The Padres have Chase Headley, who has established himself at third base, his natural position, since being moved back from left field. He's the best hitter on the Padres and, despite not being the ideal power producer for third base, is still a very valuable piece at the hot corner.  Chase Headley has some of the most dramatic HOME/ROAD splits you will see in the game. While Headley is a (.303/.364/.441) hitter on the road, he sports a staggering disparity at home batting (.229/.319/.336). When you bat .74 points lower at your home park than on the road, you're not suited for that park, or the philosophy of trying to "play Petco Park into an advantage.” While everyone is going to be hindered by Petco, Headley's stats for an everyday fixture are among the most dramatic.  I don't necessarily think the Padres need a power bat at third base, but I do think they need a better run producer and someone who fits Petco Park's philosophy.

Headley has admittedly altered his approach for Petco, because its extremities and the way it plays, going against most basic hitting philosophies.  A switch hitter, Headley faces more right-handed pitching and going to have the majority of his at-bats left-handed. Being a left-handed hitter (or in Headley's case batting more often from the left side) is where production is much more likely to get swallowed by Petco's spacious confines, accompanied with the extreme atmospheric conditions that play a bigger role in right field and right-center field.  Headley has made comments to Tim Sullivan of signonsandiego.com during the year such as, “I don’t care who you bring into this ballpark, it’s not going to be an offensive club.”

While it would be hard to deal one of your best hitters, if not the best, it might be the time given the right circumstances — there has been reported interest in Headley. Given the weak free agent market while with many teams are looking for an upgrade, it's very possible we could see a move this off-season, especially given the Padres’ immediate internal options. According to Troy Renck of The Denver Post, the Rockies tried to acquire Headley last summer, but the Padres weren't interested in moving him. The Padres are "reluctant" to move Headley, but I think they should if they are "overwhelmed.” If a team offers a package or top prospect, giving the Padres a needed position player hopefully better suited to Petco Park than Headley is, I say pull the trigger.

The Padres have several top prospects at third base waiting in the wings, two of whom made their debuts last year due to injuries to the starting roster.  Logan Forsythe, who had to undergo knee surgery for the second time, looked very solid defensively during his time at third base. Logan seemed to impress management with his gung-ho, old school mentality. While Forsythe's bat probably profiles better at second than third, I could still see him being a viable option during a transition year.  While his bat may not profile as a heavy hitter like Headley, he's right handed so he may not be hindered as much at home, and develop more power like many prospects do over time.  If the Padres decided to move Headley, Forsythe could be the first option.

That brings me to James Darnell, another top prospect that made his debut last year. He didn't play much, but started to show impressive strides last year before also suffering an injury diving for a ball, dislocating his non-throwing arm.  Darnell, a natural third baseman, has some questions regarding his defense and was asked specifically by now-former GM Jed Hoyer to start taking reps in the

outfield to become more versatile. Darnell’s bat could fit anywhere — power that could profile very well at third base and is also right-handed like Forsythe.  I would be fine with seeing Darnell thrown out there everyday competing with Forsythe if Headley was traded.

I believe the third and final prospect at third base is Jedd Gyorko, who had a fantastic year between high A+ Lake Elsinore and AA-San Antonio batting (.333/.400/.552) with an unbelievable 47 doubles, along with two triples, 25 homers, and 114 RBIs. He was also the batting leader in the Arizona Fall League with a destroying line hitting (.437/.500/.704) with four doubles, five HRs and 22 RBIs. Gyorko kind of reminds me of a Dan Uggla-type at third base with a lower homerun ceiling but eventually being a better pure hitter.  Gyorko will start the season in AA and looks to be on the fast track in the organization. While his defense may not be on par with Headley's, he should profile much better as a right-handed batter in Petco, and be a better run producer. Gyorko's realistic ETA is probably 2013.

With third base prospects in the system now, maybe it's time to sell high on Headley, especially when the market for third baseman is so bleak. The consensus seems to be the Padres will receive good value for Headley if he were moved despite his low power totals — because of the market, defense and what he does away from Petco Park.  If the Padres do trade Headley, we would probably see an immediate drop off in production (depending on how our internal options fare) but with a chance of a long-term gain by bringing in a player who can fit the philosophy better than Headley does in Petco Park.