The Padres face a familiar dilemma this offseason with Adrian Gonzalez.  With constant statements made by the front office expressing how impractical it is to retain Adrian beyond 2011, the Padres have three choices.  They can keep him for now and trade him at the deadline, keep him through next season, or trade him this offseason for the best value.

If the Padres are able to improve the offense this offseason, they could try to compete and reassess at the deadline.  If they are out of contention at the deadline, they would most likely trade him.  If the Padres are still in contention at the deadline, they could keep him and receive two top 50 draft picks in the 2012 draft.

The Padres exceeded expectations winning 90 games and fell just short when eliminated in the final game of the season.  They won with spectacular pitching and timely hitting.  It’s going to be hard for the Padres to compete again next year without significantly improving their offense.  Unfortunately, the Padres don’t have many trade chips to acquire offense, and it’s going to be another extremely weak free agent market.  If the Padres can’t significantly improve their offense and they are offered good value for Adrian this offseason, they should pull the trigger.

There is little doubt that the Padres would receive more value for Adrian now than they would at the deadline.  A full year of Adrian Gonzalez at 5.5 million is still extremely valuable.  A half a year rental would almost certainly have to come with a window to extend for the team acquiring him if the Padres want fair value.

Teams we can immediately rule out:

The Athletics (Daric Barton), Royals (Billy Butler/Kila Ka’aihue), Brewers (Prince Fielder), Indians (Matt LaPorta), Mets (Ike Davis), Phillies (Ryan Howard), Cardinals (Albert Pujols), Astros (Brett Wallace), Reds (Joey Votto), Rockies (Todd Helton), Mariners (Justin Smoak), Braves (Freddie Freeman), Marlins (Gaby Sanchez), and Twins (Justin Morneau) have likely candidates for first base in house.

Not likely:

The Yankees and Tigers could easily be added to the list above.  The Yankees have Mark Teixeira, but Tex and Gonzalez could always split time between first and DH.  It’s an extremely unlikely scenario, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees do something like that.  Money is no object, they have some good prospects, and nothing would please them more than keeping a coveted player away from the Red Sox.  The Tigers have Miguel Cabrera at first, but he isn’t the greatest defensive first baseman in baseball.  Cabrera could be moved to DH opening up a spot for the gold glover at first.  Again, that is a very unlikely scenario.

The Pirates are in full rebuilding mode and haven’t seemed to have much interest in high priced free agents; although, they don’t have many options at 1B.

The Rays don’t seem willing to pony up for their franchise player Carl Crawford.  If they can’t afford Crawford, they can’t afford Gonzalez.

The Diamondbacks may be cutting more payroll and they need to fix their pitching before worrying about anything else.

The Dodgers have James Loney, but he didn’t have a very good season.  They’ve had interest in Gonzalez in the past, but may not be open to a mega contract with the divorce drama.

The Giants Aubrey Huff is a free agent at the end of the season.  I don’t think the Giants have the talent the Padres need in return.  The Giants, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers would all be less likely within the division.

The Blue Jays probably don’t want to give up a bunch of prospects after they just traded their ace to revamp their system.

The Rangers’ Jorge Cantu is going to be a free agent, and Chris Davis has been a disappointment in the major leagues.  They seem willing to spend big bucks to retain Cliff Lee.  If they miss out on the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, could they be willing to trade for and extend Adrian Gonzalez?  They do have Mitch Moreland who can play first base or either corner outfield position.

The Angels have Kendry Morales; although, he can play the outfield.  They also have first baseman Mark Trumbo who had a very good season in AAA this year.  Not even Adrian Gonzalez could pry Mike Trout away from the Angels, but a deal would almost certainly have to start with Peter Bourjos.

The Padres biggest needs are middle infielders and outfielders.  More particularly, center field, short stop and or second base.  They need top of the order table setters and players that can drive in runs.

