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Peavy trade already a steal? PDF Print E-mail
Voice of the Fan - Visitors Pass
Written by Mickey Koke   
Wednesday, 05 May 2010 15:44
Sharing is Caring

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Here's looking back on the Jake Peavy "haul." So far this year, Peavy is off to a horrendous start with the White Sox.  While he only allowed 4 hits last night, Jake was 0-2 with a 7.85 ERA in 5 starts in April and went winless in a "full" month for the first time since June of 2006 (0-3, 5.28 ERA). He lowered his ERA to 6.31 after last night's start against the Royals.

Peavy went to the White Sox in a "blockbuster trade" that sent Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell and Dexter Carter to the Padres while Jake Peavy was still on the DL.

Peavy's agent, "Frankly I am flabbergasted that the White Sox would want to make this deal with him in his physical condition," Axelrod said.

Here's Ken Rosenthal: "At a time when teams protect young pitchers as if they are precious miniatures, Williams traded four PRIZED arms for Peavy, who has not pitched since June 8 and, for all anyone knows, might not pitch again this season.

FOX SPORTS winners and losers have the Padres as winners:

"Winner: Padres Persistence pays. Two months earlier, Jake Peavy turned down a similar trade to the ChiSox. But he thought better of it, and the Padres did way better than they could've dreamed of doing next year with Peavy still in tow. The Pads got four pitchers, including lefty Clayton Richard (pictured), who is already rotation-ready. Don't sleep on the others, either. Aaron Poreda, another lefty, had a 2.72 ERA between Triple-A and Double-A. It's surely hard for Padres fans to say goodbye to Peavy, but the future looks a bit brighter thanks to this deal."

Richard was drafted in '05 and spent the second half of the year in the minors. It's not as if Richard was getting lit up in the minors, either; he was steadily rising while advancing towards the show.

Richard was 5-2 last year after coming over in the Peavy deal. 4 of those wins were at Petco Park as he did not lose a game at home. In 64 innings he posted a 4.08 ERA in 12 starts and an impressive .244 BAA with the Padres.

Richard has a two and four seam fast-ball that he compliments with a slider, change up and a newly implemented cutter. Richard's fast ball is best utilized working down in the zone and can induce many ground balls. He has touched 96 and often touched 95 both last year and this year. However, he is usually around 91-93 with a nice downward plain.

Richard has already been on the short end of run support, and has had problems getting out of the 6th inning. However through 5 games, Richard has kept the Padres in ball games and looked very impressive. Richard has a 3.00 ERA 1-2 so far this year. A lefty that throws 92-95 with a downward plain inducing ground balls - I'll take that!

Additionally, the Padres "prize" in the deal was the arm of the hard throwing Aaron Poreda. He was rated the #1 prospect in the White Sox entire system in 2008 by Baseball America. In the 2009 Baseball America Top Prospects list, Poreda dropped to the #3 on the the White Sox overall behind 2008 #1 draft pick SS Gordon Beckham and Cuban signee 3B Dayan Viciedo, but still was listed as the #63 prospect overall. Aaron certainly did not drop because of performance, but a credit to the White Sox depth.

According to MinorLeagueBaseball.com, Aaron Poreda has a plus-plus fastball that sits comfortably at 95-96 mph and sinks and runs, while still catching the plate for strikes. They list his slider and changeup as fair, but in need of plenty of work. (It looks like this report is from 2007, so perhaps his other pitches have improved since then to better complement his obviously wicked fastball).

Poreda struggled In AAA last year with his command, something that was out of the ordinary for him. He had never had any control issues and had conceded that he was not himself and felt some added pressure. The Padres this spring training sent Poreda to AA to hone is craft and is probably now more suited for the back end of the bullpen.

An invite to big league camp, Poreda was part of the team's final round of cuts on March 15. Still a work in progress, the ceiling remains very high for Poreda with his outstanding heater in AA-San Antonio. A second-round draft pick in 2007, Poreda has struggled with command since acquired. His fastball has topped out at 99 mph on the radar gun and he is an intimidating presence at 6-foot-6, 240-pounds while throwing gas, but he walked 37 batters in 32 2/3 innings at Portland, five more in 2 1/3 innings with the Padres in '09 and another seven in 2 1/3 innings this spring. The Padres take the "lets not rush the prospect mentality" by directing him back to AA.

