To get a ball over the right field fence that is.

With all the recent talk about the fences, we thought it was necessary to dispel all the common misconceptions people are throwing around. We’re hoping by now that everyone realizes that Petco Park is an extreme pitchers park and suppresses all offense.  The offensive home and away splits are staggering. The new regime has implemented a philosophy before they even watched how the park plays on a daily basis.  Wait, what!?  Yes, a philosophy that was implemented solely using statistical measurements without watching how the park plays.

That's reckless as hell if you ask me, and unfair to the loyal Padres fans who have endured Padres games day in and day out for years. Jed Hoyer admittedly did not understand just how extreme this park plays before this philosophy was implemented.

The first and most common misconception is “The Petco Park Advantage.” There isn’t a shred of evidence that proves playing half our games in Petco Park is an advantage. In fact, there is evidence on the contrary. The only argument for “The Petco Park Advantage” seems to be that we have had good teams since Petco was built. This is true, but it has nothing to do with Petco Park.

Before the season, I (Brian Koke) created a statistic I refer to as the “Home Field Advantage” statistic. I have made calculations that rank each teams "Home Field Advantage." These calculations were made before this season and do not reflect any games this year. People like to point out that we normally have a better record at home than we do on the road. Well, so does every other team in baseball. In fact, every single team had more wins at home than on the road during this particular time period. Having the last out automatically gives you a competitive advantage.

The calculations are simple. I added each teams home wins from 2004-2010 and subtracted it by their away wins for the same time period (2004-2010). Meaning the higher number, the more wins they had at home compared to the road and the more that team benefited from playing in their home ball park. The ranking is from 1-30. #1 being the team that benefited most from their home park and #30 being the team that benefited least from their home park.

Not only does this statistic show that the Padres do not have a tremendous advantage at home, it proves the Padres have had a tremendous disadvantage at home since the ball park was built.  Furthermore, the Padres had the 2^nd best road record in all of baseball for 2010. In contrast, there were 17 other teams with the same or better record at home. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that we play worse than most teams at home and better than most on the road. People have attempted to dismiss the legitimacy of this statistic by pointing out that the Phillies are near the bottom and have been very successful. Well, this statistic doesn’t measure how good a team is. It specifically shows how much better a team does at home than away, and it compares that to the rest of baseball. It specifically shows that Petco Park is not an advantage.

This year has been no different. We have the 3^rd worst home record in baseball and the 10^th best road record. Further proof is in the home and road run differentials. This is found by comparing how many runs we score to how many runs our pitching staff gives up. We have had a better run differential on the road than we have at home since Petco Park was built. How is there any doubt whatsoever that Petco Park has not been advantageous?

We do think it is possible to build a team that fits this park, but is it realistic? Of course hitters like Tony Gwynn Sr. and Ichiro could do well here, but how many of those players can realistically be on a team with the Padres payroll? We think it’s a very bad idea to limit the type of players you can go after by trying to build a team that fits the park. The extreme nature of Petco Park is going to make it very hard for the Padres to sign, or keep any decent offensive players. There should be no doubt about the psychological affects Petco Park has on our hitters. We’ve heard several players talk about how extreme Petco Park is.

We saw some of these comments in a recent article by Don Norcross on signonsandiego.com. Players were asked if they were looking forward to getting away from Petco Park. Jason Bartlett’s answer was, “Definitely.” Bartlett added, “I could sense frustration on a lot of guys.”

Norcross wrote, “Playing anywhere other than Petco, Ludwick figures he’d have twice as many homers. “I could be at 10 instead of five, no doubt about it, which builds confidence,” he said. “I’ve told everyone, I’ve had a rough go here (since coming to San Diego from St. Louis last July).  “But I think the difference between last year and this year is I’ve made a lot of hard outs, more consistent, hard contact.  “Do the fans in San Diego see that? Probably not. Because all they’re doing is looking at the box scores. But my manager sees it. He tells me. And my teammates see it.”

Bartlett also said, “I don’t want this to sound like an excuse, but for the offense, it’s better to get on the road.”

Last week, Tim Sullivan of signonsandiego.com quoted Chase Headley as saying, “I don’t care who you bring into this ballpark, it’s not going to be an offensive club.”