Teams that could be interested:

Red Sox:  The Sox are the obvious front runner if Adrian is traded.  They covet Adrian and Kevin Youkilis can move to third base to make room.  They have several players the Padres should have interest in.  Jed Lowrie is major league ready and can play short stop, second, or third base. Lowrie has above average power for a middle infielder, gets on base, hits for average, and has average speed.  Ryan Kalish is also major league ready.  Kalish can play all three outfield positions and has an average arm.  He hits for average to all fields, has some power, above average speed, and gets on base.  Jacoby Ellsbury needs no introduction.  He would be the perfect player for Petco Park, and Hoyer inquired about his availability at this year’s deadline.  Casey Kelly is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and has the potential to be a frontline starter in the major leagues.  Jose Iglesias would already be an above average major league short stop defensively.  He has plus plus potential defensively with above average glove, range, arm, and instincts.  He hits for average, but doesn’t have much power or patience.  He also has slightly above average speed.  Kelly and Iglesias played in AA this year and aren’t far off from major league ready.

White Sox:  Kenny Williams is the most daring general manager in baseball.  The White Sox will need a first baseman if Paul Konerko signs with a different team.  I’m not sure the White Sox have what it takes to get Adrian without giving up Gordon Beckham.  They have some interesting prospects in Jared Mitchell and Tyler Flowers; although, Mitchell missed the entire season due to injury and is not close to the major leagues.  Tyler Flowers was a huge disappointing this year hitting just .220 .334 .434 for AAA Charlotte.  Maybe a three way trade with one of John Danks or Gavin Floyd going to another team, and that teams prospects going to the Padres could work.

Cubs:  They traded away impending free agent Derek Lee and Xavier Nady will join him in free agency.  The Cubs will need a first baseman this offseason and have some prospects/players the Padres should be interested in.  Starlin Castro would be the first player Hoyer asks about, but is the most untouchable player the Cubs have.  Tyler Colvin had a pretty good rookie season hitting .254 .316 .500 as the Cubs left fielder. Colvin is a great athlete with average or better tools across the board.  He can play center field, but is better suited for a corner.  He isn’t a very patient hitter and he’s left handed which isn’t ideal for Petco Park.  Brett Jackson is very intriguing.  He has a plus arm and range in center field.  He’s patient, he hits for average, power, and steals bases.  Jackson hit .297 .395 .493 between A+ and AA this season.  Andrew Cashner has some exciting stuff, but he’s probably better suited for relief.  Jay Jackson and Christopher Archer are starters with good stuff.  Wellington Castillo is a good defensive catcher with power who’s blocked by Geovany Soto.  The Cubs player of the year Brandon Guyer hit .344 .398 .588 with 58 extra base hits and 30 stolen bases in 33 attempts.  Guyer is another good athlete capable of playing all three outfield positions. He has plus speed, an above average arm, and plenty of raw power.

Orioles:  The Orioles tried to sign Mark Teixeira as a free agent before the Evil Empire swooped in with their bags of cash.  They seem willing to spend if it’s for the right player and Adrian is very comparable to Tex.  The Orioles need a first baseman and have some good young players the Padres could be interested in.  Adam Jones would be a good fit for Petco Park and the Orioles could use Felix Pie in center field.  They could have interest in Josh Bell for third base, and the Orioles have a ton of pitching.

Nationals:  The Nationals need a first baseman if they cannot re-sign Adam Dunn, and seem willing to spend some money.  The big question is, are they willing to give up some of their young pieces to trade for Adrian?  The Nats have some good up and coming middle infielders in Ian Desmond and Danny Espinoza, but see them as the future at short stop and second base.  Justin Maxwell has plus speed, he’s an above average defender in center field, and he has above average power.  Unfortunately, Maxwell hasn’t had much success in at the big league level.  Michael Burgess also has some exciting tools, but he’s a right fielder.

Adrian Gonzalez had a minor surgery done on his non-throwing shoulder two weeks ago.  The surgery went very well, and he should be ready for the beginning of the 2011 season.  This won’t deter teams from calling and asking about Adrian’s availability.  It’s still going to take a lot to pry Adrian away from the Padres.  It’s going to be an interesting offseason.