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| Kouz for Hairston: Analyzing the move a year later |
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| Voice of the Fan - Glen's Gab | |
| Written by Glen Miller | |
| Monday, 22 November 2010 16:41 | |
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In free agency, Jerry Hairston Jr. was signed after winning a World Championship with the Yankees. While his offensive contributions (.652 OPS in 476 PA) were not very desirable, it was his versatility and ability to play several positions well that made him a valuable member of the Padres. Hairston Jr. finished 2010 with a 9.8 UZR/150 mark at SS and a 14.7 UZR/150 rating at 2B. Jon Garland did what he always does; pitch 200 innings of league average or slightly better baseball. The Padres, needing a veteran innings-eater to lead a young rotation, signed Garland to a 1 year deal with a mutual option. He finished with exactly 200 IP and posted a 3.47 ERA in what will probably be his only season as a Padre.
While each of these FA additions played integral roles in the Padres strong season, let’s analyze how Hoyer’s first significant trade worked out for the club? For those that don’t remember, on January 16th the Padres dealt 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and 2B prospect Eric Sogard to the Oakland A’s for OF’s Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham. The move was made in large part to open up third for Chase Headley; one of the Padres better young hitters. On the surface the move looked to benefit both teams. The A’s were looking for an upgrade from Jack Hanahan and his toothpick-like bat at 3B. Former all-star Eric Chavez couldn’t be counted on due to his health (or lack thereof) history and the 2009 starter at third, Adam Kennedy, was a free agent. Kouzmanoff isn’t the ideal Billy Beane player as he doesn’t get on base (.302 career OBP) but he does have pop (62 career HR in 3 ML seasons prior to 2010) and can play the position well defensively (ML record .990 fielding % in 2009). It was also hoped a move away from the confidence-crushing confines of Petco Park would show in Kouzmanoff’s production. Granted, Oakland’s home park isn’t exactly known as a hitter’s haven but Petco is the most notorious pitcher’s park in MLB. Kouzmanoff didn’t produce offensively as hoped. His line of .247/.283/.396 all represented career-lows in each category. He did club 16 HR, which led the power deficient A’s but that’s more representative of how lacking Oakland was in the power department than any testament to Kouzmanoff’s production. The A’s, obviously looking for an upgrade offensively at the position, recently went out and acquired former Blue Jay 3B Edwin Encarnacion. The move can’t bode well for Kouzmanoff’s future in Oakland. Kouz is set for arbitration and a season after earning a shade over $3 million, he is a likely non-tender candidate at this point. It is important to note that according to Fan Graphs UZR/150 rating, Kouzmanoff was even better with the glove at 3B in 2010 than he was in setting the record for fielding percentage in 2009. His 2010 UZR/150 mark of 17.5 placed him 3rd in all of baseball and was 7.6 runs better than his 2009 rating of 9.9. The other player acquired by the A’s, Eric Sogard, is a Billy Beane player. The 2B is a left-handed hitter that knows how to get on base. His 2010 AAA Sacramento line was .300/.391/.407. That was right in line with his career numbers in the minors: .295/.380/.414 in 1,990 PA. Sogard may not be one of the most exciting prospects in MLB but he does look like he can be an average offensive 2B starter or platoon guy. The Padres rationale for making the move, aside from opening a spot for Headley, was in adding some athleticism and pop to a light-hitting OF. The Friars had moved Hairston in the summer of 2009 to the A’s in exchange for 3 pitchers; Sean Gallagher, Craig Italiano and Ryan Webb (sound familiar). Hairston was raking at the time of the deal. The OF had an OPS of .891 in just more than 200 PA in San Diego. The Friars hoped to get more of that from Hairston in 2010. Hairston flopped badly in his return to the team. He posted just a .210/.295/.346 line in 336 2010 PA. There wasn’t much value in his glove either as he posted just a 0.1 UZR/150 rating last season. Hairston is also arbitration eligible and with a glut of OF in San Diego, he is also a likely non-tender candidate. Aaron Cunningham, despite showing flashes of starter potential, was little more than a replacement-level player for the Padres too. In 147 PA, the 24 year-old OF posted a pedestrian .748 OPS; a number which ranked solid on the Padres roster (4th among Friar batters with more than 100 PA) but wouldn’t be very impressive in most cities. Cunningham was more valuable to the Friars than Hairston (0.7 WAR vs. 0.4 War) but that’s really not saying too much. In fact, when comparing Hairston’s and Cunningham’s combined WAR against that of Kevin Kouzmanoff, the Friars look to come out on the short end of the stick in this deal. However, there is more to this move than just the 4 player exchange. We also need to look at whether the return to his natural position resulted in improved performance from Chase Headley. Headley teased Friar fans by getting out of the gates strong in 2010. He finished April with .322 batting average and a .783 OPS before crashing back to earth. His final line of .264/.327/.375 was even worse than his 2009 season totals; .262/.342/.392. Evidently, a return to his natural defensive position did nothing to spark Headley’s stick. However, Headley fared much, much better in the field at 3B than he ever did in the OF. To put it kindly, Headley was/is an abysmal OF with a career UZR/150 mark of -13.1. Going back to 3B proved to be a good defensive move for the Padres as Headley finished with the major’s best UZR/150 rating for eligible 3B with a 17.9. Because of his glove work, Chase was a 4.6 WAR player for the Friars. To recap, the A’s received 2.9 WAR from Kouzmanoff and a decent 2B prospect while the Friars got near replacement-level production from Hairston and Cunningham. At least Cunningham is young enough that he may show more value in future years. The Padres also got an extra 3.1 wins of value out of simply moving Headley from LF back to 3B. All-in-all, I would give the Friars a very slight win on this deal. Headley is still a better hitter than Kouzmanoff is and while Kouz has tapped his potential, there is still a small chance Headley can get better with the bat. Headley also proved to at least be Kouzmanoff’s equal in the field. Unless Sogard turns out to be an all-star, give the Padres and Jed Hoyer a slight victory in the first-time GM’s first trade.
Glen writes Padres stories for Friarhood.com, but you can read his non-Padres related work on SDSportsnet.com
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