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Padres Off Season Review PDF Print E-mail
Voice of the Fan - Visitors Pass
Written by Mickey Koke   
Friday, 04 March 2011 14:09
Sharing is Caring

hoyer_black_400The Padres started the off-season making a statement early on with a substantial trade. The Padres trading for a true center fielder in Cameron Maybin with All-Star potential. The Padres wanted to continue their philosophy of bringing players into Petco Park who they feel will, as has been said, "play Petco Park into an advantage." Maybin, just 24, was the first of several acquisitions in a very busy off season for Jed Hoyer and Co.

 

The Cameron Maybin trade: 

 
The Padres traded for a potential star center fielder for relievers, Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica to the Florida Marlins. The Padres did not give up their three top 'pen arms (Bell, Adams, Gregerson) and they got a 24-year-old five-tool OF with massive potential. I believe this is a deal that benefits both parties. The Padres deal from a strength (the bullpen), and get a young, controllable high ceiling player at a premium position.

Of course the jury is still out on Cameron Maybin, however, I wouldn't say Webb is exactly set in stone to close out games starting the 2011 season. Webb is not what you would call "proven" either at this point. Cameron Maybin has been one of the most highly touted players in recent years with less than 600 MLB AB's. Most high-school players usually take a good 2,500 AB's to be able to fully evaluate a player's potential. Right now, the Padres upgrade at CF, one of their weaknesses.


Trading from the team's strength (pitching) for a premium position centerfield (which was an obvious weakness) appears to be an upgrade especially when considering: A) The Padres have massive bullpen depth which meant they (Webb/Mujica) were expendable, B) The Padres have acquired a legit potential All-Star in return and C) They did not have to trade their two-time All-Star closer, setup man or even 7th inning guy to obtain him -- a low-risk very high reward move. Most moves in baseball are "risks." You have to give up talent in order to receive legitimate talent, or.. "potential."


The Adrian Gonzalez trade: 


When the Padres initially made the trade, I would have preferred to see the Padres acquire MLB-ready talent. However, the Padres acquired the Red Sox's #1, #3 and #6 prospects in their system. Two of those players, Anthony Rizzo and Casey Kelly are in the Top 100 prospects according to Jonathan Mayo, and according to Baseball America, which has Casey Kelly at #31 overall and Anthony Rizzo at #75. The Padres received top tier talent from a deep farm system. Rizzo and Kelly could make a substantial impact in 2012. Rizzo was regarded

(by some) as the Sox's best power-hitting prospect. 


Jonathan Meyo has Reymond Fuentes (the lessor of the three prospects) as the 8th best outfield prospect in all of baseball. One GM said he thought Fuentes was actually the better prospects out of the three. 


"I think the Padres found the right trading partner in the Red Sox, a team with deep pockets and a deep farm system. It's never desirable to have to trade an Adrian Gonzalez away, but I think the Padres did well to add to the coffer of young players they already have," said MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo.  "Rizzo is now the heir apparent at first base, and Kelly has the chance to be a rotation mainstay. Even better, both are probably a year, or less, away. And Fuentes gives the system a premium athlete with some baseball skills."


This trade was inevitable, the Padres had zero chance of re-signing Adrian. It would have actually been easier for the front office to go into the year (coming off a 90 win season), keeping together the core players trying not to further deter fans from previous fire sales or fallouts with star or fan favorite players, such as Trevor Hoffman and Jake Peavy, just to name two. However, Jed Hoyer and Co. understood that Adrian's value during the year would not bring in the haul of elite prospects that they did receive by pulling the trigger before the 2011 campaign. 


The Padres shoring up the middle infield:

 
The Padres acquired Jason Bartlett from the Tampa Bay Rays. San Diego will also receive a player to be named later from Tampa Bay in exchange for Brandon Gomes, Adam Russell, Cesar Ramos, and Cole Figueroa. The PTBNL will be a minor leaguer and will be worked out in Spring Training. While the Padres gave up two relievers and four bodies for a shortstop, none of them were in the long-term plans for the Padres.