Poreda has logged a very impressive line of 1.50 ERA in 12.0 innings pitched not allowing any HR's striking out 7 but walking 11 in 9 games. Something he will have to continue to work on with the Double-A San Antonio Missions in 2010.

The other player in the trade that to me is a bit under the radar is 6-foot-8, 255-pound reliever Adam Russell. Russell had a 3.65 ERA in 15 games with the Padres last season and an impressive 2.45 ERA in Spring Training line en route to securing one of the final spots in the bullpen.

So far so good in Russell's first two appearances to start the year. In his 3.1 innings of work he has not surrendered a hit and walked just one batter. He was sent back to Portland when the Padres re-called Joe Thatcher who had been on the DL.

The other pitcher acquired for Peavy - Dexter Carter - started this season in the minor leagues in Single-A Fort Wayne. When the Padres acquired Carter last season, he was leading the Class-A South Atlantic League in strikeouts. In fact, at one point was leading ALL of the minor leagues in K's! He was 6-1 with a 2.23 ERA.

The right hander has a fastball that averages 90-mph but touching the mid 90's. A work in progress change-up that is much improved and a respectable curve-ball, but scouts say, Carter needs to be more consistent with his mechanics and arm angle.

Carter with the Single-A Fort Wayne is 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA in 25.0 innings but still almost averaging a K an inning with 23 tallied thus far.

While the White Sox know what they received in former CY winner in Jake Peavy, it may be a matter of years before we see how Poreda, coined as the "prize in the deal," part plays out. This year, however, the Pads are getting pitchers in Richard and Russell who are already paying dividends for their first place team. Richard looks as if he plays with a load of confidence on the mound, often laughing or smiling. You have to respect a player that is having fun, working quickly, and pitching very well. As for Russell, this guy has legit stuff. Russell who looks like he could be a future closer and possibly even surpassing Adams and Gregerson. Adam throws primarily a two seam fast ball from 95 touching 96 with absolutely filthy movement! A four seamer that is much straighter but can dial it up to 97-98. Russell compliments his two fast-balls with a change up and a slider which are both respectable allowing him to throw them at anytime during an at bat regardless of the count. He is definitely a force on the mound with closer mentality and more importantly, STUFF!

Taking Jake's salary off the books was essential for the Padres for many reasons. However as we stand today it looks as if KT, the "gun slinger" pulled the trigger on a very good deal despite Peavy being on the DL. Only time will fully tell the story but money aside, I still think we are looking at MANY good years from not only Richard, but Russell and perhaps Poreda and Carter.

My final prognoses: the Padres hosed the White Sox and Kenny Williams.

 

Comments  

 
+1 # SD Steve 2010-05-06 00:11
Great Job Mick! Very informative. Although I do miss Jake, considering the move was more of a salary dump than anything else, it is great to see the Padres were able to get some value for the former CY Young Winner.
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+2 # mickeykoke 2010-05-06 06:10
I miss Jake as well, he was and still is my favorite pitcher to WATCH. However you can't deny obvious talent. Its apparent and it starts with Richard and like you said in so many words, it was anything from JUST a salary dump.
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+2 # briankoke 2010-05-06 13:04
It really looks like we got some good pitchers. Richard is a solid starter and already producing better than Peavy. Russell is going to be a valuable reliever. Poreda and Carter have a shot at being starters and should at the very least be valuable in the bullpen. Salary dump or not, we got good value.
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# 2010-05-06 13:38
I officially apologize to the Padres for initially being pissed about the trade.
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+1 # SD Steve 2010-05-07 11:50
We were all pissed! Jake will bounce back and have a solid year for the Sox, but it is nice to see that the Padres were able to get some guys to plug in.
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# Tjpadfan 2010-05-06 15:28
Taking into consideration how both pitchers started the seaspn and how the others are doing, it does look like a steal, but one never knows about these things tll after 2 years.
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# 2010-05-07 09:06
Your analysis may be a bit hasty. As a White Sox fan, I saw Richard make probably 25+ appearances with the big league team and I have never seen a pitcher field his position more poorly, especially on throws to first base. Any team with a player or two who handles the bat well will expose this glaring weakness. Poreda slipping is not a credit to the depth of the White Sox farm club which is always ranked towards or at the bottom of the league. In fact they don't have any home grown players on the parent club right now so that tells you all your need to know about their farm system. The other players in the deal will likely be role players. Peavy has been less than stellar so far. He won't be as good as he was in the NL West, but there is no way he will be this bad for a full season, there is just too much of a track record to fall back on.
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# mickeykoke 2010-05-08 20:55
Richard has looked anything but poor defensively. And.. I am not sure if thats what the Padres main concern is.

