Anyone who has followed baseball, even in a passing fashion, for any time at all knows scouting, drafting and player development are practices rather than science. History is littered with former top draft picks who for one reason or another, never panned out as anticipated. The Padres have had their fair share of draft pick misses; Matt Bush for example, comes to the top of my mind. Last year, it seemed as if the name of Tim Stauffer might join that less than distinguished list of drafting/development failures.

Stauffer was the Friars first choice, 4^th overall, in the 2003 draft out of the University of Richmond. He was drafted on the heels of a tremendous 2003 college season for the Spiders in which he finished with a 9 – 5 W-L record, an ERA of 1.97 ERA, and a K/BB ratio of 146/19 in 114 IP. Problems soon surfaced after a post-draft physical revealed a shoulder problem that would ultimately cost Stauffer nearly $2 million from his signing bonus.

His shoulder healed fine with rest and Stauffer would begin his professional career in 2004 with high single-A Lake Elsinore of the California League. Stauffer would dominate through 3 levels of the minors and finished by making 14 starts for AAA Portland. It seemed his path to big league success was set.

Stauffer made his major league debut in 2005 totaling 15 appearances, including 14 starts. He finished with a 3-6 record with an ERA of 5.33.

He would bounce back-and-forth between San Diego and Portland the next couple of years without distinguishing himself. Injuries, including a 60 day stint on the DL in 2008, didn’t help his cause. It seemed as if a once promising career had stalled.

He did put his name back on the Padres map after posting a 3.58 ERA in 73 innings with the big club as a starter in 2009.

Nevertheless, Stauffer came to camp last spring knowing he was in a battle for a job. One thing in his favor was that he was out of minor league options; meaning he couldn’t be sent down to the minors without passing through waivers first. Friar management knew there were too many clubs looking for pitching for Stauffer not to be claimed.

Stauffer pitched well enough in the spring to earn a spot and prevent the Padres from having to try to sneak him through waivers. There was one hitch; despite making all but 1 of his previous big league appearances as a starting pitcher, Stauffer made the club as a reliever. He didn’t disappoint in his new role.

Stauffer was lights out coming out of the bullpen. He made 25 appearances out of the Friar pen and pitched to a tune of a 1.87 ERA, 1.108 WHIP and 7.9 K/9. His K/BB rate was nearly 3:1 and he held opposing batters to a .622 OPS.

With the Padres fighting for their playoff lives into September and starter Wade LeBlanc faltering, Stauffer was given another chance in the rotation. Surprisingly, as good as he had been out of the pen, he was even better as a starter. In 7 starts and 39.1 IP, Stauffer posted a 1.83 ERA and a WHIP of 1.042. His K/9 rate did drop (not unusual for a reliever converting back to starter) from 7.9 K/9 to 5.3 K/9.

Despite Stauffer’s stellar pitching down the stretch, the Friars failed to qualify for the postseason. Nonetheless, Stauffer enters spring training all but guaranteed a spot in the rotation behind Mat Latos, Aaron Harang and Clayton Richard. The patience the club exhibited in their former top pick was rewarded. The question now is whether last year was an aberration or has Stauffer finally begun to realize the potential that once made him the 4^th player chosen in the country.

We’ll obviously have to wait for the regular season to start before we know the answer to that for sure but we can make an educated guess. Statistical analysis has shown us that a pitcher can only directly influence one of three outcomes during his matchup with an opposing hitter; strike outs, walks and HR allowed. Comparing Stauffer’s 2010 numbers in those categories to his prior major and minor league stats can help give us an idea whether last year's performance is sustainable or not.

Here are some of Stauffer’s numbers as a starter throughout his big league and minor league career and those same stats from a year ago.

HR/9

Minor League (total): 0.90

Major League (total): 0.93

2010 Major League: 0.33

K/9 Rate

Minor League (total): 6.0

Major League (total): 5.7

2010 Major League: 5.3

K/BB Rate

Minor League (total): 2.7

Major League (total): 1.62

2010 Major League: 2.09

Last season’s HR/9 rate improved drastically from both his career major and minor league marks. This suggests his 2010 rate isn’t sustainable and a likely increase in 2011 should be expected. Pitching at Petco is still a tremendous benefit but Stauffer’s HR/FB rate of 4.2% was significantly better than the cumulative rate of 9.9% posted by all Padres starters.

His K/9 rate was moderately lower than his career levels and is significantly lower than the ML average of 7.13. With more balls put in play the chance opposing batters get more hits rises. Stauffer’s BABIP was a solid .248 but it wasn’t terribly better than the league norm of .253. BABIP can fluctuate wildly for pitchers from year-to-year but there’s no reason to believe Stauffer can’t post a similar rate next year.

Perhaps the key to Stauffer’s improvement last year, aside from his unsustainable HR/9 rate, was his K/BB rate. While his K/9 rate dropped, his K/BB rate improved from a career level of 1.62 to 2.09 last year. Clearly since his K/9 rate dropped, so did his BB/9 rate. Control, minimizing walks, is critical to the success of Stauffer.

Stauffer was a valuable pitcher for the Friars a year ago. He revived a career which appeared doomed to journeymen status and now looks to be a sleeper starter in the NL. He surely won’t duplicate all of last year’s peripheral numbers over the course of a full season but I see nothing in the stats that would indicate he can’t be a good, middle of the rotation type; and that ain’t bad even for a former 4^th overall draft pick.