 

The Padres will have stability at shortstop for the first time since (fan favorite) Khalil Greene. The Padres avoided arbitration with Jason Bartlett and agreed to sign him to a two-year deal, the team announced. The sides agreed to an $11MM deal. Bartlett earns $4MM in 2011, $5.5MM in 2012 and either $5.5MM or a $1.5MM buyout in 2013. Jason Bartlett will figure to provide more reliable offense at the top of the order, something the Padres struggled with mightily last year. While Bartlett is coming off a down year, he was also battling a few different nagging leg injuries. The Padres believe that Jason will bounce back nicely, both offensively and defensively.  With the uncertainty of Everth Cabrera (his atrocious start accompanied by injuries), the Padres had to emphasize the middle infield in Petco Park, as the team will focus on "playing Petco park into an advantage." The only way to do that is to be strong up the middle. 


Speaking of strong up the middle, the Padres also signed free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. The 33-year-old, four-time Gold Glover signed a two-year, $11.5MM deal with the Padres this off-season. The deal includes an $8MM club option for 2013 with a $2MM buyout. The Padres have someone they feel will also provide some spark at the top of the lineup, alongside Bartlett, while being sound defensively up the middle, without losing leadership qualities of former Padre David Eckstein. While David Eckstein was "scrappy" and like having another coach on the field, he struggled to provide much punch at the position while showing limited range.

 

The bullpen: 


The Padres lost Webb and Mujica to the Marlins and then Ramos, Russell and Gomes to the Rays -- none of which were the Padres top relief pitchers -- and added with the signing of Qualls, Moseley and Flores on a minor league deal. Emerging pitching prospects such as Simon Castro and Corey Luebke, and even Wade LeBlanc to some degree, who will possibly alter his role due to Tim Stuaffer's vastly improved season, will possibly be moved to the 'pen. The Padres can replace the players dealt this off-season with some of the aforementioned pitchers easily -- Ramos, Russell and Gomes are hardly "proven" pitchers; and Webb could have set-up or closer stuff, but is also still quite a bit away from being a "sure thing". 


I would say Dustin Moseley could easily take over for Edward Mujica. Chad Qualls, who I will get to later, is looking for a bounce back year and can replace Webb. And let's not forget about the emergence of Ernesto Frieri, who looked to have as good, if not better "stuff" than any of the pitchers traded, and who had success along with a closer-like mentality. Ramos, Russell and Gomes were not significant factors in last year's spectacular relief run and some of the new additions or current pitchers could have different roles to play in this year, such as Wade LeBlanc. With the additions and some of the players coming back from last year, if anything I believe the pen is as strong if not stronger than last year. 


The Padres dealt from a position of depth (relief pitching that is easily found in spacious Petco) to bolster their middle infield and to acquire a potential future All-Star centerfielder. You know, trying to improve on Jed Hoyer and Co.'s philosophy of, "playing Petco park into an advantage". The new additions on the surface may look minor, but to Jed's credit the 'pen is not weakened much at all.


Notable Free Agent signings: 


Aaron Harang was brought in by the Padres to essentially replace the "innings eater" role that Jon Garland provided last year. The Padres signed the San Diego native on a one year, $4MM contract, which includes $5MM mutual option for 2012 with a $500K buyout. The Padres are banking on Aaron Harnag to have a bounce-back year as he is getting out of the NL Central alone, not to mention one of the most hitting-friendly parks in all of baseball, Cincinnati. With Harang's potential going from one extreme in Cincinnati to the next, in spacious Petco Park where homers go to die, the Padres feel like they didn't lose anything by Jon Garland hitting free agency. Bringing in a veteran pitcher could be a steal considering all the intangibles.


The Padres obvious loss this off-season was All-Star first baseman, Adrian Gonzalez. So, the Padres needed to address first base. Some national writers thought the Padres would wait for other big name free agent signings, however, the Padres had their eye set on Brad Hawpe. Hawpe, 31, cannot replace All-Star slugger Adrian Gonzalez at first base per se, will take over on the field and in the lineup. Hawpe, who declined arbitration from the Rays, will not cost the Padres a draft pick. Last year Hawpe struggled splitting time between Tampa Bay and Colorado, hitting a career low (.245/.338/.419) line with 32 extra base hits. Despite his disappointing season, Hawpe has had very consistent numbers across the board that are very attractive despite last year's mediocre performance. He plays very well outside of Coors Field hitting .273/.369/.470 and has been good with RISP (.266/.388/.468) and more importantly excelled in Petco Park hitting .281/.371/.451. Hawpe is a career .279/.373/.490 hitter.  