It is definitely a credit to the recent success of the Sox farm, plain and simple Poreda had not slipped per se. Beckham was just that good. Aaron was a top prospect in all of BB not JUST Chicago. Hence him being #63 prospect overall!
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# 2010-05-11 16:59
No home-grown players? What do you call Gordon Beckham? Mark Buerhle?
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-1 # 2010-05-13 00:34
Quoting whitesoxfan:
In fact they don't have any home grown players on the parent club right now so that tells you all your need to know about their farm system.


I am a Sox fan too. What about Buehrle and Beckham being on the "parent club"?

Anyways, the Padres got some nice players in the deal. I doubt that any of them, or possibly, all of them combined, will ever match Peavy's overall WAR during the remainder of his contract.

Sorry Mickie Koke, you are wrong.
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# mickeykoke 2010-05-13 08:45
What was I "wrong about"? You were not quoting me. What are you trying to refute? The salary alone was essential to get off the payroll, Some would say that alone was worth the trade, not just me, EXPERTS.

Richard has alone pitched better than Peavy already, including another stellar performance last night for he win. Of course I do not expect Peavy to get bombed, he is legit former CY pitcher however, I do think he will ever be the ace he was in the NL. especially with in that hitters park with the DH. Peavy, like ANY pitcher did benefit SOME from Petco park. Also, if Richard can continue to improve and keep pitching like he has, he ALONE COULD be worth it especially when you factor in the money and the other players they were able to acquire by getting Peavy's salary off the payroll. Players that are paying huge dividends in their 1st place run, Jon Garland, Torrealba and Jerry Hairston Jr. There are MANY intangibles in that trade that go far beyond JUST the talent exchanged in that particular trade.
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# 2010-05-07 09:37
Richard is AT BEST a #3 starter in the NL, and a #4 starter in the AL. Even now, he's probably still a #5 starter in the AL. And hes not that young, hes already 26 (young, but its not like hes a shooting start at 23).

Poreda is a set up man without secondary pitches. THe year he was traded his slider looked awful. His whole delivery changed when he threw it which immediately gave it away. His real value would have been if he could make it as a starter.

Russell was not an AL reliever. He was terrible with the Sox in the majors and just didnt have the stuff or command when with them. Petco is the best thing that could happen for him (along with the history of the Padres being able to transform meh pitchers into good bullpen guys).
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# mickeykoke 2010-05-08 20:47
I am not sure if I would come to the conclusion that Richard at his peak is a #3. Right now he is pitching like a #3, who says he cannot improve?

Poreda is more valuable is a starter IMO as well. However, he could also be of similar value as a dominant closer or set up man
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# 2010-05-07 09:37
Carter was my favorite guy in the bunch, but has dealt with injuries a bit and hasnt progressed as expected. He still has the stuff to make it but is a long way away.

Overall the talent wasnt bad, but to call it a steal for a CY young pitcher in his prime is ludicrous. The Padres got a decent starter, 2 work in progress bullpen arms, and a prospect. That is not a steal for the Padres, in fact many Sox fans who know the talent alot more would say Peavy was the steal.
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+2 # 2010-05-07 09:37
Being in Chicago and a Sox fan, it was good to see Peavy return to his dominating self the other night against KC. He has a great mindset and is a fierce competitor and here's hoping he wins 18 - 20 games this year.

