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Sac Bunt
The Basement Tapes: Week 2 PDF Print E-mail
Voice of the Fan - Sac Bunt
Written by Ray Lankford   
Monday, 11 April 2011 12:59

Welcome to the new weekly edition of The Basement Tapes. Let's get started before this becomes a monthly thing.

 

Play of the Series: Giants

 

Headley's bases loaded walk, Tuesday, third inning (+12.6 WE)

 

Ah, the bases loaded walk. What a dubious achievement. Driving in a run without doing anything. Of course, you and I know that drawing a walk is a bit more than doing nothing, but it does seems like something of an apt metaphor for the Padres offense. Less is more, or something like that.

 

Anyway, in front of a sell out crowd on Opening Day, the team got off to slow start, allowing the Giants score to first on an RBI groundout by Huff. In the third, the Padres tied the game, then took the lead on Headley's walk. Denorfia would be awarded a single (and not an error) on the next play to pad the lead and the team never looked back.

 

Misplay of the Series: Giants

 

Posey's home run, Wednesday, first inning (+15.4 WE)

 

Posey's first inning homer was the filling of what turned out to be a rather disgusting cake on Wednesday afternoon. In that game, Posey's home run was one part (one quarter, to be exact) of San Francisco's team cycle, which was completed one batter later when Pablo Sandoval lined a single to left. By the end of the inning, the Giants had built themselves a three point lead, which would last them the rest of the game.

 

To say that Stauffer had a bad home debut would be an understatement. Fresh off of his impressive season debut on Opening Day, Stauffer was pulled in the fifth inning, leaving a 6.74 FIP for the game behind. He'll have to do better than that (OBVIOUSLY) (duh) if he's going to help the Padres win his next start, against a better Reds offensive.

 

Play of the Series: Dodgers

 

Hundley's two-run home run, Sunday, sixth inning (+18.0 WE)

 

Did you know that Hundley and his 263 wRC+ is second best in the National League (he's behind only Miguel Montero)? Better yet, he's 107 points ahead of the second best Padre, Cameron Maybin. Actually, that's probably a bad thing, but it takes nothing away from what Hundley's done. Sample size, on the other hand, is something else altogether, but I'll focus.

 

On Sunday, with the Padres already up two to one, thanks to an earlier home run from Ryan Ludwick, Hundley came to the plate with the aforementioned Ludwick on first base. Hundley then took an Ely offering into the Padres bullpen for his second home run of the season, putting the Padres up four to one and on cruise control.

 

Misplay of the Series: Dodgers

 

Gwynn's go-ahead single, Friday/Saturday, eleventh inning (+38.2 WE)

 

They say that revenge is a dish best served cold. Tony Gwynn, Jr. has never heard that song. In his first game back in San Diego, under the watchful eye of his father's statue, AJ (as I'll always know him) delivered a big blow against his old team, the biggest of his career in fact.

 

On Saturday afternoon, following a rain delay and almost a full 24 hours after the first pitch was thrown, Gwynn roped a single to right, bringing in Juan Uribe for what would be the game-winning run. He picked up right where he left off a couple of hours later, going two for five in Saturday's scheduled game. He also patroled the outfield with the grace we knew and loved here in San Diego. Or, at least, we loved it before he started doing it in Dodger blue.

 

MVPadre of the Week: Nick Hundley, C (+0.216 WPA)

 

I'll have what Hundley's having, amiright? And send some to the rest of the team. Put it on my tab.

 

LVPadre of the Week: Pat Neshek, RP (-0.365 WPA)

 

Neshek saw action in three games this week, throwing 0.2 innings against the Giants and 1.2 against L.A. He struck out four, only walking two, and he gave up no home runs. In a vacuum, he did pretty good. In reality, however, he was on the wrong side of AJ's comeback tour. In the eleventh inning on Saturday afternoon, Neshek came in with one out and runners on first second, and he immediately struck out Rod Barajas for the second out. Then AJ lined his single to right, driving in one, with Neshek picking up another run for the Dodgers with a wild pitch. He would go on to get out of the jam, with runners still on the corners, but the damage was done.

 

Neshek's been a solid pickup for the team and he's tied, with Gregerson, for the pen lead in appearances. While LVPadre honors are nothing to aspire too, don't give up on Neshek yet. Just because he looks like Edward Mujica doesn't mean he is. Probably.

 

This week, the Padres face Cincinnati (6-3) at home and Houston (2-7) on the road. If you don't mind, I'm going to show some self-control and refrain from analyzing these two teams. I'll just say that one team is pretty good and one team is not very good at all, but I'll let you figure out which one's which.

 

GLOSSARY

 

In lieu of writing a proper glossary, I'm going to provide links to more complete explanations of what's what. It's just easier this way. Teach a man to fish and what have you.