 

One of Brad Hawpe's most appealing stats is his home and away splits. Players in Colorado, (historically speaking) have always had extreme offensive splits playing at home verses on the road, being as Colorado has been one of the better hitting parks in baseball. This historically speaking has not affected Hawpe. Career at home: (.285 .377 .509) Career away: (.273 .369 .470). He has been very consistent and had (maybe more importantly) success in the NL West Division. His career average in Petco park: (.281 .371 .451) Dodger stadium: (.361 .436 .646) AT&T park: (.217 .356 .396) Chase field: (223 .353 .424) Coors field: (.286 .378 .513).

 

Obviously these stat-crunching type numbers came into play when Jed Hoyer and the front office brass were considering any player that would come to Petco Park to replace Adrian Gonzalez. A natural first baseman by trade, Hawpe was forced into the outfield in Colorado because of their face of the franchise, former All-Star first baseman Todd Helton. The Padres believe that Hawpe will flourish in Petco Park and feel more comfortable back at his natural position.

 

The Padres signed Dustin Moseley who has the versatility to either start or be a reliever. He went  4-4 with a 4.96 ERA, 33K's, 27 walks with a 1.42. WHIP. Moving from one of the more hitter-friendly parks in all of baseball, New York, coming into Petco could do wonders for Moseley's numbers. Make no mistake about it, he is not a front of the rotation starter. The Padres view Moseley as a candidate for 5th starter "who will end up in the bullpen if he doesn't win the fifth starter spot," stated MLB.com's Corey Brock, who also noted that Bud Black worked with Moseley in Anaheim when he was the pitching coach for the Angels.


The Padres also signed Jorge Cantu, who will get time playing at both third base, to spell Chase Headley, and first base to spell Hawpe, in situational match-ups, and/or whoever is swinging the hot bat. The Padres signed Jorge Cantu to a one-year deal worth $850K. Not too shabby for a player one year removed from batting .289 /.345/ .443 while driving in 100 RBI's with 16 HR's. Only two years removed from his best season, in which he hit 29 HR's with 95 RBI with the Florida Marlins, he is coming off his worst year batting only .256/.304/.392 in 515 plate appearances for the Marlins and Rangers last season. The trend this off-season by the Padres' front office is projection. Like many of the other aforementioned players, including Ryan Ludwick returning, the signings of Cantu, Harang, Bartlett (trade) and Hawpe all have excellent chances of having rebound years based on their track records.


The Padres signed utility infielder Kevin Frandsen, who will make $575,000 if he makes the Opening Day roster. He is basically a lock seeing as the Padres looked to a cheaper alternative to Jerry Hairston Jr. With Orlando Hudon and Jason Bartlett at second base and shortstop respectively, I would say the Padres are set up the middle. 


The Padres also added three catchers. Rob Johnson, who the Padres acquired via trade from the Seattle Mariners, and former top prospect Guillermo Quiroz, both of whom have had significant injuries though are regarded as very solid defensive catchers. The Padres also signed veteran backstop Greg Zaun. All three catchers will add depth going into the year after the departure of Yorvit Torrealba. Nick Hundley has been rewarded the starting role for his continued progress. Zaun, the favorite to break camp, is a well-traveled switch hitter who could provide a leadership quality along with some pop. Again, all three have had injuries that have deterred their careers. 


