By now we’ve all heard the Padres and Red Sox finally got together on the much-expected Adrian Gonzalez trade. The trade isn’t official as the Sox were granted a window with which to negotiate a contract extension with Gonzalez though some reports say Boston is more interested in discussing the parameters of an extension. The rationale being the club wants to be sure the shoulder is 100%. Nonetheless the deal is expected to go through.

Much analysis has already been done on 3 of the 4 prospects the Friars are to receive. The 4^th will be announced probably following the rule 5 draft. For the most part, experts and Padre fans agree; the club got solid return for a player they knew they would not be able to keep beyond 2011.

Regardless of how good the return package is, none of the players the Friars are set to acquire is likely going to make any impact on the 2011 Padres. Thus the loss of one of the best 1B in the game creates a huge hole in the Padres lineup. How will the club fill that hole; at least for the 2011 season?

Given the Padres budgetary situation, the club isn’t going to go out and spend big bucks on a FA. That leaves the team with two options. They could either look in-house or scour the free agent market and sign a stop-gap solution. Let’s see what the Friars have as possible in-house solutions.

Kyle Blanks

Blanks has been the guy Friars management and fans were expecting to plug right in at 1B in the event of an Adrian deal. Unfortunately, the Tommy John surgery he had last summer on his right elbow complicates matters somewhat.

The recovery was projected to take between 7 and 10 months and recent reports indicate he will be able to swing a bat come spring training. His throwing arm is expected to be at around 75%.

Ideally, Blanks will come to camp and show his bat is 100% healthy. He excited fans in 2009 by recording an .868 OPS as a 22 year-old in 172 PA. His numbers last year were anemic by comparison; .607 OPS in 120 PA.

I would suspect the club to hedge their bets a bit by having someone else around in case Blanks isn’t 100% or he struggles after a long layoff. The club does have another in-house candidate that could fill in short-term for the Padres.

Mike Baxter

Baxter was an unheralded minor leaguer coming into last year. He was originally a 4^th round pick back in 2005 and had slowly moved up the ladder. The left-handed hitter split the 2009 season between AA San Antonio and AAA Portland. He spent most of last year with Portland before a late-season call-up to the big club.

Baxter’s career minor league slash line is .278/.348/.424. Those are decent but not spectacular. Last year in Portland he turned himself into a viable prospect by hitting .301/.382/.517 in 552 PA. He also smacked a career high 18 HR; doubling his previous best.

The question is what he can do over a full season at an extreme pitcher’s park like Petco. If the Padres want to be thrifty at the 1B position and/or spend their limited resources addressing other positions then they just might try to get by with Blanks and Baxter holding down the position.

If they aren’t comfortable with that arrangement there are plenty of options on the free agent market. Naturally, they won’t sign anyone to a multi-year deal unless the player offers positional flexibility. The club has to figure one of Blanks, Baxter or the newly acquired Anthony Rizzo will be positioned to assume the role full-time by 2012.

Perhaps the best case scenario is the Padres bringing in a veteran on a minor league deal with a spring training invitation. That way there is a backup plan in the event Blanks and/or Baxter don’t impress.

Here are some players who are unlikely to attract much in the way of multi-year offers or big paychecks from other organizations. All of these players have 1B experience. Some offer positional flexibility, too. A few of these guys shouldn’t expect anything more than a minor league deal. I looked at their career numbers, the 2010 performances (both offensive and defensive) and how they’ve fared in the past at Petco Park. Granted, many of these guys have very limited career numbers at Petco so no definitive conclusions can be reached as a result.

Russell Branyan

Branyan spent parts of 2 seasons with the Friars (2006 & 2007) where he had some success hitting 13 HR and driving in 28 runs in 235 PA. His slash line was .232/.357/.474 during his stay in San Diego.

Most recently Branyan spent time in Seattle and Cleveland. Last year he recorded a line of .237/.323/.487 split between those 2 organizations.

Branyan has hit fairly well at Petco in his career recording an OPS of roughly .870 in 86 AB’s at Petco in 2006 and 2007. Branyan has only had 7 AB at Petco since.

Defensively, Branyan only saw 416.1 innings of duty in the field; all at 1B. In that limited time he had a very good 6.0 UZR/150 defensive rating. I wouldn’t expect him to be that good over a full season or even part of a season but he should at least be passable.

Nick Johnson

Johnson is an oft-injured, OBP machine who when healthy, can be a very effective offensive player. The Yankees were so high on him a year ago they were willing to let both Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon test free agency while they brought Johnson in as a LH hitting DH.

For his career, Johnson is a .270/.401/.443 hitter. As far as OBP goes, there are few better than Nick Johnson. For comparative purposes, the following superstar 1B have recorded lower career OBP marks than Johnson.

Mark Teixeira - .377

Adrian Gonzalez - .368

Miguel Cabrera - .388

Ryan Howard - .372

Prince Fielder - .385

Undoubtedly Johnson can help a club. The question is can he be on the field enough to help a club very much. He missed most of last season and all of 2007 with injury. He was healthy for most of 2008 and 2009 and was very productive.

