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| The 2011 Padres |
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| Voice of the Fan - Visitors Pass | |||
| Written by Brian Koke | |||
| Monday, 26 April 2010 16:56 | |||
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Is it too early to think about what the Padres are going to look like next year? The Padres will likely decline Chris Young's option of $8.5M. Adrian Gonzalez's $5.5M club option will probably be picked up, but will he be here opening day 2011? Jon Garland and Yorvit Torrealba have mutual options. It’s too early to tell what the chances of them coming back are. Mutual options are rarely picked up by both the team and player. Kevin Correia, David Eckstein, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Matt Stairs are all free agents. Tony Gwynn Jr., Edward Mujica, Tim Stauffer, Mike Adams, Heath Bell and Scott Hairston are eligible for arbitration. As first time arbitration eligible players Gwynn, Mujica, and Stauffer won’t be getting a significant increase. Adams should get bumped up to the $2-3 million range and Three fifths of our rotation may hit the free agent market. Mat Latos and Clayton Richard are most likely a lock for next year’s rotation. Wade LeBlanc also looks like a good bet to earn a spot. The other two spots in the rotation will likely be a battle between Simon Castro, Tim Stauffer, Sean Gallagher, Cesar Ramos, Aaron Poreda, Cesar Carillo, and Cory Luebke. I’m not sure if the Padres would go into the season without a veteran in the rotation, but they have plenty of options. Center field may be our biggest weakness. Gwynn Jr. and Hairston are not cutting it. If Hairston doesn’t have a good year I think he will be non-tendered this offseason. He will be entering his third year of arbitration and may not be worth the cost. Will Luis Durango or Aaron Cunningham be ready to take over in center field? Cunningham is probably better suited for a corner outfield position. Second base is a question mark. Logan Forsythe, Matt Antonelli, or Lance Zawadzki could be ready by next year. The team could look something like this before free agent signings and barring trades: 1B Adrian Gonzalez $5.5M Rotation: Bullpen: That’s roughly $31 million with 4 open spots for the bench which includes the other 15 players on the 40 man roster. That leaves at least $9 million to spend on the 4 bench spots or upgrade SP/2B/CF. They also could trade Adrian Gonzalez and or Heath Bell which could bring the payroll down to around $20 million depending on who they get in return. All that is assuming the payroll will stay the same at around $40 million. Jeff Moorad has said that he plans to raise payroll gradually back to the $70+ million range. So what does that mean for 2011? Hopefully Moorad will be able to set the payroll to at least the $50 million range for 2011. That would give the Padres about $20 million to spend in the offseason or 30 million to spend if they trade Gonzo and We have some young guys that could be ready to fill most of the spots that will be left vacant. The free agent market doesn’t look very good for our positions of need. The Padres could use some of that money to lock up some of our young players like Blanks, Venable, and Latos. If we trade Gonzo at the deadline I would love to get Ellsbury, Buchholz, and a lesser prospect. I know that Ellsbury only has 3 years of service time left and I know that he is a Scott Boras’ client. The Padres can't afford to pay Gonzo $15-20 million for several years, but could they pay Ellsbury $5-10 for the next three years? I don't see why not. We could get two ready potential impact players with a combined 7 years of service time for Gonzo who the Padres only have 2 years of control over. This solves our CF and SP problems. Then, we could let the prospects fight it out for 2B and LF or sign a free agent. It could look something like this: CF Ellsbury Rotation: Buchholz That team would be easily affordable for the foreseeable future. What do you think the Padres should do?
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Comments
I think Beckham would be very interesting, I also wouldn't mind a plethora of hard throwing pitching prospects to load our farm even more. One thing is for certain, I would much rather quality in ANY deal with Adrian than quantity. I think no matter what team we deal with (if any) Jed the "Jedi" Hoyer will make a solid trade and acquire a "kings ransom" from ANY team trying to get Adrian.
There aren't too many teams with a plethora (LOL) of quality pitching prospects. The Tigers are one, but the top 2 pitchers have both had arm issues this season.
C Hundley/FA vet
1B Blanks
2B Antonelli
SS Cabrera
3B Headley
LF Denorfia/Cunningham
CF S. Hairston/Gwynn
RF Venable
SP1 Young
SP2 Corriea
SP3 Richard
SP4 Stauffer
SP5 LeBlanc
CL Wood
(Latos in 'pen)
I guess its fun as an academic exercise...but so much can happen and the variables are endless;
I think its rather pointless.
Let's see how 2010 unfolds...
Maybe re access the situation around the all star break?
By mid July, I think we will have a good read on the 2010 Padres...and possible changes for the remaining of this year and years to come.
I like the possibilities of what they'll look like next season because finally we have better options. That should be the team motto for next season, We Have Options!
I disagree about Hundley. I don't think he's going to be a star, but I think he is going to be at the very least a major league average starting catcher. As of right now, he has been above average on both sides of the ball. The problem is that their are few catching prospects and even fewer on teams that may have interest in Gonzo.
I like the Buccholz/Ellsbury thing because it works perfectly with Hoyer's stradegy to build around the park. We'd get a dynamic leadoff hitter (which has been a major weakness this season) and a power starter with ace potential. The team would be much more athletic and the outfield defense would be outstanding.
Honestly, I do not think that is enough for AG and as long as the Sox continue to struggle the more they will be willing to give for him.
As much as I would like to see Bell moved for Wilson Ramos. I'm not sure that the Twins will be in desperate needs for a Closer. Teams will need a closer and will pay for bell though.
In regards to AG, Buster Olney stated he felt that Padres could not get actual value for him because he's just that good. I believe that to be true. I would be looking at a package of 4 or 5 prospects.
Jed needs to sell AG on his road numbers and just double them. This is not a 40/100 guy, this is a 50/125 guy. In any other park with a team surrounding him and a gold glove, he's as good as it gets.
Actually, all of this looks foreign to me right now...
Do you think Venable can play center field?
He may not be the best guy for the top of the rotation. You wouldn't really know who would be there in that rotation until you see how all those players do this year.
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