With that said, Richard was so-so in Chicago and Poreda showed flashes of brilliance and then mediocrity. I hope the trade works out for both teams, for I like your squad of youngsters over there and you guys are playing great baseball to begin the year.

Good luck the rest of the year.
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+1 # 2010-05-07 09:45
no way

you have to give more time

last year peavy was 3-0 with a 1.85 era

he is an absolute stud and I guarantee his numbers will be good at the end of the year

he has just had some control issues.

Richard is an average pitcher and none of them will be as good as peavy.

its way to early to say who is the winner of this trade
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+1 # 2010-05-07 09:46
I am a White Sox fan, and I will say judging Jake's stats this year is not fair. He has only had 4 starts, I believe. Last time out, although it was the Royals, he was filthy. His stuff looked like it did when he wont the Cy. I don't think Poreda will ever be more than a bullpen guy, but Clayton is definitely a good pitcher. It will help playing in Petco. Russell had a few good starts for us in the bigs, Carter, who knows at this point. Let's give it a couple years and see how this shakes out.
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+1 # 2010-05-07 12:47
As a White Sox fan, I wouldn't necessarily agree with your sentiments. I've watched Richard and Poreda come up through the system, and also watched them struggle at various times. It is often the case that a change of scenery does a player some good, but it is ALWAYS the case that a change to the NL does good, in particular pitching in PETCO. The deal was made last year, but in fact FOR this year and the next. KW already knew the Sox were out of the running last season, but decided to stock up for this year rather than overpaying for a John Lackey or Rich Harden. Yes, it probably will take a couple years to gauge this trade, but right now, I think it is a wash. We got a Cy Young caliber pitcher helping us NOW, and you have 4 valuable, young arms, two helping you now, and maybe (MAYBE) 2 more to come. Don't fall in love with any of them... At least not yet.
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# 2010-05-08 18:41
Another great start for peavy

W
8 innings
3 hits
2 runs
8 K's
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# mickeykoke 2010-05-08 20:42
Very solid game again by Peavy. He is still my favorite pitcher to watch. I think him making SOME minor arm slot adjustments have helped him dramatically. Good for him!
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# Adams 2010-05-09 19:27
I dont think the Chi Sox got hosed. Williams wanted Jake and he knew what he was getting, just like he knew what he was giving up. We just got the better of the deal. No one snuck anything by the other. Towers was shocked that Williams was still interested.
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# chigeoff 2010-05-10 13:20
Peavy did well for the Sox in Sept and is starting to turn things around after a rough April (one month). The trade was a salary dump and the fact that the Padres could pull it off means it was a successful trade. But, it is too early to say much more than that about the trade. I think the Sox have a top of the rotation guy for several years, while the Padres have a pile of "potential" and some $ left in their wallet.
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+1 # 2010-05-30 11:33
NO, its not a steal, Poreda is not yet known if he will make it to the big club and what kind of an impact will he have, Clayton Richards on the other hand getting him was par value, he will be a quality pitcher for years to come, KT redeemed himself with Richards.
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# mickeykoke 2010-05-30 13:52
Only a projection, obviously it will take 2-3 years to know the true outcome of who were "winners" or losers" but as even in the article showing how some baseball analysts already project or view the trade.

The fact is, the trade allowed the Padres to do many things, include signing FA pitcher Jon Garland. It also gave the Padres arms that are already pitching well. Pitching depth the Padres desperately lacked! The article is pointing out that the trade was beneficial in several ways. Getting young arms, trading a guy who is on the DL with SOME health concern and receiving a nice package in return while on the DL no less and the SAME package that was previously nixed by Peavy.

And... last time I check Peavy wasn't exactly dominating in Chicago, he was touched up today again for I think for 5ER while Richard, is doing very well.

Aaron Poreda is still young, while he has control issues however, is also not allowing many ER at all, the ceiling on him still is VERY high, not TOO many lefties throw 96-99 and even touch 100MPH
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