Defensively, he was considered very good earlier in his career. Of late the injuries seem to have caught up. While a career 2.6 UZR/150, Johnson was a -6.7 last season.

Adam LaRoche

Of all of the players I am profiling, LaRoche is the most likely to get multi-year offers. Nonetheless I have included him here as he is coming off a deal with the Diamondbacks that guaranteed him just a single season and I have to believe it is again possible LaRoche has to settle for such again.

LaRoche is coming off a pretty good season when looking at traditional numbers alone. He batted .261 with 25 HR and 100 RBI last year in Arizona. His OBP was a below average .320 though.

For his career LaRoche is a .271/.339/.488 hitter. LaRoche is a notoriously slow starter and last year was a bit of a switch for the veteran as he had an OPS of .953 at the conclusion of April. LaRoche’s worst months were actually June (.698 OPS), July (.669) and September (.527).

As a member of the Diamondbacks, even if for only 1 season, LaRoche has a larger sample-size of PA at Petco. In 58 AB, LaRoche has a .906 OPS since 2008.

LaRoche is also just an average at best glove at 1B. His career UZR/150 rating is -2.6 while he posted a 4.8 UZR/150 in 2010.

Casey Kotchman

Kotchman is a great defensive 1B with a career 8.8 UZR/150 mark but is a notoriously poor offensive player as his career .717 OPS is far below what an average 1B produces. Last year he was even worse with a .616 OPS in 457 PA.

The 28 year-old offers no positional flexibility so if you sign him you do it for his glove at 1B. I envision him being brought in on a minor league deal, whether here or elsewhere, to compete in spring for a job.

Lyle Overbay

Overbay is an average to above average overall bat that doesn’t slug enough for a typical 1B. He’s a career .274/.358/.447 hitter that slumped some to a line of .243/.329/.447 last year with the Blue Jays.

Overbay does have some extraordinary offensive numbers at Petco recording a 1.115 OPS mark. Of course those numbers represent just 10 AB spread out over 5 years.

He is an average at best defensive 1B with a career 0.2 UZR/150 mark. Last year was right in line at 0.1.

Xavier Nady

At one point Nady was a highly thought of hitting prospect in the Padres system. He never fulfilled expectations in just more than 800 Padre PA and was traded to the New York Mets for OF Mike Cameron in 2005.

Since he has bounced around with a few other organizations and will likely be somewhere new in 2011; unless the Padres think he can fit in San Diego.

For his career Nady is a .277/.331/.445 bat. Last year was a disappointment as he recorded an OPS of just .660 with the Cubs. His career numbers at Petco are up-and-down to say the least. In 2007, when he had the most AB in any single season of the last 5, Nady had an OPS of 1.084 in 15 AB. In 12 AB since his OPS is just .266. As I said earlier, we can’t base any decision on such a small sample size of AB in Petco but I’d rather see success than failure in any player I’m looking to add.

Defensively Nady does offer that multi-position flexibility; well, sort of. He has been an atrocious OF although nearly passable in LF (-0.2 career UZR/150). At 1B, Nady is pretty good with a 3.9 UZR/150 for his career.

Ty Wigginton

The journeyman Wigginton is essentially a utility guy at this point. His versatility is probably his biggest selling point though I don’t mean he is good defensively at the positions he can play. Within the last 2 seasons, Wigginton has seen time at 1B, 2B, 3B and LF. He has recorded negative career UZR/150 marks at each of those positions other than LF.

Wigginton got off to a good start last season in Baltimore and was even undeservedly chosen to represent the Orioles at the mid-summer classic. At the end of May, Wigginton had an OPS of .900+ along with 13 HR and 32 RBI. His production tailed off considerably after that and he finished with a line of .248/.312/.215. He also ended the year with 22 HR and 76 runs driven in.

Wigginton is a local kid (Chula Vista High) and his ability to play multiple positions, albeit none particularly well, may be attractive to a team like the Padres who could use help at 1B and 2B. As I mentioned in last week’s piece on Chase Headley, the Friars might be best served to find a RH hitter to platoon with Chase against LH pitching. Wigginton does sport an okay .765 OPS against southpaws since 2008.

There may be other FA options or even trade targets the Friars could entertain if they feel so inclined. However, this is a pretty comprehensive list. None of the names I mentioned are particularly exciting. None could ever be expected to replace Gonzo’s production. The question the Padres will ultimately have to answer is do they stick with some combination of Blanks and Baxter to fill the void or do they look outside the organization.

Personally, if his price falls into the $1.5 - $2 million range, I would take a look at Nick Johnson. He is the only player listed above with even a single, proven superior offensive skill; the ability to get on base. Yes, his health is a huge question mark and he isn’t superlative defensively but its Gonzo’s offensive contributions that will be missed the most. I think it’s at least worth a phone call.

What say you Friar Hood community? Should we just stick with Blanks/Baxter or do we look outside the organization for our 2011 1B?