With Adrian Gonzalez in Boston, Kyle Blanks recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Anthony Rizzo destined for Triple-A, the Padres found themselves this offseason with a hole at first base for the first time since the mid-90s. Enter Brad Hawpe. The team signed the former Rockie, former right fielder to a one year deal worth a guaranteed $3 million. 

Hawpe, 31, is coming off of a season in which he posted his lowest wRC+ (100) since 2005. Over the course of his career, he has posted a better wRC+ of 117 but no discussion on Hawpe can be taken serious without addressing the Coors effect.

As we touched on in our introductory article, park factors is a measure of the effect a stadium has on offensive production. An average stadium, one that plays neutral to hitting and pitching, will have a park factor of 100. Coors Field, where Hawpe played the first six and a half years of his career, has a park factor of 115. PETCO, his new home, 91. Hawpe will be moving from the best hitter's park in baseball to the worst but while he had success at Coors (.376 wOBA), Hawpe was no slouch on the road, amassing a career road wOBA of .359. His power wasn't as great (.224 IsoP home vs. .197 road), and it will take a hit moving to PETCO, but his BB/K rate was eerily similar (0.56 home vs. 0.55 road) and he should be able to remain a productive hitter.

It should also be noted that PETCO doesn't just hurt hitters but that it especially hurts left-handed hitters. The home run park factor at PETCO, or how easy it is to hit a home run in San Diego, for left-handed batters is 59 over the past three seasons. One secret of Adrian's success, along with ridiculous amounts of talent, is his ability to use the entire park. In 2010, Adrian hit 31 home runs: 12 to right field, six to center, and 13 to left. Hawpe has done a similar job of using the entire field over the course of his career, hitting 31 of his 95 career home runs to left and 41 to center. By avoiding PETCO's cavernous right field, Hawpe should fare a bit better than his left-handed brethren. 

Despite the changing variables, we have a good idea of the hitter Hawpe could be which is reassuring because we have no idea what to expect defensively. After playing first base collegiately at LSU, Hawpe found himself behind Todd Helton and his nine year contract so, like Blanks, Hawpe made the move to the outfield. And he was awful there. Since 2004, Hawpe's rookie year, his -87.6 UZR was the second worst in the league behind Manny Ramirez. It's yet to be seen what the team thinks of his "versatility" but with Rizzo starting the year in Triple-A, it wouldn't be surprising to see Hawpe change mitts at some point this year. Let's just hope it doesn't come to that.

It's not fair to expect Hawpe to truly replace Adrian. His skill set projects well for PETCO and he'll (ideally) fit nicely into the middle of the order but anything more than twenty home runs will be icing on the cake. If he reverts back to the Hawpe of old and is even average defensively, he could be a 3.5 win player. Not quite the 5+ wins we've come to expect from first base but along with the upgrades up the middle, Hawpe should be another step in the right direction for the 2011 Padres.

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