Last week I analyzed the Kevin Kouzmanoff/Scott Hairston deal and touched on why the Padres were willing to move Kouzmanoff. Of course they had an up-and-comer at 3B in Chase Headley who started his major league career playing out of position in LF. Moving Kouzmanoff freed Headley to return to his natural position. Headley wasn’t as productive as hoped last season and that begs the question, can Headley be the answer at 3B for San Diego?

In the minors, Headley was a terrific hitter posting a slash line of .301/.399/.500 in 1,663 minor league plate appearances. He recorded an OPS of 1.016 in 522 PA at the AA level in his age 23 season. The next year in 295 AAA plate appearances, Headley had an OPS mark of .939 before his play earned him a promotion to San Diego.

Headley started off fairly well with a .757 OPS in 368 PA in 2008; a figure which would have placed him 15^th among eligible 3B in that category. Unfortunately, Headley’s numbers have declined since his promising rookie season. In 2009 he recorded a .734 OPS which would have tied him for 17^th among major league 3B. His production declined further in 2010 after shifting back to 3B. His OPS of .702 was good for just 18^th in the major leagues at his position but put him ahead of Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Headley’s 1,675 major league PA represent a large enough sample size to discourage most Friar fans. We expected far better at this stage of his development. It isn’t as if we ever thought we were getting Alex Rodriguez but we wanted better than Jhonny Perralta and Brandon Inge production.

Headley’s minor league numbers suggested he could be a .800 OPS type of hitter. His minor league career OPS was .899 after all. Despite his struggles, I think it’s too early to give up on Headley turning into a better hitter. For comparative purposes here are some minor league numbers of a major league all-star player that are very similar to Headley’s.

Player X

Career minor league slash line: .299/.442/.439

OPS: .881

Minor League PA: 1,814

Chase Headley

Career Minor League Slash Line: .301/.399/.500

OPS: .881

Minor League PA: 1,675

Player X has a superior minor league OBP to Headley’s but Headley recorded a better slugging %. Player X’s stats were accrued from his age 22 – 26 seasons while Headley compiled his during his age 21 – 24 years. Player X is “The Greek God of Walks,” Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis has developed into an all-star player in Boston; perhaps his development is a sign that Headley could do the same.

Of course minor league numbers are only an indicator of future major league performance and by no means are fail safe. Also, Youkilis plays his home games in the friendlier confines of Fenway Park whereas Headley must face Petco Park and its stat killing tendencies. So let’s take a look at how Youkilis fared in his first couple of major league seasons using the OPS+ stat which takes into account ballpark factors.

Youkilis (age 25 season) – OPS+: 99

Headley (age 25 season) – OPS+: 102

Youkilis (age 26 season) – OPS+: 113

Headley (age 26 season) – OPS+: 97

Certainly Youkilis was significantly better at 26 than Headley but at 25 Chase was just a bit better. I think at worst Headley deserves one more season to see what he can deliver.

Headley also qualified as a “super 2” player this year making him eligible for arbitration and a likely salary far in excess of what Padres’ brass had hoped for. Still, even if we anticipate an award of $2 million or so for the 2011 season, Headley is a bargain compared to some of the other 3B options available in free agency. For example; Detroit’s Inge, a career .701 OPS and a .718 OPS last season, was just re-signed by the Tigers to a 2 year deal worth $11.5 million guaranteed. Headley at $2 million seems a bargain in comparison.

I’d also like to note that Chase, a switch-hitter, is a much better hitter from the left side than the right. Last year he was a .754 OPS from the left side but just a .589 OPS as a RH batter. His career OPS is roughly 100 points better as a LH hitter than as a RH batter.

If I am Jed Hoyer and I want to maximize Chase’s value to the team, I go out and get a right-handed hitting complement to play 3B against LH pitching. Maybe a guy like Miguel Tejada, who has a .803 OPS against LH pitching over the last 3 seasons, would be a good platoon partner for Headley. A starting IF of Headley at 3B, Tejada at SS, Orlando Hudson at 2B and Gonzo at 1B sounds appealing. Jerry Hairston Jr, a RH batter, could be used to fill in at SS to spell Tejada while Miggy could slide over to 3B against LH pitching. Just a thought; forgive my rambling.

Regardless, 2011 is a critical year for Headley and his Friar future. The fact he will now be arbitration eligible a year earlier than expected will likely force the Padres to make a difficult decision after this next year. Headley can do everyone a favor by producing better numbers at the plate and making it easier for the Friars to pay Headley an amount arbitration is going to award him.