 

WE (win expectancy): http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/we/

 

WPA (win probability added): http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/wpa/

 

wRC+ (weighted runs created): http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wrc/

 

FIP (fielding independent pitching):  http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/fip/

 
The Basement Tapes: SD@STL PDF Print E-mail
Voice of the Fan - Sac Bunt
Written by Ray Lankford   
Monday, 04 April 2011 15:31

Welcome to the first edition of what will hopefully be our biweekly contribution to the Friarhood: the Basement Tapes. The plan goes like this: at the end of every series, we'll go through the numbers and, as objectively as we can, break down the key plays and players. And since we know there are more human beings out there reading this than calculators, we'll try to provide a little bit of how the Padres got to wherever it is they are now.

 

Got it? Yeah, I didn't think so, but keep reading. It all make sense.

 

MVPadre of the Week: Cameron Maybin, CF (+0.66 WPA)

 

Of all the new Padres, and there are a lot of them, none came with as much excitement, or question marks, as Maybin. A former top prospect for the Tigers and Marlins, Maybin found his way to his third team, us, after failing to live up to the hype in Florida. But with all the tools in place, it's hoped that Maybin will finally be able to piece it all together here in San Diego and on Thursday, he gave some hope to that hope.

 

Maybin started off slow, going 0-for his first three at-bats. Then he came up in the ninth inning, with two outs and the Padres down a run, and drove the first pitch he saw from Ryan Franklin up and out to centerfield. The Padres would go on to win that game with more help from Mr. Maybin, but I may have said too much already.

 

While he didn't have quite the same luck in the last two games of the series, Maybin still ended the week with a 140 wRC+ and some nice defensive plays under his belt. Not a bad start.

 
Is hitting Hudson third a mistake for the Padres? PDF Print E-mail
Voice of the Fan - Sac Bunt
Written by Ray Lankford   
Tuesday, 22 March 2011 11:16

HudsonNo. But allow me to rebury the lede.

 

Last season, the Padres received an .854 OPS from the third spot in the order. It was the team's most productive spot, and it was good for a 147 tOPS+*. Adrian Gonzalez did most of the heavy lifting, picking up 586 plate appearances hitting third and contributing a .898 OPS. He hit 27 home runs there, which is no small feat for a player playing in PETCO, but now Adrian's a Red Sox and a hole has opened in what is traditionally known as the most important spot in the lineup. To fill it, Bud Black recently announced that Orlando Hudson is looking like the man going into the season.

 

*tOPS+, in this case, refers to the OPS weighed against the rest of the team. If you average out all nine spots, you'd get an average of 100.

 
Padres add Cantu's can-do bat to the bench PDF Print E-mail
Voice of the Fan - Sac Bunt
Written by Ray Lankford   
Tuesday, 25 January 2011 12:51

A couple of weeks after saying that the Padres are "pretty much done," Jed Hoyer has signed Jorge Cantu to a one year deal worth $850 thousand. The first-and-third baseman will help solidify the bench and provide right-handed relief for Chase Headley and Brad Hawpe.


Like so many of Jed's other acquisitions this winter, Cantu had a down 2010. In his prior two seasons for the Florida Marlins, Cantu had a 106 wRC+ with 45 home runs and +4.0 wins. Then, in 2010, his SLG dipped below .400 and his OBP threatened to do the same with .300. There's no clear cut culprit for why Cantu fell like he did, but it's worth noting that Cantu's K% rose over 20% for the first time since 2007.

 

Over the course of his seven year career, Cantu's had four years with a K% over 20%. In those four years, his total IsoP is .143. In the other three, his total IsoP is .191. The better contact Cantu makes, the better power he's shown so hopefully the Padres will be able to keep him within himself. Coming off the bench in high WPA situations, which Cantu will likely do a lot of, will make it a challenge. Fortunately, there should still be ample opportunity for Cantu to get three or four at-bats a game.

 
Hoyer garbage picks catching, relief help PDF Print E-mail
Voice of the Fan - Sac Bunt
Written by Ray Lankford   
Friday, 14 January 2011 09:22

QuallsEarlier this week, Jed Hoyer and the Padres signed Jason Bartlett to a two year deal worth a guaranteed $11 million, with a club option for 2013. This is noteworthy for two reasons: 1. the team has locked up its middle infield through next season, which gives Everth Cabrera time to figure things out in Triple-A, and 2. they've shown that they're not afraid to hand out fair contracts. Bartlett and Hudson will combine to make $8 million in 2011, more than double what Will Venable, Chase Headley, Nick Hundley, and Cameron Maybin will combine to make. Any fears that Jed Hoyer will continue the previous regime's dumpster diving ways can be put to rest.

 
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