According to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com, Adrian Gonzalez has been quoted as saying, "If you put the best lineup in baseball in our park, the numbers would be bad," He also reportedly said, "When we get on that plane out of San Diego, every hitter is a happy hitter."

Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko were very outspoken about their displeasure with Petco Park. Nevin was quoted as saying, "That's definitely out at Qualcomm, Nevin said a day later. I'll be honest, there's not a park in baseball I would have even thought twice about it not being a homer. I've never hit a ball that good and have it not go out, I know that." Nevin also referred to Petco Park as, “Barry Bonds-proof.”

It’s not just our players taking notice. Current Pirates Manager Clint Hurdle saw a lot of games in Petco Park during his tenure as the Rockies Manager. Hurdle recently said, "The damage that was done was to the home team when this park was built," when asked about Petco Park.

Catcher A. J. Pierzynski has said, "In this park, just throw it down the middle and let them hit it and let the guys in the outfield run it down,"

How about players getting into slumps at home and carrying those same slumps on the road? People say, "Well, they’re in a hitter’s ball park, so they should be hitting.” Well, it’s not that easy. When you are in a slump and you change your approach and/or swing, it can carry over to the road and be hard to break.

The next misconception people argue is that the opposition doesn’t have trouble hitting here. I’ve even heard General Manager Jed Hoyer attempt to make this excuse. Well, it’s simply not true. The opposition has only averaged approximately 5 more home runs per season than the Padres at home. That difference is marginal. Furthermore, the Padres have averaged 3.78 runs per game while the opposition has only averaged 3.88 runs per game. Again, it’s a marginal difference.

Another argument is that moving in the fences won’t produce more home runs, or offense because of the atmospheric conditions.  Obviously this is a completely ridiculous argument, and I’m not playing down the effects the atmospheric conditions have on the park.  Anyone watching a significant amount of Padres games has seen several balls caught at or near the wall that could have been home runs if the fences were moved in 10-20 feet. Moving in the fences will also change the way pitchers go after hitters. Pitchers are able to be more aggressive because mistakes turn into outs more often than not in Petco Park. This is why Petco Park even has an effect on walks and strikeouts. Players walk less and strikeout more in Petco Park. Moving in the fences will make pitchers less aggressive and create more offense in general as well as home runs.

People have also suggested that the "move in the fences" argument is an excuse for the poor offense we’ve seen this year. I don’t think anyone is using that as an excuse. I’m not pretending that this year’s poor offensive output is due to the park; although, it has played a part. Like every year, there is a massive split in home and away offensive production. The Padres have averaged 4.94 runs per game on the road and a pathetic 2.57 runs per game at home. My argument for moving in the fences in, is and always has been about entertainment.

The last argument is about entertainment value. People argue that winning creates excitement regardless of how the park plays. Obviously this is a subjective argument that I do not agree with. While winning is the most important factor, we’ve established that Petco Park doesn’t help us win more games. Last year was one of the most successful seasons this franchise has seen in terms of win-loss record and it was one of the most boring seasons I’ve ever witnessed (2,131,774, 11th of 16 NL teams in attendance).  We realize that not everyone likes the brand of baseball we like.  Some people may want to see pitchers duels every game like we see in Petco Park. Some people may want to see Coors Field bash fests.  Our preference and suggestion is that we make Petco a fair park that doesn’t favor pitchers or hitters. If anything, the changes we’re suggesting will still slightly favor pitchers. We believe this brand of baseball appeals to every fan. We'll see pitchers duels, blowouts, and everything in between. We won't see swingman starters with 6+ ERA come in here and shut us out. This is an example of the extremism of Petco Park diluting the quality of baseball.

I can almost guarantee that someone will make a comment about not wanting to make Petco a band box, so I will reiterate again that we do not want them to bring it to the other extreme. We want them to make Petco a fair park that can appeal to every fan. If you are against moving in the fences please explain why and ask yourself these questions.

• What is wrong with a fair park that doesn’t favor pitchers or hitters?
• What is wrong with a park that hitters and pitchers would both want to play in?
• Why should we limit ourselves on the players we can pursue, retain, and draft because of the park we play in?

That sounds like a disadvantage to me.

The changes we would like to see involve moving in the right field fences. The old regime was exploring possibilities before the Moores divorce. Here are some of the pictures lining the possible modifications:

This is the satellite view of what Brian wants.