The Padres also swooped in, to some surprise, by signing Chad Qualls. Qualls, who has been an elite set up man and closer in the past, is also coming off his worst year. The contract is for one year with a team option for 2012 --  Qualls will earn $1.5MM next season and it will cost the Padres $1.05MM to buy out the 2012 option. Qualls has a career 3.82 ERA despite a miserable 2010... Despite an abnormal Sabermetric stats for those number crunchers, his ground ball rate was typically high (55%) and defense independent pitching stats like FIP and xFIP suggest Qualls should have had an ERA closer to 4.00. What does stick out is his super inflated BABIP and BB/9. I do think he'll bounce back though -- he was unlucky and Petco is a much better place for a pitcher than Chase. He has a BABIP of 399 last year and a LOB percentage of 53%, chances are BABIP goes significantly lower into 330s at worst and the LOB % goes a lot higher.


He could provide more flexibility tif the Padres decide to deal Heath Bell at the trade deadline. Mike Adams has recently been open about wanting to close eventually.

 

LF - Ludwick shouldn't be as bad as he was in the second half and he can't be as bad as whoever the Padres had there before him (Kyle Blanks, Scott Hairston, etc.) Our LFers hit .219/.305/.337 last year.


CF - Maybin is an upgrade over Gwynn even if he duplicates his less-than-spectacular numbers from last year. He also has a chance to become a star player. Our CFers hit .234/.323/.347 last year.


RF - Venable is still there and could get better, at least the same with possible upgrade. Venable would be my sleeper pick to have a monster year in 2011.


3B - Chase Headley, is projected the same as Venable -- at least the same with a possible upgrade. Adding Cantu, could be huge baring any significant injuries, and Headley bulking up this off season could really help his doubles power. 


SS and 2B- with Bartlett and Hudson are major improvements overall, considering what they bring to the table both offensively and defensively.


C -  This really depends on how Nick Hundley handles more of a workload and who the backup is. I think this has the potential to go either way. It could be more productive just as easily as it could be less productive. I have been one of the biggest believers in Nick. I believe he could surprise a lot of people this year in all aspects of his game.


1B- Obvious downgrade. The big production spot in the lineup has lost Adrian. However, the Padres are adding both Hawpe and Cantu, two players with proven track records of producing... Being RBI guys in the middle of the order might not be as a dramatic drop as some may believe, while bringing in prospects top bolster the system, which was inevitable.


The starting rotation: 

 
1. Mat Latos

2. Clayton Richard

3. Aaron Harang

4. Tim Stauffer

5. Wade LeBlanc/Dustin Moseley


With top prospects Simon Castro and Corey Luebke waiting in the wings.


Bull-pen:

 

Vying for a spot-

Greg Burk

Luis Perdomo

George Kontos

Samuel Deduno 

Evan Scribner


 

Holding down the fort-

Dustin Moseley

Ernesto Frieri

Chad Qualls

Joe Thatcher

Luke Gregerson

Mike Adams

Heath Bell


The lineup will be interchangeable all year. It will depend on match ups, the hot bat etc. Here are some examples of what we could see throughout the year.

 

1. Jason Bartlett

2. Orlando Hudson

3. Brad Hawpe

4. Ryan Ludwick

5. Will Venable

6. Chase Headley

7. Nick Hundley 

8. Cameron Maybin

 

1. Will Venable

2. Orlando Hudson

3. Brad Hawpe

4. Ryan Ludwick

5. Chase Headley

6. Nick Hundley

7. Cameron Maybin

8. Jason Bartlett

 

1. Will Venable

2. Orlando Hudson

3. Chase Headley

4. Ryan Ludwick

5. Brad Hawpe

6 Cameron Maybin

7. Nick Hundley

8. Jason Bartlett

 

Bench: 

Chris Denorfia

Jorge Cantu

Gregg Zaun

Kevin Frandsen

Eric Patterson 


Cantu will obviously see time in the middle of the order at times as well. Cameron Maybin could also have a shot at batting #1 or #2 on occasion, it will totally depend on situational match ups and performance. The Padres could also use Bartlett in the #2 hole as well.

 

The Padres also have several players that will be on the AAA level that could play a role during the season baring injuries or poor performance.

 

Jesus Guzman

Oscar Salazar

Aaron Cunningham

Kyle Blanks

Rob Johnson

Luis Durango

Mike Baxter

Everth Cabrera

Guillermo Quiroz

Kyle Phillips


 

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