Join the congregation all season long and enjoy great deals on Padres tickets. Click here for our event schedule.
If you are a Padres fan and live outside of San Diego you are not alone! Check out our Friarhood Chapters, and find other Padres fans in your area.
| Why Harang Will Be Better Than Garland |
|
|
|
| Voice of the Fan - Glen's Gab | |||
| Written by Glen Miller | |||
| Sunday, 05 December 2010 15:17 | |||
|
Well, you can’t say the Friars have been boring this weekend. The story that San Diego had agreed in principal to send their slugging 1B to Boston in exchange for 4 minor leaguers, pending the Red Sox and Gonzalez agreeing to a contract extension, dominated the news in MLB. It was recently learned the two parties failed to agree on an extension and this deal is on the shelf for now. The Gonzo trade/no-trade wasn’t the only newsworthy story coming out of America’s Finest City this weekend, however. In fact, a website you may all have heard of broke the story that the Friars had reached agreement with free agent starter Aaron Harang on a contract for the 2011 season. When it comes to free agency the Padres can’t rely on being able to lure players to San Diego by offering untold riches. As a small to medium-sized market, San Diego can’t compete with the big boys when chasing free agents. What San Diego can offer free agents, at least some, is an extreme pitchers park in Petco. If you are a veteran pitcher coming off a rough season or two, San Diego can be an appealing destination with which to rebuild some value. Jon Garland was a guy that couldn’t get any lucrative contract offers last season. San Diego showed an interest in adding the veteran innings-eater and Garland jumped at the opportunity. All he did was record a career-best 3.47 ERA while tossing his customary 200 innings. Garland was able to parlay last year’s success into a nice little deal with the rival Dodgers. His home/road splits were very telling though. Garland’s home ERA was 3.00 while on the road he pitched to a tune of a 4.01 ERA, so clearly pitching in San Diego helped his numbers. Garland also recorded an abnormally low .267 BABIP. That number is 21 points lower than his career average and 35 lower than the league average. Given Garland ranked in the middle of the pack in GB/FB rate (1.36) it would seem he benefitted mostly from one of the best defenses in MLB last year (3rd in team UZR/150 with a 6.0) and not so much because of the cavernous OF dimensions of Petco. This year’s edition of a veteran needing to reestablish himself is Aaron Harang. Harang was one of the NL’s better pitchers in 2006 and 2007. In those 2 seasons he won a combined 32 contests and recorded FIP numbers of 3.68 and 3.71 while pitching mostly in a hitter’s park. Harang has battled through various injuries in the last 3 seasons (strained forearm in 2008, appendectomy in 2009 and a back injury in 2010). During that time his W-L record is just 18 – 37 and his year-by-year FIP numbers were 4.79, 4.14 and 4.60; numbers that probably deserved better W-L records. Harang now moves to a spacious home park where the extreme fly ball pitcher (0.90 GB/FB rate) should benefit more than Garland did as a result. Harang also saw his K/BB rate dip some last season dropping to 2.16 from the 3.30 he recorded in 2009. His BB/9 rose nearly 7/10 of a point too and is the biggest culprit in his elevated 2010 WHIP (1.59 in 2010, 1.41 in 2009). I have to guess his 2011 numbers will end up closer to his career norm rather than his 2010 performance. We saw how pitching in Petco and in front of a great defense helped Jon Garland’s BABIP numbers in 2010. Harang saw his reach a career high in 2010 at .346. If he can achieve a similar improvement as Garland did then Harang should also see an improvement in his 2011 performance. Last year, the Friars paid Garland $4.7 million plus a $300,000 buyout as a result of Garland declining his side of a mutual option. The total payout for the one season of Garland was $5 million. The reported price tag for Aaron Harang for the 2011 season is $3 million. Call me an optimist but I would have predicted Harang having a better year, pending good health, than Garland just because his peripheral numbers should improve more because of his move to Petco Park. Harang’s elevated BABIP, his off K/BB rate and his fly ball tendencies all lend credence to the probability Harang is due for a bounce back year, big time. Even better is the fact that the Padres should receive better play for less money than what Garland gave them last year. This is a win-win for both parties. I wouldn’t exactly predict a Cy Young nomination or an all-star selection but I think 12+ wins and a sub 3.50 ERA is a good possibility and given this club’s difficulties scoring that’s not too shabby.
|