threw less than 100 innings with an xFIP 0.40 points higher than the previous year. The decrease in his K/9 rate was disturbing but his BB/9 rate and BABIP were both a bit better. At Petco, the fewer batters a pitcher puts on base the better.

Volquez might be primed for a turnaround season. After being an All Star in 2008, Volquez missed significant chunks of the next two seasons due to injury and a 50-game PED suspension. Last year he wasn’t particularly good either but if he can keep his BB/9 rate down he could have a nice bounce-back year.

Luebke is an intriguing guy. In 139.2 innings last year the young LHP averaged nearly 10 K/9 while allowing fewer than 3 free passes per 9 IP. His W/L record of 6 – 10 belied his peripheral numbers. According to multiple sources he has the ceiling of a #2 starter and the Friars would certainly love to see that type of production this year.

Moseley was a victim of terrible run support a year ago. He posted an ERA of just 3.30 but was rewarded with just three wins against 10 losses. Like Richard, Moseley missed significant time due to injury. He’ll compete in camp with a variety of young arms for the fifth spot and he’ll likely give way to one of them at some point even if he wins the contest in the spring.

Bullpen (7)

Huston Street

Andrew Cashner

Luke Gregerson

Ernesto Frieri

Josh Spence

Micah Owings

Joe Thatcher

Street was acquired to replace All Star closer Heath Bell, who departed in free agency. He has 178 career saves and moving to Petco should only help his production.

Cashner came over from Chicago in the Rizzo trade and should assume a role in the back of the Friars bullpen this year. His fastball, which approaches 100 MPH, could make him a top-notch reliever this year and one day a premier closer. Cashner has been told he’ll be given every opportunity to convert back to being a starter in 2013 which could significantly boost his overall value.

Gregerson and Frieri both battled inconsistency last year but have the tools to be effective relievers. Gregerson combined in 2010 with the departed Mike Adams and Bell to turn each contest with the Padres into a six inning affair. That’s how good he was. Frieri might have had the best stuff of any reliever prior to the acquisition of Cashner.

Josh Spence and Joe Thatcher will be the left-handed options out of the pen. Spence burst onto the scene last year when he allowed just 1 ER in his first 21.1 IP. He scuffled a little the rest of the way but still should have a future as a lefty specialist at least.

Michah Owings is likely better-known for being a pretty good hitter rather than pitcher but he can be effective as the last bullpen arm. He’ll be the swing guy and possibly get some PH opportunities. Anthony Bass was okay in a brief cameo in San Diego but his peripheral numbers were weak so more time in the minors would probably be a good thing for a guy who in 2010 spent most of the year at Single-A Lake Elsinore.

Not really any surprises and I don’t see any of the non-roster guys mounting a real serious challenge. Perhaps LHP Alex Hinshaw, formerly of the Giants but out of the majors last year, might make a case for a bullpen job over Thatcher. It’s also plausible the recently acquired Brad Boxberger might carve out a spot should one of the other relievers get hurt in spring.

There you have it folks. Offensively the club looks to be improved, especially if Hudson and Bartlett hit better. The rotation should keep the team in most games even if the loss of Latos wasn’t adequately filled. The bullpen is radically different but the club appears to have enough arms that Bud Black should be able to construct a decent enough corps of relievers.

Are the playoffs in store for San Diego? Probably not but I like the roster construction a lot better than the team that finished the 2011 campaign. With what some pundits have ranked as the top farm system in baseball and a big league payroll larger than last year’s, things are at least looking up some as the 2012 season is set to kick-off.